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显示标签为“Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell”的博文。显示所有博文

2013年4月4日星期四



Lena Headey Queen Cersei
REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni
Good morning. Here's what you need to know.
  • Markets in Asia were mixed in overnight trading. The Japanese Nikkei jumped 2.2 percent, but the Shanghai Composite fell 0.1 percent. European markets are mostly higher, with Spain and Italy leading the way, both up 1.6 percent. In the United States, futures point to a positive open.

  • The yen has resumed its downward trajectory after the Bank of Japan gave markets a big positive surprise overnight at new Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's first meeting. The BoJ said it would double its holdings of government bonds and ETFs in order to reach its 2 percent inflation target within two years.

  • Euro zone services PMIs painted a bleak picture of the state of the services sector in March. The euro zone composite index fell to 46.5 from 47.9 in February, indicating an accelerating pace of contraction (any number below 50 on the index signals contraction mode). France's services PMI fell to 41.3, a 49-month low, and Germany, the outperformer in Europe, saw its services PMI fall sharply to 50.9 from 54.7 in February. Italy's services PMI actually rose to 45.5 from 43.6, but still indicates a moderate contraction.

  • The French government issued 10-year debt at a record low yield of 1.94 percent this morning. Despite the bleak economic data out of France in recent months, government bonds have staged a big rally since late February, sending yields plummeting.

  • The Bank of England elected to leave the benchmark interest rate on hold at 0.5 percent and the target size of the asset purchase program unchanged at £375 billion at its monthly policy meeting today. Not much more is expected of the central bank until incoming Governor Mark Carney takes over this summer, which is likely to usher in significant changes to BoE monetary policy.

  • The ECB will announce its monthly interest rate decision at 7:45 AM ET. The near unanimous consensus expectation is that the ECB will leave the benchmark refinancing rate unchanged at 0.75 percent and the deposit rate unchanged at 0 percent. ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference at 8:30. Observers will be listening for his thoughts on the crisis in Cyprus, a potential bailout of Slovenia in the future, and the recent deterioration in economic data around the euro zone.

  • Australia reported strong retail sales for the month of February, up 1.3 percent. Economists had predicted sales would rise only 0.3 percent after a 1.2 percent advance in January. Building approvals also surprised to the upside, rising 3.1 percent in February versus the 2.5 percent gain expected by economists.

  • Mt. Gox, the world's largest Bitcoin exchange, suffered an outage yesterday afternoon,sending the price of the virtual currency reeling after a major surge in recent days. The outage followed an attack on Bitcoin service Instawallet earlier in the day, highlighting one of the biggest problems with Bitcoin: confidence.

  • The Challenger Gray job cuts report for the month of March is out at 7:30 AM ET. In February, layoffs rose 7 percent year over year after dropping 24 percent year over year in January.

  • The big economic data release of the day in the United States is weekly jobless claims figures, due out at 8:30 AM ET. Economists predict initial claims fell to 353,000 in the week ended March 30, down from 357,000 new claims the week before. Continuing claims are expected to be unchanged at 3.05 million. 








2013年4月1日星期一

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell



Lindsay Lohan
AP
Good morning. Here's what you need to know.


  • Markets in Asia were mostly lower in overnight trading, with the Nikkei dropping 2.1 percent and the Shanghai Composite falling 0.1 percent. European markets are mostly higher with the exception of Italy, currently down 0.1 percent. In the United States, futures point to a flat open.

  • Japan's Tankan survey of business conditions for manufacturers rose to -8 in the first quarter from -12 in Q4 2012, but economists had expected an advance to -7. Similarly, the outlook for manufacturers rose to -1 from -10, but fell short of expectations of a +1 index reading. For the services sector, the current conditions index rose to 6 from 4, short of expectations of an 8 reading, while the outlook index rose to 9 from 3, missing expectations of an advance to 11.

  • China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 from 50.1 last month, short of expectations of a rebound to 51.2 on the index. HSBC's China manufacturing PMI rose to 51.6 from 50.4, matching expectations. 

  • South Korean exports, known as the "economic canary in the coalmine" because of their dependence on China and Japan, rose 0.4 percent in March, well short of the 1.4 percent gain expected by economists. However, South Korea PMI rose to 52.0 in March from 50.9 in February, indicating an accelerating pace of expansion in manufacturing activity.

  • Greece PMI tumbled to 42.1 in March from 43.0 in February, indicating an accelerating pace of an already-severe contraction in manufacturing activity there. Tomorrow, we get PMI data for the rest of the euro zone, and economists mostly expect lower or unchanged readings from last month.



  • Markit's final March reading of U.S. PMI is due out at 8:58 AM ET. Economists predict the index will edge up to 55.0 from the 54.9 flash estimate published by Markit earlier this month. In February, the index was at 54.3.

  • The U.S. ISM manufacturing index for the month of March is released at 10 AM ET. Economists expect the index to moderate to 54.0 from 54.2 last month, indicating a slowing yet robust pace of expansion in American manufacturing activity.

  • Also out at 10 AM ET are February construction spending data. Economists predict construction spending grew 1 percent after falling 2.1 percent in January.










2013年3月28日星期四

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell



amanda bynes
s_bukley / Shutterstock.com
Good morning. Here's what you need to know.
  • Markets in Asia were mostly lower in overnight trading. The Japanese Nikkei retreated 1.3 percent and the Shanghai Composite tumbled 2.8 percent as property stocks once again met renewed selling pressure. Markets in Europe are mostly higher this morning with the exception of Spain, which is currently down 0.5 percent. In the United States, futures point to a mixed open.

  • German retail sales rose 0.4 percent in February, above economists' estimates for a 0.6 percent decline, but less than the 3.0 percent gain posted in January. On a year-over-year basis, sales fell 2.2 percent, well below the 1.2 percent expansion predicted by economists and January's 2.5 percent year-over-year gain.

  • The ranks of the unemployed in Germany increased by 13,000 in March. Economists had predicted that the number of unemployed persons would fall by 2,000 after an unchanged number in February. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.9 percent.

  • Everyone expected bank runs in Cyprus today when banks opened their doors after a two-weeks long closure forced by contentious negotiations with the EU over how to bail out the banking system. The banks re-opened at 6 AM ET, though, and so far, there are no signs of a run on the banks. This is probably due to the restrictive capital controls enacted by Cyprus to counter a run – Cypriots are only allowed to withdraw a maximum of 300 euros per day for the next week. The haircut forced on uninsured depositors and a previous plan to levy a nationwide "tax" on all deposits has likely shattered confidence in the safety of Cypriot bank accounts.

  • The European Central Bank released February data for deposit levels in banks around the euro area today, a data point of particular interest in the wake of the bailout deal in Cyprus, which forced a haircut on uninsured depositors. The data revealed that deposits fell 2.2 percent in Cyprus in February, ahead of the crisis that began in mid-March. Meanwhile, in Greece, deposit levels actually rose 2 percent, and deposits at Italian banks – those thought to be most at risk of contagion from Cyprus – rose 1.3 percent. The release of the March data next month will show the impact of the Cyprus crisis on deposit levels in other euro area countries.


  • In the United States, the final estimate for fourth-quarter GDP is due out at 8:30 AM ET. Economists again expect the data to reveal a 0.5 percent expansion in U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter, though the second estimate, released at the end of February, only measured a 0.1 percent gain.

  • Weekly jobless claims figures are also released at 8:30. Economists predict 340,000 initial claims were filed in the week ended March 23, up slightly from the 336,000 new claims recorded in the previous week. Continuing claims are expected to have edged down to 3.041 million from 3.053 million the week before.

  • At 9:45, the Chicago PMI March survey, which gives a glimpse into regional manufacturing conditions, is released. Economists expect the headline index to tick down to 56.5 from 56.8 last month, indicating a moderate but robust pace of expansion in the region (any reading over 50 on the index indicates growth).

  • The final economic data release comes at 11:00 AM with the release of the Kansas City Fed's March manufacturing survey. Economists expect the index to rebound to -3 from last month's dismal -10 figure (any number below 0 on the index indicates contraction). Last month, the steep drop in manufacturing activity was blamed on the effects of federal spending cuts that formed the sequester.











2013年3月27日星期三

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell



Sofia Vergara
REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni
Good morning. Here's what you need to know.
  • Markets in Asia were higher in overnight trading, with both the Japanese Nikkei and Shanghai Composite both up 0.2 percent. European markets are in the red, with Spain leading the way lower, currently down 1.5 percent. Italy is also quite weak due to political chaos and the difficulty the country has in forming a government. In the United States, futures point to a negative open.

  • The final estimate for French fourth-quarter GDP came in at -0.3 percent, matching previous estimates as well as expectations. The French economy is dealing with a contracting manufacturing sector and rising unemployment at a time when the broader euro zone is feeling the pressures of a deepening recession.


  • Cypriot officials are moving forward with the wind-down of the country's two largest banks following a bailout deal made with the EU on Sunday night. Cypriot central bank chief Panicos Demetriades told reporters at a press conference that although they could not give specific numbers yet, 40 percent of uninsured deposits at Bank of Cyprus could be lost, and 80 percent of uninsured deposits at Laiki could be wiped out.

  • The Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee said Wednesday that U.K. banks needed to raise £25 billion of capital by the end of the year in order to bring capital ratios to at least 7 percent. Though the FPC is not allowed to name individual banks, analysts said RBS, in which the U.K. government has an 81 percent stake, is probably dealing with the biggest shortfall.

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia said that the country's largest banks have increased their exposure to Asia more than four-fold in the past five years as European banks have retreated from the region and Australia has stepped up trade relations with countries like China. Slowing loan demand at home has also pushed Australian banks toward more lending in the economies of their Asian trading partners.

  • Euro zone economic confidence fell to 90.0 in March from last month's 91.1 index reading, marking the first decline in sentiment since October. Economists had predicted a smaller tick down on the index to 90.5. The survey was largely completed before the crisis in Cyprus unfolded, which will likely weigh further on confidence going forward.

  • The European Commission is working on bringing an antitrust case against 16 global banks for alleged collusion in the credit derivatives market. Credit derivatives are largely traded "over the counter" on an ad-hoc basis between two parties, and authorities are trying to determine whether the banks acted in a way that stifled competition from exchanges.

  • February pending home sales data are due out in the U.S. at 10 AM ET. Economists predict that sales fell 0.3 percent from the month before after posting a 4.5 percent gain in January, but were still up 8.7 percent from February 2012. 

  • Four Federal Reserve presidents will give speeches today. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is up first at 11 AM ET, followed by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren at 11:30. At 12:15 PM, Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks, and Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota finishes things up with a speech at 1 PM.










2013年3月26日星期二

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell



Good morning. Here's what you need to know.
  • Markets in Asia were mostly lower in overnight trading. The Japanese Nikkei fell 0.6 percent while the Shanghai Composite dropped 1.3 percent. European markets are mostly gaining with the exception of Italy, down 0.4 percent, and Spain, down 0.1 percent. In the United States, futures point to a positive open.

  • New Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the Japanese Diet in a semi-annual policy briefing that the central bank would consider expanding its asset purchase program to include government bonds of maturities of five years or longer. Kuroda could be priming markets for the outcome of the next BoJ policy meeting on April 3 and 4.

  • Cypriot banks will remain closed through Thursday to allow policymakers more time to implement capital controls following last week's tense bank bailout negotiations with the EU. Uninsured deposits at the two largest banks will be subjected to haircuts, but the fear is that the events of the past week could still cause a run on the banks as confidence in the sanctity of deposits has been shattered.

  • Ford CEO Alan Mulally told Bloomberg TV in an interview that he was concerned by Japan's efforts to devalue the yen in order to boost export competitiveness in the country's auto industry. "The most important thing that most countries around the world believe in is letting the markets determine the currency ... that’s just so important to all of us in the international trading system," said Mulally.

  • The world's biggest emerging-market nations will unveil a plan to build an institution to counter the IMF and the World Bank at a conference today in South Africa. The new institution would act as a development bank, and the countries will also discuss pooling foreign exchange reserves to combat currency crises in emerging markets.

  • February durable goods orders data are due out in the U.S. at 8:30 AM ET. Economists predict that orders expanded 3.9 percent in February after contracting 4.9 percent the month before. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft and parts (a.k.a. "core capex") is expected to have declined 1 percent after posting a 7.2 percent advance in January.

  • Out at 9 AM are January Case-Shiller home price data. Economists predict the 20-city index rose 0.75 percent from the previous month and 7.85 percent year over year in January after rising 0.88 percent and 6.84 percent year over year in December.

  • At 10 AM, the Conference Board releases March consumer confidence data. The headline index is expected to moderate slightly to 69.0 from last month's 69.3 reading.

  • Also out at 10 are February new home sales data. Economists expect new home sales slowed in February to a 420,000 seasonally adjusted annualized rate from 437,000 in January.

  • The Richmond Fed's monthly survey of regional manufacturing conditions is out at 10 AM as well. Economists expect the index to show a 6 reading in March, unchanged from February.












2013年3月25日星期一

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell



Good morning. Here's what you need to know.
  • Markets in Asia were mixed in overnight trading. The Japanese Nikkei advanced 1.7 percent, but the Shanghai Composite fell 0.1 percent. European markets are up across the board, with France currently leading the way, up 1.5 percent. In the United States, futures point to a positive open.

  • The EU and Cyprus negotiated a deal at the last minute late Sunday night to bail out the tiny island nation's struggling banking system. The two largest Cypriot banks will undergo a restructuring in which uninsured depositors will take a hit, but those with less than 100,000 euros in their accounts will be spared from any sort of levy. This time around, the Cypriot parliament doesn't even have to approve the deal. 

  • The Austrian Press Agency quoted Austrian finance minister Maria Fekter as saying that Laiki, the second largest bank in Cyprus, would be wound down today as it no longer has any liquidity. Today is a bank holiday, but Fekter said banks could re-open as soon as Tuesday with liquidity support from the ECB.

  • In a note published last night, Moody's analyst Sarah Collins argued that the damage that has been done to the Cypriot economy from the financial crisis of the past week means that even with a completed deal and a "best-case scenario," Cyprus still remains at risk of default. Collins said this also meant the country's membership in the euro area going forward would remain an open question.

  • The stream of commentary from Wall Street on the Cyprus deal also struck a decidedly negative tone. Société Générale economist Michala Marcussen guarantees a recession, predicting a drop of 20 percent in real GDP in Cyprus over the next four years. UBS economist Paul Donovan declares "contagion risks are alive and well." And Citi currency strategist Steven Englander says it's still bad news for Europe and the euro.

  • Carl Icahn and Blackstone are both looking to play spoiler in Michael Dell's bid to take Dell Inc. private. The two submitted separate preliminary bids late last week, and a special committee on the company's board is evaluating the proposals to see if either will be better than the $24.4 billion deal put together by Michael Dell and Silver Lake.

  • Chinese electric car company BYD – partly owned by Warren Buffett – saw earnings drop 94 percent in 2012, citing a slowdown in economic growth in China. A subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway owns a 9.56 percent stake in the company.

  • The Dallas Fed's monthly survey of regional manufacturing activity is due out at 10:30 AM ET. Economists expect the headline index to rise to 3.7 from last month's 2.2 reading, indicating an accelerating pace of growth in manufacturing output there. 

  • Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at a conference at the London School of Economics this afternoon at 1:15 PM ET. The title of the event is "What should economists and policymakers learn from the financial crisis?" Speaking with Bernanke will be IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard, Harvard professor Larry Summers, former Bundesbank Chairman Axel Weber, and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King.

  • Florida Gulf Coast University made history last night in its 81-71 win over San Diego State University, becoming the first 15-seed to ever reach the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA men's basketball playoff. FGCU knocked off 2-seed Georgetown in the first round on Friday.










2013年3月22日星期五



Good morning. Here's what you need to know.
  • Asian markets were mostly lower in overnight trading with the Nikkei down 2.35 percent, posting its biggest weekly loss since November. Europe is lower and U.S. futures are modestly higher.

  • Cyprus failed to secure aid from Russia and has now been left to arrive at a deal with the EU by March 25. Meanwhile, Luke Baker at Reuters reports that Angela Merkel has said Cyprus "must realize its current business model is dead." And a government spokesman has said that the island nation's talks with the troika - the EU, IMF and ECB - are in the final stage and the next few hours will be crucial. 


  • Nike reported adjusted earnings of $0.73 per share, on revenue of $6.19 billion. Analysts were looking for earnings of $0.67 per share, on revenue of $6.23 billion. This sent the stock up over 8 percent in after-hours trading.

  • BP is repurchasing $8 billion of shares. The company plans to return the amount that was invested in TNK-BP to shareholders. BP's announcement comes after its October agreement to sell its 50 percent stake in the venture to Rosneft. 



  • A marine opened fire at a base in Quantico, Virginia killing two people. The second victim was a female marine, but no other details about the victims have been disclosed. The alleged shooter is reported to have killed himself.





2013年3月21日星期四

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell



Good morning. Here's what you need to know.

  • The European Central Bank has said it will provide  Cyprus with Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) only until March 25. If Cyprus does not have a deal by then, the ECB will pull the plug on the ELA. This comes after the Cypriot parliament rejected a deal that involved a tax on deposits. 


  • Euro-area composite PMI which measures services and manufacturing output fell to 46.5 in March, from 47.9 in February, according to Markit Economics. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. German Flash manufacturing PMI fell to 48.9, and French Flash manufacturing PMI held steady at 43.9.

  • China HSBC Flash PMI climbed to 51.7 in March, from 50.4 in February. This beat expectations for 50.8. 

  • Initial jobless claims is out at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by Flash PMI for March at 8:58 a.m. ET. Consensus is for initial claims to rise to 340,000 and for the PMI index to ease to 55. 

  • Oracle missed expectations when it reported Q3 earnings of $0.65 per share ex-items, on revenue of $8.97 billion. Analysts were looking for earnings of $0.66 per share, on revenue of $9.37 billion. The stock is down over 8 percent in pre-market trading. 

  • Japanese exports fell 2.9 percent year-over-year (YoY) in February, missing expectations for a 0.9 percent rise. Imports were up 11.9 percent on the year.

  • The FHFA house price index for January is out at 9 a.m. ET, followed by existing home sales for February and the Philadelphia Fed Survey for March at 10 a.m. ET. Consensus is for home prices to rise 0.7 percent month-over-month (MoM) and for existing home sales to rise to an annual rate of 5.01 million. Meanwhile, the business conditions index is expected to rise to -1.5, from -12.5.



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2013年3月20日星期三

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell



Good morning. Here's what you need to know.
  • Asian markets were mixed in overnight trading with the Shanghai Composite up 2.66 percent, rising the most in two monthsEurope is rallying and U.S. future are higher. 


  • The FOMC meeting announcement and forecasts are out at 2 p.m. ET, after the Fed revised it release time. This will be follow by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. The asset purchase program and interest rates are expected to remain unchanged but analysts are watching the language for clues on QE. 

  • UK chancellor George Osborne is presenting the 2013 Budget to parliament at 12:30 GMT (8:30 a.m. ET). He is expected to stick to his plan for austerity, and analysts expect the focus of this Budget to be on monetary, not fiscal policy. 


  • J.P. Morgan was downgraded in a secret scorecard from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency over concerns about the company’s leadership, according to the Wall Street Journal. On a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 being the worst, JP Morgan is now at 3.















2013年3月19日星期二

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell



Good morning. Here's what you need to know.

  • After the initial furore over the taxes on depositors in Cypriot banks, a 'Plan B' has emerged. Under this plan, there would be no tax on deposits under €20,000, a 6.75 percent tax on deposits between €20,000 -  €100,000 and 9.9 percent on deposits above €100,000.  Meanwhile, a government spokesman told Reuters the parliament would reject the plan. 


  • Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) was up 6.3 percent year-over-year to $8.21 billion in February. This is the first increase in nine months. For the January-February period, FDI fell 1.35 percent. Meanwhile, overseas direct investment (ODI) by Chinese companies, ex-financial sector, were up 147.3 percent. 

  • Housing starts for February are out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists polled by Bloomberg are looking for housing starts to rise 2.8 percent month-over-month (MoM) to an annual rate of 915,000, and for building permits to rise 2.3 percent MoM on the month, to an annual ate of 925,000. 





  • The FOMC meeting begins today. Bank of America's Michael Hanson expects interest rates, forward guidance, and the $85 billion a month pace of asset purchases to stay unchanged.












2013年3月15日星期五

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell



Good morning. Here's what you need to know.
  • Asian markets were mixed in overnight trading with the Nikkei up 1.45 percent to a 4.5 year high, after the parliament approved a new management team for the Bank of Japan. Europe is selling off and U.S. futures are flat.

  • The upper house of the Japanese parliament approved three doves to head the Bank of Japan. Haruhiko Kuroda, who had previously received the approval of the lower house, has been appointed the new Bank of Japan governor as expected. Meanwhile, Kikuo Iwata and Hiroshi Nakaso have also been named in the Bank of Japan's management team. 

  • Consumer prices for February and the Empire State manufacturing survey for March are out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus is for CPI to rise 0.5 percent month-over-month (MoM), and for the general business conditions index level to decline to 10. 

  • Samsung revealed its Galaxy S4 at Radio City Music Hall yesterday. The phone has a 5-inch full HD display and operates on the latest version of of Android called Jelly Bean. The phone is thinner and lighter than the previous model.




  • Industrial production for February is out at 9:15 a.m. ET, followed by consumer sentiment for March at 9:55 a.m. ET. Consensus is for industrial production to rise 0.5 percent MoM and for the consumer sentiment to stay flat.