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The China Development Bank initiative
China now plans to offer renminbi
loans to other BRICS nations Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa, the
Financial Times reported. The China Development Bank (CDBs) will reportedly sign
a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in New Delhi with its BRICS counterparts on
March 29. The five dominant emerging economies are signing the initiative in an
effort to boost trade and promote the use of the renminbi for international
trade over the dollar.
China first made the yuan
convertible for trade settlement back in 1996. As of now 13 percent of China's
trade in Asia is conducted in renminbi, but the renminbi's share of regional
trade is slated to rise to 50 percent by 2015, according to HSBC. The renminbi's
greater role in financing trade could also be a huge advantage for China since
it forces other countries to take on the risk of adverse currency moves.
Earlier this year Deutsche Bank
analyst Alan Cloete said the renminbi is expected to become a major
reserve currency in the next decade. He expects the U.S. dollar's share of
the global reserve currency basked to fall from about 60 percent now, to 50
percent by 2020.
Second, China has expressed its interest in adding the renminbi to the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) currency basket, as a reserve currency. CDBs initiative if it goes through will only speed up the process.
At The Rise of the Renminbi
conference, Hongbin
Qu, HSBC's managing director said:
"The pace of the renminbi internationalization has
been much faster than almost everybody expected in the last few years. We're
expecting this trend to continue. In the next two to three years we expect the
renminbi to become one of the top three global currencies being used in global
trade."
For the renminbi to become fully
convertible however, it would have to appreciate to fair market value and the
government would have to cede some control of its financial markets. But it's
unclear how likely this is. After all, PBOC
governor Zhou recently said that currency convertibility doesn't mean
surrendering control of cross-border financial
transactions

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