Bruce Krasting

Email | URL
Bruce Krasting is a former hedge fund manager

A very big question mark hanging over the global table is what the hell is going to happen between Iran and Israel. I spoke with a fellow in Europe I know who has an informed opinion. There were no secrets discussed, but his thoughts on some of the variables including Syria, bunker bombs and timing were interesting.

Will Israel allow Iran to develop a nuke?
Not a chance in hell.

What is the “over - under on timing”?
Certainly less than two years.

Does Israel have the capacity to take out concrete hardened facilities in Iran?
Yes, but this is by no means an easy task.

Explain?
chart

It is not possible for the Israel Air force to attack without going over some other country’s border. The choices are Turkey (Iraq then Iran), Jordan (Saudi Arabia, Iraq then Iran), Syria (Iraq then Iran) or Saudi Arabia (Direct to Iran).


Which route will Israel choose?
It will go over Syria. There would be hell to pay if Israel went over Turkey or Jordan. If the Saudis “permitted” it, the Iranians would retaliate by assassinating Saudis all over the world. So it will be Syria. This is especially true as the country is in chaos today.

Will Syria attempt to shoot down Israeli aircraft flying over its territory?
Yes, it has surface-to-air capability and it also has MiG-23 and MiG-27 fighters. The Israelis will escort their bombers over Syria with their F16s. These fighters will wipe out anything that Syria puts up. The ground-based defenses are old, and no doubt poorly manned these days.

Is it a problem if Israeli attack bombers fly over Iraqi territory?
No one gives a shit about Iraq anymore.

What happens when the Israeli bombers get over Iranian air space?
This question has no answer. If it happens, this would be the most advertised air attack in history. The Iranians have sophisticated radar and surface to air capability they bought from China. It would be a mistake to assume that an attack can be made without losses.

How would the attack take place?
Israel will use its F15s. Each plane will be armed with a single laser-guided bunker buster bomb. It will use their F16s as escorts.
As of today, Israel “officially” has only thirty of these bunker bombs. It has a total of 100 F15 attack bombers, so it needs more bombs to fully utilize their strike capability. Look for a sign on this. If the U.S. agrees to supply more bombs, the timing is close.

What is your guess on the outcome?
It is not possible to predict what will happen in Syria. The chaos today creates the best opportunity for Israel. Who knows what can happen in six months? Every week Iran's defenses get stronger.  This will be resolved, one way or the other, in less than six months.