2013年3月29日星期五
29 Mar 2013 Kuala Lumpur Most Actives
2013年3月28日星期四
FINALLY, S&P 500 CLOSES AT NEW ALL-TIME HIGH: Here's What You Need To Know
First the scoreboard:
Dow: 14,574, +48.6 pts, +0.3 percent
S&P 500: 1,568, +6.0 pts, +0.3 percent
NASDAQ: 3,267, +11.0 pts, +0.3 percent
And now the top stories:
- Today's stock market rally came in the face of four pieces of disappointing economic data.
- The final reading of Q4 GDP growth came in at +0.4 percent, which was below expectations for +0.5 percent.
- Initial jobless claims jumped to 357k, which was higher than the 340k economists were expecting.
- The Chicago PMI fell to 52.4 from 56.8 a month ago. Economists were looking for a reading of 56.5.
- Rounding out the economic reports was the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing index, which improved to just -5 from last month's reading of -10. Economists were looking for -3.
10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell
s_bukley / Shutterstock.com
- Markets in Asia were mostly lower in overnight trading. The Japanese Nikkei retreated 1.3 percent and the Shanghai Composite tumbled 2.8 percent as property stocks once again met renewed selling pressure. Markets in Europe are mostly higher this morning with the exception of Spain, which is currently down 0.5 percent. In the United States, futures point to a mixed open.
- German retail sales rose 0.4 percent in February, above economists' estimates for a 0.6 percent decline, but less than the 3.0 percent gain posted in January. On a year-over-year basis, sales fell 2.2 percent, well below the 1.2 percent expansion predicted by economists and January's 2.5 percent year-over-year gain.
- The ranks of the unemployed in Germany increased by 13,000 in March. Economists had predicted that the number of unemployed persons would fall by 2,000 after an unchanged number in February. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.9 percent.
- Everyone expected bank runs in Cyprus today when banks opened their doors after a two-weeks long closure forced by contentious negotiations with the EU over how to bail out the banking system. The banks re-opened at 6 AM ET, though, and so far, there are no signs of a run on the banks. This is probably due to the restrictive capital controls enacted by Cyprus to counter a run – Cypriots are only allowed to withdraw a maximum of 300 euros per day for the next week. The haircut forced on uninsured depositors and a previous plan to levy a nationwide "tax" on all deposits has likely shattered confidence in the safety of Cypriot bank accounts.
- The European Central Bank released February data for deposit levels in banks around the euro area today, a data point of particular interest in the wake of the bailout deal in Cyprus, which forced a haircut on uninsured depositors. The data revealed that deposits fell 2.2 percent in Cyprus in February, ahead of the crisis that began in mid-March. Meanwhile, in Greece, deposit levels actually rose 2 percent, and deposits at Italian banks – those thought to be most at risk of contagion from Cyprus – rose 1.3 percent. The release of the March data next month will show the impact of the Cyprus crisis on deposit levels in other euro area countries.
- Credit rating agency Standard & Poors is pushing to have 17 lawsuits filed against it by 17 different state attorneys general consolidated into a single, federal lawsuit. The firm has come under fire for putting high ratings on mortgage-backed securities that went bust and sent financial markets into a panic in 2008. If S&P is successful at consolidating the state lawsuits, it could streamline the damages that the rater ultimately has to pay out.
- In the United States, the final estimate for fourth-quarter GDP is due out at 8:30 AM ET. Economists again expect the data to reveal a 0.5 percent expansion in U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter, though the second estimate, released at the end of February, only measured a 0.1 percent gain.
- Weekly jobless claims figures are also released at 8:30. Economists predict 340,000 initial claims were filed in the week ended March 23, up slightly from the 336,000 new claims recorded in the previous week. Continuing claims are expected to have edged down to 3.041 million from 3.053 million the week before.
- At 9:45, the Chicago PMI March survey, which gives a glimpse into regional manufacturing conditions, is released. Economists expect the headline index to tick down to 56.5 from 56.8 last month, indicating a moderate but robust pace of expansion in the region (any reading over 50 on the index indicates growth).
- The final economic data release comes at 11:00 AM with the release of the Kansas City Fed's March manufacturing survey. Economists expect the index to rebound to -3 from last month's dismal -10 figure (any number below 0 on the index indicates contraction). Last month, the steep drop in manufacturing activity was blamed on the effects of federal spending cuts that formed the sequester.
28 Mar 2013 Kuala Lumpur Closing Stock Prices
28 Mar 2013 Kuala Lumpur Most Actives
2013年3月27日星期三
STOCKS MAKE BIG COMEBACK: Here's What You Need To Know
First the scoreboard:
Dow: 14,526, -33.5 pts, -0.2 percent
S&P 500: 1,562, -0.9 pts, -0.0 percent
NASDAQ: 3,256, +4.0 pts, +0.1 percent
And now the top stories:
- In case you haven't been following, the S&P 500 is just a handful of points away from its all-time high of 1,565.
- The U.S. markets actually began the day deep in the red. Much of the bad news was coming out of Europe where Italy is in disarray and Cyprus makes plans to reopen its banks tomorrow.
- For the next seven days, Cypriot bank account holders will not be able to cash any checks, however they will be welcome to make deposits. Also, all card transactions will be capped at 5,000 euros. These capital controls are intended to prevent a run on the banks, which would be devastating for the very financial system that Europe is trying to preserve.
- "The Troika have managed to exponentially increase concerns on how safe retail deposits are in the eurozone," wrote Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards. "It matters not that the final Cypriot bailout plan did not touch smaller savers unlike the original proposal of a 6¾% tax (haircut) for ALL deposits under €100,000 in ALL banks (including foreign bank subsidiaries). The fact that this plan was originally sanctioned, despite deposit insurance, will have shaken small saver confidence to the bone. It certainly has shaken my confidence."
- In the U.S., pending home sales fell by 0.4 percent in February, which was a bit worse than the 0.3 percent expected by economists.
- Still, the overall trend in the U.S. housing market continues to be as strong as ever. Anecdotal evidence suggests some local markets may be getting a bit too hot for comfort. "People are fighting other people," said Jeff Gundlach of the Southern California housing market. "It's almost the same type of environment I remember from the late 1980s."
The Euro Is Breaking Down This Morning...
There are a lot of things to worry about in Europe: Italian political chaos. Cyprus. The mouthing off of Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem.
As such the Euro is hitting a 4 month low.
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SocGen's Sebastien Galy writes:
We almost reached our first target of 1.28 in EURUSD, opening up the next level at 1.26, both levels driven by our models. It suggests a strategy of selling on short covering to target the new lower range with a bottom at 1.26. As a reminder our year end forecast goes into the 1.20s. Models have worked surprisingly well for eurusd (for us not our twin), the last short covering came close to 1.31 given by the 80 percent quantile model, though our traders nailed it perfectly with a call for 1.3050.
10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell
REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni
- Markets in Asia were higher in overnight trading, with both the Japanese Nikkei and Shanghai Composite both up 0.2 percent. European markets are in the red, with Spain leading the way lower, currently down 1.5 percent. Italy is also quite weak due to political chaos and the difficulty the country has in forming a government. In the United States, futures point to a negative open.
- The final estimate for French fourth-quarter GDP came in at -0.3 percent, matching previous estimates as well as expectations. The French economy is dealing with a contracting manufacturing sector and rising unemployment at a time when the broader euro zone is feeling the pressures of a deepening recession.
- The final estimate for British fourth-quarter GDP also came in at -0.3 percent, matching previous estimates and expectations. However, year over year, GDP growth was only 0.2 percent, slightly below the 0.3 percent growth expected by economists.
- Cypriot officials are moving forward with the wind-down of the country's two largest banks following a bailout deal made with the EU on Sunday night. Cypriot central bank chief Panicos Demetriades told reporters at a press conference that although they could not give specific numbers yet, 40 percent of uninsured deposits at Bank of Cyprus could be lost, and 80 percent of uninsured deposits at Laiki could be wiped out.
- The Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee said Wednesday that U.K. banks needed to raise £25 billion of capital by the end of the year in order to bring capital ratios to at least 7 percent. Though the FPC is not allowed to name individual banks, analysts said RBS, in which the U.K. government has an 81 percent stake, is probably dealing with the biggest shortfall.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia said that the country's largest banks have increased their exposure to Asia more than four-fold in the past five years as European banks have retreated from the region and Australia has stepped up trade relations with countries like China. Slowing loan demand at home has also pushed Australian banks toward more lending in the economies of their Asian trading partners.
- Euro zone economic confidence fell to 90.0 in March from last month's 91.1 index reading, marking the first decline in sentiment since October. Economists had predicted a smaller tick down on the index to 90.5. The survey was largely completed before the crisis in Cyprus unfolded, which will likely weigh further on confidence going forward.
- The European Commission is working on bringing an antitrust case against 16 global banks for alleged collusion in the credit derivatives market. Credit derivatives are largely traded "over the counter" on an ad-hoc basis between two parties, and authorities are trying to determine whether the banks acted in a way that stifled competition from exchanges.
- February pending home sales data are due out in the U.S. at 10 AM ET. Economists predict that sales fell 0.3 percent from the month before after posting a 4.5 percent gain in January, but were still up 8.7 percent from February 2012.
- Four Federal Reserve presidents will give speeches today. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is up first at 11 AM ET, followed by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren at 11:30. At 12:15 PM, Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks, and Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota finishes things up with a speech at 1 PM.
27 Mar 2013 Kuala Lumpur Closing Stock Prices
27 Mar 2013 Kuala Lumpur Most Actives
Volume Close Change % Change
Tebrau 39,453,100 1.480 +0.010 +0.68
GPRO 37,560,800 0.085 -0.010 -10.53
CIMB 31,427,200 7.690 +0.330 +4.48
MayBank 27,561,000 9.390 +0.100 +1.08
Compugt 23,739,800 0.080 unch unch
UEMLand 23,718,000 2.680 unch unch
Gamuda 18,376,800 4.140 +0.150 +3.76
GenM 15,640,500 3.600 +0.150 +4.35
YTL 15,597,500 1.670 +0.020 +1.21
KSK 15,238,800 0.620 +0.030 +5.08
DSCSol 14,689,600 0.095 +0.010 +11.76
Solutn 14,114,700 0.155 +0.010 +6.90
Axiata 13,818,200 6.510 +0.020 +0.31
Sime 13,541,300 9.210 +0.020 +0.22
Patimas 13,217,400 0.035 unch unch
Luster 12,778,000 0.100 unch unch
Ingenco 12,194,000 0.095 unch unch
Tenaga 12,176,700 7.120 +0.020 +0.28
SKPetro 11,726,300 3.060 +0.020 +0.66
Muhibbah10,958,100 1.190 +0.020 +1.71
Perisai 10,427,700 1.110 +0.020 +1.83
Zelan 10,117,400 0.300 -0.010 -3.23
Protasco 9,858,600 1.140 +0.020 +1.79
DiGi 9,409,200 4.610 +0.020 +0.44
Vis 8,805,000 0.245 +0.040 +19.51
AirAsia 8,780,200 2.770 -0.010 -0.36
IHH 7,075,700 3.600 unch unch
Maxis 6,853,900 6.520 -0.010 -0.15
Telekom 6,823,000 5.400 +0.030 +0.56
AMMB 6,745,800 6.430 +0.030 +0.47
Kbunai 6,568,700 0.105 -0.010 -8.70
Kassets 6,490,100 0.050 -0.005 -9.09
MISC 6,478,700 5.340 +0.030 +0.56
IJM 6,434,800 5.520 +0.100 +1.85
NICORP 6,427,100 0.140 unch unch
WCT 6,371,900 2.380 +0.050 +2.15
Itronic 6,311,800 0.590 -0.005 -0.84
Mulpha 6,159,400 0.400 unch unch
Astro 6,105,300 2.900 unch unch
HapSeng 5,953,800 1.730 +0.080 +4.85
Tiger 5,919,000 0.250 +0.005 +2.04
MRCB 5,890,700 1.490 +0.050 +3.47
YTLPowr 5,851,900 1.460 +0.010 +0.69
Dialog 5,732,500 2.350 -0.010 -0.42
RSawit 5,516,000 0.795 +0.025 +3.25
Censof 5,492,300 0.430 +0.005 +1.18
PetChem 5,073,100 6.390 +0.030 +0.47
TuneIns 5,031,900 1.380 -0.020 -1.43
Genting 4,584,600 9.990 +0.090 +0.91
KEuro 4,581,500 0.995 +0.010 +1.02
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2013年3月26日星期二
DOW SURGES TO NEW ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH, S&P FALLS JUST SHORT: Here's What You Need To Know
First the scoreboard:
Dow: 14,559, +111.9 pts, +0.7 percent
S&P 500: 1,563, +12.0 pts, +0.7 percent
NASDAQ: 3,252, +17.1 pts, +0.5 percent
And now the top stories:
- The Dow resumed its rally and closed at a new all-time record high. The S&P 500 ended just two points away from its all-time high of 1,565.15.
- The consumer confidence report was worrisome. The headline number plunged to 59.7 from 68.0 a month ago. Economists were looking for a reading of 67.5. "This month’s retreat was driven primarily by a sharp decline in expectations, although consumers were also more pessimistic in their assessment of current conditions," said Lynn Franco of the Conference Board. "The recent sequester has created uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and as a result, consumers are less confident."
- The February durable goods orders report reflected month-to-month volatility as expected. Total orders jumped 5.7 percent, which was much stronger than the 3.9 percent expected. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft and parts — aka core capex — however, declined 2.7 percent, versus expectations of a drop of only 1.1 percent. Core capex is a key indicator of business investment activity. "Smoothing through the monthly volatility in core capex orders, the trend is solidly upward," said UBS's Kevin Cummins. "In the first two months of Q1, core capex orders have increased at a 31.4% pace, up from the 20.4%q/q annualized rate in Q4."
- According to the S&P/Case-Shiller index, national home prices climbed by 1.02 percent month-over-month in January, which was stronger than the 0.8 percent increase expected by economists.
- In other housing news, new home sales fell by 4.6 percent in February. Economists were looking for a gain of 3.9 percent. Moreover, the median sales price of new homes was $246,800, up from $226,400 the previous month.
- The stock market got a new cheerleader today. Canaccord Genuity's Tony Dwyer cranked up his year end target on the S&P 500 to 1,760, making him the most bullish strategist on Wall Street.
10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell
- Markets in Asia were mostly lower in overnight trading. The Japanese Nikkei fell 0.6 percent while the Shanghai Composite dropped 1.3 percent. European markets are mostly gaining with the exception of Italy, down 0.4 percent, and Spain, down 0.1 percent. In the United States, futures point to a positive open.
- New Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the Japanese Diet in a semi-annual policy briefing that the central bank would consider expanding its asset purchase program to include government bonds of maturities of five years or longer. Kuroda could be priming markets for the outcome of the next BoJ policy meeting on April 3 and 4.
- Cypriot banks will remain closed through Thursday to allow policymakers more time to implement capital controls following last week's tense bank bailout negotiations with the EU. Uninsured deposits at the two largest banks will be subjected to haircuts, but the fear is that the events of the past week could still cause a run on the banks as confidence in the sanctity of deposits has been shattered.
- Ford CEO Alan Mulally told Bloomberg TV in an interview that he was concerned by Japan's efforts to devalue the yen in order to boost export competitiveness in the country's auto industry. "The most important thing that most countries around the world believe in is letting the markets determine the currency ... that’s just so important to all of us in the international trading system," said Mulally.
- The world's biggest emerging-market nations will unveil a plan to build an institution to counter the IMF and the World Bank at a conference today in South Africa. The new institution would act as a development bank, and the countries will also discuss pooling foreign exchange reserves to combat currency crises in emerging markets.
- February durable goods orders data are due out in the U.S. at 8:30 AM ET. Economists predict that orders expanded 3.9 percent in February after contracting 4.9 percent the month before. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft and parts (a.k.a. "core capex") is expected to have declined 1 percent after posting a 7.2 percent advance in January.
- Out at 9 AM are January Case-Shiller home price data. Economists predict the 20-city index rose 0.75 percent from the previous month and 7.85 percent year over year in January after rising 0.88 percent and 6.84 percent year over year in December.
- At 10 AM, the Conference Board releases March consumer confidence data. The headline index is expected to moderate slightly to 69.0 from last month's 69.3 reading.
- Also out at 10 are February new home sales data. Economists expect new home sales slowed in February to a 420,000 seasonally adjusted annualized rate from 437,000 in January.
- The Richmond Fed's monthly survey of regional manufacturing conditions is out at 10 AM as well. Economists expect the index to show a 6 reading in March, unchanged from February.
26 Mar 2013 Kuala Lumpur Closing Stock Prices
26 Mar 2013 Kuala Lumpur Most Actives
2013年3月25日星期一
REUTERS/Yorgos Karahalis
First the scoreboard:
Dow: 14,447.75, -64.28, -0.44%
S&P 500: 1,551.69, -5.20, -0.33%
NASDAQ: 3,235.30, -9.70, -0.30%
And now the top stories:
- Markets were rallying this morning after the EU and Cyprus agreed on a deal Sunday night to bailout the island nation's banking system. Under the new bailout agreement Cyprus' two largest banks will take haircuts, but insured depositors with less than €100,000 in their accounts won't be impacted. Under EU law, deposits of above €100,000 are not insured.
- .
- The Dallas Fed manufacturing survey for March jumped to 7.4, from 2.2 in February. This beat expectations for a reading of 3.2. The gains were led by the shipments sub-index.
- But stocks tumbled after Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem told Reuters and FT the Cyprus bailout deal could considered a template for bank restructurings elsewhere in the euro area. The S&P 500 which had been flirting with record highs again but it failed to close above its record high of 1565.15.
- Just hours later however the Eurogroup issued a statement backing down from Dijsselbloem's earlier statement. "Cyprus is a specific case with exceptional challenges which required the bail-in measures we have agreed upon yesterday. Macro-economic adjustment programmes are tailor-made to the situation of the country concerned and no models or templates are used."
- Economists are saying that despite last night's deal, Cyprus has effectively left the euro. This is because a euro in Cyprus would be worth less than a euro in Germany. Think tank Open Europe said: "Ultimately, money is no longer fungible between Cyprus and the rest of the Eurozone and, at this point in time, it’s hard to argue that a euro in Cyprus is worth the same as a euro elsewhere. The real problem though may not be imposing the controls but removing them – Iceland still has capital controls in place, five years after it installed them (despite having the advantage of a devalued currency)."
CHART OF THE DAY: 40 Years Of Long-Term US Dollar Cycles
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One of the hottest stories in the global financial markets is the comeback of the U.S. dollar.
In its latest "House View" presentation, Deutsche Bank includes this chart the shows how dollar cycles have historically lasted around six to 10 years.
"We expect the USD has now entered a sustained multi year uptrend," writes the analyst at Deutsche Bank.
Deutsche Bank
Shares Of Evraz Tanked After That Report About Roman Abramovich Being Arrested
Shares of Russian steelmaker Evraz, whose controlling shareholder is Roman Abramovich, slipped this morning on a Russian business news agency's report that the Russian billionaire was being detained by the FBI.
Shortly after 9 a.m. E.T. this morning, Russian news outlet RBC.com Tweeted that Abramovich had been detained in the U.S.
Via Google Translate the Tweet says, "Lightning! In the U.S., detained Roman Abramovich. Details soon."
BREAKING: Russian tycoon, Chelsea owner Roman #Abramovich detained in US - news agency @ru_rbc. Details to follow rt.com
A spokesperson for Abramovich John Mann Tweeted that the RBC story is "NOT TRUE."
The FBI declined to comment.
RBC's report appeared to move Evraz's stock though. Check out the chart from Yahoo! Finance. The stock, which is traded on the London Stock Exchange, tanked right after 1 p.m. GMT, which would be right after 9 a.m. ET when the report first surfaced.
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10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell
- Markets in Asia were mixed in overnight trading. The Japanese Nikkei advanced 1.7 percent, but the Shanghai Composite fell 0.1 percent. European markets are up across the board, with France currently leading the way, up 1.5 percent. In the United States, futures point to a positive open.
- The EU and Cyprus negotiated a deal at the last minute late Sunday night to bail out the tiny island nation's struggling banking system. The two largest Cypriot banks will undergo a restructuring in which uninsured depositors will take a hit, but those with less than 100,000 euros in their accounts will be spared from any sort of levy. This time around, the Cypriot parliament doesn't even have to approve the deal.
- The Austrian Press Agency quoted Austrian finance minister Maria Fekter as saying that Laiki, the second largest bank in Cyprus, would be wound down today as it no longer has any liquidity. Today is a bank holiday, but Fekter said banks could re-open as soon as Tuesday with liquidity support from the ECB.
- In a note published last night, Moody's analyst Sarah Collins argued that the damage that has been done to the Cypriot economy from the financial crisis of the past week means that even with a completed deal and a "best-case scenario," Cyprus still remains at risk of default. Collins said this also meant the country's membership in the euro area going forward would remain an open question.
- The stream of commentary from Wall Street on the Cyprus deal also struck a decidedly negative tone. Société Générale economist Michala Marcussen guarantees a recession, predicting a drop of 20 percent in real GDP in Cyprus over the next four years. UBS economist Paul Donovan declares "contagion risks are alive and well." And Citi currency strategist Steven Englander says it's still bad news for Europe and the euro.
- Carl Icahn and Blackstone are both looking to play spoiler in Michael Dell's bid to take Dell Inc. private. The two submitted separate preliminary bids late last week, and a special committee on the company's board is evaluating the proposals to see if either will be better than the $24.4 billion deal put together by Michael Dell and Silver Lake.
- Chinese electric car company BYD – partly owned by Warren Buffett – saw earnings drop 94 percent in 2012, citing a slowdown in economic growth in China. A subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway owns a 9.56 percent stake in the company.
- The Dallas Fed's monthly survey of regional manufacturing activity is due out at 10:30 AM ET. Economists expect the headline index to rise to 3.7 from last month's 2.2 reading, indicating an accelerating pace of growth in manufacturing output there.
- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at a conference at the London School of Economics this afternoon at 1:15 PM ET. The title of the event is "What should economists and policymakers learn from the financial crisis?" Speaking with Bernanke will be IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard, Harvard professor Larry Summers, former Bundesbank Chairman Axel Weber, and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King.
- Florida Gulf Coast University made history last night in its 81-71 win over San Diego State University, becoming the first 15-seed to ever reach the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA men's basketball playoff. FGCU knocked off 2-seed Georgetown in the first round on Friday.
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