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ThaiBev (Y92.SG) and TCC
Assets now look like winners, Religare says in a note after the two said they
would be voting in favor of Heineken's (HEIA.AE) bid for F&N's (F99.SG)
holdings in APB (A46.SG).
It estimates after the APB deal, ThaiBev could make
around S$2 billion net-net, a "whopping" 46% cash return on its investments,
helping its balance sheet.
TCC now needs to come up with around S$8.8 billion to
take over F&N and will receive around S$5.4 billion from the APB sale, it
says. "We won't be surprised if several months later ThaiBev and Heineken come
up with another distribution agreement for ThaiBev products," it adds.
The
"worst-case" scenario for the Thai group is to remain majority F&N
stakeholders without being able to delist F&N, if the Singapore company's
board rejects its bid. ThaiBev holding 29.99%, TCC about 1% and Kirin owning 14%
is "still a messy structure, but ThaiBev and TCC could get control of F&N
with ThaiBev focusing on FNH (3689.KU) and TCC on property without having to
bring S$8.8 billion." ThaiBev is up 18.8% at S$0.41.
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