STOCKS FALL, BUT HAVE BEST JANUARY IN YEARS: Here's What You Need To Know

Sam Ro

 Jan. 31, 2013

Library of Congress

It's jobs week in America. So, let's talk about jobs.

First the scoreboard:

Dow: 13,860, -49.8, -0.3 percent

S&P 500: 1,498, -3.8, -0.2 percent

NASDAQ: 3,142, -0.1, -0.0 percent

And now the top stories:

• Initial jobless claims surged to 368k, from 330k a week ago.  Economists were looking for a jump, but only to 350k.

• The rebound in jobless claims was largely due to some widely-anticipated seasonal factors that may have prevented some states from reporting all of their claims in the prior week's report.  Because noise was expected in the numbers, the markets basically brushed off the seemingly disappointing report.

• The Chicago PMI report surged to 55.6, crushing expectations for a reading of 50.5.  This was largely due to the employment sub-index, which jumped to 58.0 from 46.8 a month ago.  This was the largest gain since February 2002.

• In a note to clients, Miller Tabak Chief Economic Strategist Andrew Wilkinson wrote that the Chicago PMI report might be sending a bullish signal about tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report.  Indeed, of the last five times the Chicago PMI employment sub-index jumped by such a wide margin, the nonfarm payrolls number came in ahead of expectations four times.

• January ended with a solid 5 percent gain in the S&P 500.  According to Zerohedge, this was the best January since 1989.  "As goes January, so goes the year," or so the saying goes.

• Deutsche Bank's David Bianco believes that the 'January Effect' will play out this year again.  In a new note, he writes about four recent experiences when stocks fell, despite a strong gain.  In 2001, they fell after the 9/11 attacks.  In 2011, the markets ended flat for the year.  In 1966 and 1994, stocks fell "owing mostly to Fed tightening."

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

Matthew Boesler

\ Jan. 31, 2013

Jason Merritt/Getty Images

Good morning. Here's what you need to know.

• Asian markets were mixed in overnight trading. The Japanese Nikkei gained 0.2 percent and the Shanghai Composite was up 0.1 percent, but the Hang Seng fell. In Europe, markets are taking losses – Spain is down 1.9 percent while Italy and France are both down 1 percent. In the United States, futures point to a negative open.

• Japanese industrial production rose 2.5 percent from the previous month in December, missing expectations of a larger 4.1 percent advance after a 1.4 percent contraction last month. A drop in production of electronic parts and devices was the main culprit.

• German unemployment unexpectedly fell to 6.8 percent in December. Economists expected it to remain unchanged at 6.9 percent. However, Frank-Juergen Weise, President of the Federal Labor Agency, warned, “There’s a chance the cold weather in the second half of January may bring an increase in unemployment in February.”

• German retail sales plunged 1.7 percent in December from the previous month. Economists were expecting a smaller loss of 0.1 percent after sales expanded 0.6 percent in November. Year-over-year, December retail sales were down 4.7 percent – well below the 1.5 percent decline predicted by economists and last month's -0.6 percent figure. Deutsche Bank economists think the numbers will be revised higher >

• Deutsche Bank posted a larger than expected fourth-quarter loss of 2.17 billion euros, the biggest in four years, after the bank laid off 1,400 employees and set aside 1 billion euros for legal expenses. The investment bank took a pretax loss of 548 million euros versus expectations of a profit of 359 million euros. However, the bank did exceed estimates on its capital adequacy goal, and shares rose.

• Spanish bank Santander, the biggest bank in the eurozone by market value, reported a stunning $26 billion dollar writedown in its earnings release today. The charge included 12.7 billion euros in provisions for non-performing loans in Spain and another 6.1 billion euros for Spanish real estate exposure, amounting to 18.8 billion euros ($26 billion) in total.

• The U.K.'s four largest banks – Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, and RBS – face a payout to thousands of small businesses after selling them interest rate swaps in deals that did not comply with regulatory requirements. According to the WSJ, "Analysts estimate that the four banks sold 28,000 hedging products to businesses since 2001 and the eventual payouts could reach hundreds of millions of pounds."

• Facebook earnings and revenues came in above Wall Street's estimates, but the stock fell sharply in after-hours trading anyway. The company reported 40 percent revenue growth year-over-year and improved operating margins.

• Weekly jobless claims figures are due out in the United States at 8:30 AM ET. Economists expect 351,000 new claims this week after the two most recent readings may have been skewed lower by administrative factors.
• Also out at 8:30 AM are personal income and spending numbers for the month of December. Income growth is expected to accelerate to 0.8 percent while spending growth is expected to moderate slightly to 0.3 percent. The numbers follow yesterday's GDP report, which showed a rise in personal consumption despite an overall contraction.

The Senkaku Islands Dispute Is Forcing Japan To Rethink How It Trades With The World

Allison Jackson, The Financialist

 Jan. 31, 2013

Wikimedia Commons

• Island Dispute Disrupts Sino-Japanese Trade
• Bank of Japan Bulletin
• Christine Lagarde: “2013 Will Be Make or Break”

The escalating dispute between China and Japan over an archipelago of rocky islets known as Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan has curbed Japanese exports into China, forcing Tokyo to fast-track moves to distance itself economically from its larger neighbor.

In a recent report, the World Bank said the Japanese economy appeared to be contracting “in part because of political tension with China over the sovereignty of islands in the region.”

But while these sovereign disputes hurt the bottom lines of Japan’s export-driven companies and push some to hedge their China exposure by increasing sales to other Asian economies, the size of the bilateral trade should secure the flow of Japanese investments into China over the long term.

In the short term, however, there is pain. Trade between Asia’s two largest economies fell 3.9 percent last year to $329.45 billion, the first drop in three years, as Japan slipped from being China’s fourth-largest trade partner to its fifth largest.

The deteriorating trade relations come as Japan gets ready to implement both fiscal and monetary stimulus measures to revive its struggling economy.

Japanese automakers are among those hardest hit by the souring relations. Nissan saw sales in China, the world’s biggest auto market, fall 5.3 percent to 1.18 million units; Toyota reported a 4.9 percent drop to 840,000 units; and Honda posted a 3.1 percent decline to 598,576 units.

The tensions appear to have hurt China as well. Foreign direct investment in China fell for the first time in three years in 2012. Most of the FDI into China comes from 10 Asian countries and economies, including Japan, and this fell 4.8 percent last year to $95.74 billion, official figures show.

“Over the long term, the shockwave that the dispute has sent across the Japanese business community will expedite a move to hedge the risk,” said Michal Meidan, a London-based analyst for global political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

But, she went on, “I think Japanese investments in China are going to continue, probably going to pick up slightly, because that still is a major market for the Japanese.”

Jonathan Holslag, a research fellow at the Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies, agrees.

“The recent turmoil has added impetus to an agenda that already existed for diversifying commercial relationships,” Holslag told The Financialist.

On Jan. 16, Shinzo Abe embarked on his first overseas trip since being elected prime minister for the second time in December. Rather than make China his first stop, as he did in 2007 during his last premiership, he headed to Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia instead.

“The growing dependence of Japan on China…is not a very desirable evolution so there is a lot of thinking going on to try to diversify away from China, to conclude commercial partnerships with the countries of Southeast Asia and with India and some places as far as the Middle East and Africa,” Holslag said.

While Abe hoped the trip would result in stronger relations with Southeast Asia’s other major economies, it does not mean Japan is turning its back on China — far from it.

Nevertheless, the dispute over the islands will continue to cause political and economic headaches for China and Japan, with neither acting to defuse the tensions.

Abe warned recently that there was “no room for negotiations” with China over the islands.

“My resolve to defend our waters and territories has not changed at all,” the hawkish Abe said, according to The Daily Yomiuri, shortly after announcing the first increase in Japanese defense spending in more than a decade.

The Chinese also have taken a hard line.

Last week, an editorial in the state-controlled Global Times warned its readers to “prepare for the worst” and said the Chinese military “shouldn’t be hesitant to take military revenge” in response to Japanese provocations.

A mixture of historical animosity, self-serving politics and energy security is fueling the dispute. As the US increases its strategic engagement in the Asia-Pacific region, China is eager to use the spat with Japan as an opportunity to show off its strength and boost its influence in the region.

But energy and the control of potentially large hydrocarbon reserves are at the core of the dispute which ensures lasting tensions between Asia’s economic giants.

“They will give you a long, historical explanation of their sovereignty claim. But the idea that there are vast resources under the East China Sea just off their coast is a tremendous motivation for the intensity of their territorial dispute,” Sheila Smith, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C, told National Geographic late last year.

While Sino-Japanese relations are likely to remain tense, the strong economic interests linking the two countries — and, in particular, Japan’s large investment in China — should ensure neither side overplays its hand.

It won’t be an “either-or issue,” Tony Nash, managing director at IHS Consulting in Asia, told Bloomberg earlier this month.

“Firms will stay in China, and they will invest in Southeast Asia and other places. It’s hard for Japanese exports to move totally away from China and it’s hard for Chinese OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) to move totally away from Japanese components,” said Nash.

BlackRock Now Owns A Piece Of Manchester United

Keith Weir, Reuters

 Jan. 31, 2013

LONDON (Reuters) - Asset manager BlackRock <BLK.N> has built a stake of more than 8 percent in the listed shares of British soccer club Manchester United <MANU.N>.

The U.S. company owns 8.21 percent of the English Premier League club's Class A shares, listed on the New York Stock Exchange last year, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing. The asset manager has also invested in the Formula One motor racing business.

United are seven points clear at the top of the Premier League and have had a good start to the year commercially, signing up a series of sponsorship deals. A report this week by Forbes said that United's recent share price rise has made it the first professional sports team with a value of more than $3 billion.

The club is owned by the American Glazer family. The share listing last August used a dual structure of Class A and B shares, which left the Glazers firmly in control of the club.

The shares languished below the initial $14 price for much of last year but have surged in recent weeks to a peak of $17.75. They closed at $16.78 on Wednesday.

English soccer clubs will benefit over the next three years from enhanced television deals, while spending should be curbed by European rules punishing clubs that run up big losses.

31 Jan 2013 Kuala Lumpur Closing Stock Prices

Close Prior Change % Change AMMB 6.36 6.35 +0.01 +0.16 BAT 57.40 57.44 -0.04 -0.07 Genting 9.50 9.35 +0.15 +1.60 GenM 3.67 3.67 unch unch IGB 2.34 2.34 unch unch L&G 0.39 0.39 unch unch MayBank 8.88 8.90 -0.02 -0.22 MAS 0.69 0.70 -0.01 -0.72 PetGas 18.56 18.72 -0.16 -0.85 PbBank 15.52 15.52 unch unch RHBCap 7.74 7.74 unch unch Sime 9.30 9.29 +0.01 +0.11 Telekom 5.55 5.56 -0.01 -0.18 Tenaga 7.00 7.00 unch unch TopGlove 5.23 5.25 -0.02 -0.38 UMW 12.14 12.14 unch unch YTL 1.65 1.69 -0.04 -2.37

31 Jan 2013 Kuala Lumpur Most Actives

Volume Close Change % Change Patimas130,951,800 0.120 +0.005 +4.35 CAP 81,519,600 0.730 -0.050 -6.41 GPRO 36,523,900 0.095 +0.010 +11.76 TMS 28,221,600 0.075 -0.005 -6.25 SKPetro 20,214,300 2.920 +0.060 +2.10 Tiger 19,280,300 0.320 unch unch Axiata 16,332,900 6.300 +0.010 +0.16 DiGi 16,281,400 4.920 -0.010 -0.20 YTL 16,025,500 1.650 -0.040 -2.37 IRCB 15,536,500 0.165 +0.015 +10.00 Scomi 15,105,100 0.350 unch unch Maxis 13,959,300 6.370 unch unch Tenaga 13,422,300 7.000 unch unch D.B.E. 13,264,800 0.075 unch unch CIMB 12,979,900 7.210 -0.010 -0.14 MayBank 12,300,400 8.880 -0.020 -0.22 Telekom 12,270,200 5.550 -0.010 -0.18 PasuKGB 12,153,200 0.265 +0.020 +8.16 KAssets 12,139,700 0.065 +0.005 +8.33 Itronics11,250,900 0.580 -0.015 -2.52 SKPRes 11,035,600 0.345 +0.010 +2.99 Gamuda 9,972,800 3.720 +0.040 +1.09 IHH 9,194,500 3.290 +0.040 +1.23 Sime 9,061,000 9.300 +0.010 +0.11 Takaso 8,288,400 0.205 -0.010 -4.65 AirAsia 7,930,100 2.780 +0.020 +0.72 GenM 7,548,300 3.670 unch unch Mtronic 7,164,900 0.100 unch unch UEMLand 7,075,700 2.200 +0.040 +1.85 Astro 6,973,500 2.790 -0.010 -0.36 Tebrau 6,880,500 0.930 -0.010 -1.06 BJToto 6,352,900 4.350 -0.040 -0.91 FGV 6,220,300 4.580 -0.010 -0.22 AMMB 5,700,800 6.360 +0.010 +0.16 BJCorp 5,518,000 0.535 -0.010 -1.83 SPSetia 5,498,400 3.130 -0.020 -0.63 Ewein 5,419,500 0.710 -0.130 -15.48 E&O 5,324,900 1.530 -0.010 -0.65 IOI 5,305,400 4.970 unch unch PbBank 5,282,900 15.520 unch unch Perisai 4,887,400 1.030 unch unch KBB 4,595,200 0.510 unch unch Hua-An 4,461,600 0.150 unch unch YTLPowr 4,407,900 1.520 -0.010 -0.65 Genting 4,346,300 9.500 +0.150 +1.60 MRCB 4,188,700 1.390 -0.020 -1.42 Flonic 4,175,000 0.080 +0.005 +6.67 KNM 3,949,100 0.480 unch unch LionCorp 3,913,000 0.325 +0.010 +3.17 AsiaBio 3,836,300 0.070 unch unch

The Chinese Stock Market Is Closing In On Its 'Golden Cross'

Sam Ro

 Jan. 30, 2013

After a rocky 2012, the Shanghai Composite (China's main stock market index) has been making a big move up.

In fact, it's moving up so quickly that the 50-day moving average is about to be higher than the 200-day moving average, a phenomenon referred to by technical analysts as the "golden cross."

This is a bullish sign for traders who believe in momentum in the markets.

The folks at Bespoke Investment Group wrote about this earlier today.  Here's their chart:

Bespoke Investment Group

STOCKS FALL AFTER GDP DISAPPOINTS: Here's What You Need To Know

Sam Ro

 Jan. 30, 2013

Wikimedia Commons

Markets sold off a bit today.

First the scoreboard:

Dow: 13,910, -44.0, -0.3 percent

S&P 500: 1,501, -5.8, -0.3 percent

NASDAQ: 3,142, -11.3, -0.3 percent

And now the top stories:

• This morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis published its first reading of Q4 2012 GDP.  And it was a stunner.  According to their measure, GDP unexpectedly fell by 0.1 percent.  Economists were looking for a 1.1 percent growth rate.

• Government spending was the main driver of contraction, subtracting 1.3 percentage points from Q4 GDP growth and falling 6.6 percent. Federal spending fell 15.0 percent, led by a 22.2 percent drop in defense spending.   

• Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer noted that today's GDP report was "grossly distorted" by government spending and inventories.  "Outside of these two very volatile components, underlying growth improved with a solid gain in business investment," she wrote. "We believe today’s report suggests upside risk to our forecast of 1.0% for Q1 GDP."

• Personal consumption, which is arguably the most important component of GDP, grew at a 2.2 percent rate, which was slightly stronger than consensus estimates of 2.1 percent.  This was was driven largely by a 13.9 percent advance in the consumption of durable goods.

• The Federal Reserve concluded its first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the year.  And they had very little to say that was new.  There was no change in their benchmark rate and they said they would continue its purchases of Treasury and mortgage-backed (i.e. quantitative easing).

• "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that growth in economic activity paused in recent months, in large part because of weather-related disruptions and other transitory factors," they said.  That probably explains why Q4 GDP came up short.

• Facebook announces its quarterly earnings after the closing bell.

像巴菲特那样投资

崇

尚价值投资的本杰明•格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)曾写过这样一句话：最务实的投资最为明智。正如这位了不起的价值投资者所表达过的其他许多观点一样，这句话看似简单，却蕴含着极其深远的意义。

我们来试着解读一下他这句话的含义吧。假设有一位你无意中结识的某公司首席执行长给你打来一通电话，提出要以看起来很低的价格卖给你他们那家上市公司的股票。你会对他说些什么？

相关报道

巴菲特50年投资之道
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打败巴菲特的10个方法

一个很自然的反应可能是：你为什么要卖掉它们？为什么会给我这么便宜的价格？

接下来的问题可能包括：这家公司是做什么的？它的产品包括哪些？公司是如何赢利的？消费者为什么会选择这家公司、而不是其竞争对手的产品？它的竞争对手有哪些？这些公司的表现如何？为什么没有更多的竞争对手？

如果这家公司的产品销往海外，你或许还想知道该公司参与市场竞争的那些国家的状况。如果在那些国家有坏事发生，对这家公司会怎样？还有，这家公司对其供应商的依赖程度有多高？如果消费者喜好发生变化，这家公司会怎么做？这家公司的管理层是否值得信赖？

如果你对上述问题的答案都很满意，那么你就可以问一些数字了。比如说：这家公司每年的现金利润平均是多少？业绩好的年份能达到多少？不好的年份呢？存在这样的差距是什么原因？

然后你会想要知道这家公司在不同的经济环境下会有怎样的表现。如果经济出现滞涨，这家公司能保持住产品定价不受影响吗？定价会否随通货膨胀而上升？

之后，你会去了解股票买价是否合理。你需要持有多长时间这家公司的股票，方能收回最初的投资？如果这家公司破产了，你能够得到些什么，能拿回多少钱？如果这家公司业务继续扩张，那么需要进行多少再投资，投资该公司的回报率是多少？这样的投资回报率是否高于其他投资途径？

没有问到的问题

人们最关心的是那些没有被问出口的问题，包括：

这家公司现在股价是多少？去年该股价位如何？股价下个月能达到多少──这只股票是否已经大涨过了？

这只股票的价格走势图是否呈现看跌钻石(bearish diamond)形态，股价是否跌穿了“支撑位”？下个季度的每股收益将会是多少，这与市场普遍预期相比，是高还是低？与其竞争对手或是大盘相比，这只股票的市盈率、或是市盈率与增长率之比是高还是低？

这只股票每日的成交情况如何？有多少分析师将该股的评级定为“买进”，有多少人的评级是“持有”，有多少人是“卖出”？这只股票的贝塔(beta)系数是多少？这只股票会不会在其他股票突然由涨转跌或是由跌变涨时，出现反向的逆转走势？

你不应该问这些问题，因为你正在按照生意人的方式进行思考。现在摆在你面前的问题是，这家公司是否值得以向你开出的这个价格买入。如果不值得，那么你应该礼貌地向这位首席执行长表示感谢，然后留住你的现金别动。这家公司对你来说还不够便宜，事情就这么简单。

这些问题展示的是对于价值投资者而言很重要的一套规则。你必须遵守投资准则，不断提醒自己，不要忘记那些能够巩固你的事业的关键原则：

1. 当其他人胆小畏缩时，不妨贪婪些

沃伦•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)在1994年给伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)股东的信中写道：

“我们还会继续对政治和经济预期视而不见，这些东西对许多投资者和企业家而言，只会让他们分心，而且这样的分心代价巨大。”

“实际上，”巴菲特指出，“我们往往是在人们对于某些宏观事件的担心情绪达到顶点的时候，做出了我们最划算的买入交易。恐惧是跟风者的敌人，但却是尊崇基本面投资之人的朋友。”

鉴于人们往往倾向于以分析性的术语来表达情感上的反应，上面这段话的最后一句尤为重要。

比方说，“我想等到这只股票价格走低的时候”可能只不过是要说“我不敢入场买进”。“股票风险溢价有所上升”或许只是表示“人们变得更害怕了”。“股票每单位波动率的预期回报有所上升”或许可以解释为“人们对于股市的看跌情绪变得更严重了”。

依据这些“分析工具”（诸如折现率、投资组合权重等等）来进行投资，简直就是本末倒置──除非你把这些分析结果当作反向指标来用。

2. 当其他人都很贪婪时，你要小心了

在世界各国的利率都处于历史低点的时候，要坚持遵守价格准则并不是一件容易之事。

借用德州扑克的术语来说，那些出牌手比较“松”（比较愿意进场买进）的投资策略在今天这样的投资环境中更有可能获得较高的以市价计算的短期回报，因为各国央行在持续不断地印钞票，这意味着对所有投资者而言，“盲注”的筹码不断被提高，迫使投资者投下更大的“赌注”。

无论如何，那些坚守其价格准则的价值型投资者更有可能在较长时期内实现更好的结果。这是因为，“出手松”的投资策略本身就包含着一个“卖出巨灾看跌期权”的因素。那些更愿意短期买卖的投资者，其安全系数──即对于不可预见之下行风险、分析方面的失误、或是单纯的坏运气所带来的潜在损失的缓冲──有所降低。

若没有这部分抵御风险的缓冲，一旦任何可能出现的负面场景成为现实，则投资者将面临着遭受无可挽回的长期资产损失的风险。当然，在此期间，该投资者能够得到一笔“看跌期权溢价”，这笔溢价可能会表现为很高的以市值计算的短期回报。

3. 波动率无法准确地衡量风险

这一交易策略本身所蕴含的卖出巨灾看跌期权行为的风险通常会被低估。由于长期投资者很少“兑现筹码离场”，因此对于一种投资策略而言，该策略所能实现的任何几何倍数的投资回报系列之终点在哪里最为重要。这一卖出巨灾看跌期权的行为很难用诸如夏普比率(Sharpe Ratio)这样传统的以市场价格为基础来评估每单位回报之风险的衡量指标来捕捉到。

从更笼统的角度来看，人们普遍以能够观察到的市场价格变动来衡量“风险”，这从直觉上感觉就有问题。这就好比：卖出任何巨灾看跌期权的最好时机是在巨灾刚刚发生之后，而为某家公司股价因故大跌“买保险”的最好时机是在导致股价下跌的原因已经被股价消化之后。而实际上，通常让我们最感到担心的是那些尚未被观察到的风险。

4. 你所付出的是价格，得到的是价值

隐藏在价值投资者所采用投资方法背后的，是一个简单的事实：一只证券的价格仅对这只证券的交易双方有意义。

而这件事的美妙之处就在于：决定我们究竟是买家还是卖家、以及何时应该出手的那个人是我们自己。

市场先生必须给我们提供一个足够有吸引力的价格，让我们感觉满意，这时我们才会进场买入，还必须为我们手中所持有的证券提供一个很棒的价格，我们才会将这些证券脱手。其余时间，我们大可袖手旁观，耐心等待。

要争取让自己处于更有利的位置，我们不需要了解所有（或者甚至是大多数）市场先生每日给我们提供报价的证券。我们只需列好购物清单，上面写上我们愿意以合适价格买入其股票的公司名称，然后直接去找市场先生，或是翻翻市场先生每天放进低价处理货架上的那些东西，看看在这里面能否找到物超所值的交易。

5. 别亏钱

作为一种投资方式，价值投资从逻辑上讲很合理，但从人的认知角度（和心理角度来看）却很难真正做到。

如果我们百分之百地确定甲公司的股票值100美元，那么我们当然愿意以60美元买入，如果这只股票跌到30美元，我们甚至会买进更多。

但在现实世界里，通往真知灼见的路上存在着一些基本的障碍。其中包括未来的不确定性、公众可得信息的不完备、信息的含混之处（在复杂的系统中尤其如此，这限制了信息所能发挥的作用）、还有我们分析能力以及才干的局限性。

有一件事让我们有强烈的切身感受，即我们所能了解的事物并不可靠，这让我们感到无能为力：我们通常会发现，我们对自己所研究那些公司的信息知道得越多，我们会越发意识到，我们实际上对这些公司所知甚少。

不过我们还是需要坚守这样的信念：实际上，每一家企业都有其“内在价值”，对此，我们必须尽我们所能做出一个估计。

诚实面对自己的认知能力，这一点非常重要：由于机构设置问题，分析师有可能出于自身利益而固执地坚称甲公司的内在价值是100美元，就算这家公司从来没有达到过这个价位，也绝不承认错误。在认知方面的不诚实、甚至傲慢自大对价值买家而言是致命伤：分析上犯了错（即使这些错误从来没有被承认过、哪怕是对自己都没有承认过），还要双倍下注，不断地花冤枉钱，这无疑是赔钱的最好办法。

（Soo Chuen Tan 是私人投资机构Discerene Value Advisors LLC的管理成员，该机构为捐赠基金、基金会及家族办公室提供投资咨询服务，遵循的是长期集中深入的价值投资的理念。）

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

Matthew Boesler

 Jan. 30, 2013

AP

Good morning. Here's what you need to know.

• Asian markets were higher in overnight trading. The Japanese Nikkei rose 2.3 percent while the Shanghai Composite advanced 1.0 percent and the Hang Seng gained 0.7 percent. European markets are mostly lower, with Italy down 2 percent. In the United States, futures point to a negative open.

• The euro is ripping higher this morning after the results of a 3-month ECB long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) auction confirmed that euro area banks are decreasing their dependence on the central bank. The data reinforce the mood in Europe that monetary policy is beginning to tighten.

• Spain's recession intensified in the fourth quarter of 2012. GDP fell 1.8 percent from the previous year, worse than economists' estimates of a 1.7 percent drop. The pace of contraction also accelerated from the previous quarter, when GDP fell 1.6 percent.

• Boeing reported earnings of $1.28 per share, above analysts' estimates of $1.18. Revenues came in just below expectations at $22.3 billion, but guidance was soft. The company briefly addressed its 787 Dreamliner crisis in the release, but we should get more guidance on the earnings call. 

• Amazon reported earnings, revenue, and profit guidance below analysts' estimates last night after the closing bell. However, the stock soared to an all-time high in after-hours trading once investors saw that the company also recorded a modest increase in profit margins.

• Chesapeake Energy CEO Aubrey McClendon will ste down April 1, citing philosophical differences with the board of directors. The stock soared more than 10 percent in after-hours trading on the announcement. McClendon spent much of 2012 embroiled in a financial controversy.

• U.S. American Eagle silver coin sales surged to an all-time high of 7.1 million ounces in January. "Not only do we have clients calling in, they are buying in huge quantities...they are buying the entire 500-ounce boxes that are sealed by the U.S. Mint, that's what people want right now," a retail coin dealer told Reuters.

• ADP's January employment report showed that 192,000 private payrolls were added this month, above economists' estimates of 165,000 added. However, last month's figure was revised down sharply from 215,000 to 185,000. The report foreshadows the official unemployment data out tomorrow morning.

• At 8:30 AM, we got the first estimate for U.S. fourth-quarter GDP and it was a shocker. The BEA reported that the economy shrank by 0.1 percent during the quarter.  Economists had forecasted that the economy grew 1.1 percent after advancing 3.1 percent in Q3. Personal consumption grew 2..2 percent after posting 1.6 percent growth in the Q3.

• At 2:15 PM ET, the Federal Open Market Committee announces its January interest rate decision. The consensus estimate among economists is that the Fed will buy $1.14 trillion in bonds under its latest quantitative easing program before ending asset purchases sometime in the first quarter of 2014. The Fed's most recent release – minutes from the last meeting – has sent yields on an upward trajectory, so traders will also be watching closely for a shift in tone.

30 Jan 2013 Kuala Lumpur Closing Stock Prices

Close Prior Change % Change AMMB 6.35 6.36 -0.01 -0.16 BAT  57.44 57.06 +0.38 +0.67 C&C 2.79 2.74 +0.05 +1.82 Genting 9.35 9.52 -0.17 -1.79 GenM 3.67 3.70 -0.03 -0.81 IGB 2.34 2.36 -0.02 -0.85 L&G 0.39 0.40 -0.01 -2.53 MayBank 8.90 8.91 -0.01 -0.11 MAS 0.70 0.70 -0.01 -0.71 PetGas 18.72 18.82 -0.10 -0.53 PbBank 15.52 15.64 -0.12 -0.77 RHBCap 7.74 7.72 +0.02 +0.26 Sime 9.29 9.37 -0.08 -0.85 Telekom 5.56 5.58 -0.02 -0.36 Tenaga 7.00 7.06 -0.06 -0.85 TopGlove 5.25 5.24 +0.01 +0.19 UMW 12.14 12.16 -0.02 -0.16 YTL 1.69 1.71 -0.02 -1.17

30 Jan 2013 Kuala Lumpur Most Actives

Volume Close Change % Change CAP 192,279,200 0.780 unch unch Compugt 37,431,000 0.085 -0.005 -5.56 OMedia 35,566,600 0.120 +0.005 +4.35 Patimas 34,806,700 0.115 unch unch Tebrau 29,722,600 0.940 +0.030 +3.30 Axiata 25,378,900 6.290 -0.060 -0.94 ASuprem 18,528,900 0.185 unch unch DiGi 18,472,900 4.930 -0.010 -0.20 TMS 14,733,000 0.080 unch unch Telekom 13,636,400 5.560 -0.020 -0.36 Itronics 12,084,500 0.595 +0.055 +10.19 CIMB 12,021,400 7.220 -0.020 -0.28 Flonic 11,041,300 0.075 -0.010 -11.76 Tenaga 10,661,600 7.000 -0.060 -0.85 KAssets 10,544,000 0.060 +0.005 +9.09 Utopia 10,234,700 0.075 +0.010 +15.38 MayBank 10,224,400 8.900 -0.010 -0.11 Scomi 9,934,700 0.350 +0.005 +1.45 Tiger 9,094,500 0.320 -0.010 -3.03 KNM 8,773,300 0.480 -0.010 -2.04 IRIS 8,153,100 0.170 +0.005 +3.03 PbBank 8,005,400 15.520 -0.120 -0.77 Maxis 7,802,900 6.370 +0.010 +0.16 Luster 7,742,200 0.105 unch unch Gamuda 7,584,600 3.680 -0.080 -2.13 PasuKGB 7,565,300 0.245 -0.010 -3.92 AirAsia 7,538,200 2.760 unch unch Astro 7,507,400 2.800 -0.030 -1.06 Takaso 7,215,600 0.215 -0.005 -2.27 SKPetro 7,171,000 2.860 -0.040 -1.38 GenM 7,016,300 3.670 -0.030 -0.81 Ewein 6,868,200 0.840 +0.040 +5.00 Sime 6,426,800 9.290 -0.080 -0.85 IHH 6,034,200 3.250 +0.040 +1.25 Alam 5,953,500 0.840 -0.010 -1.18 IngenCo 5,710,800 0.090 +0.010 +12.50 Pos 5,665,600 3.610 +0.020 +0.56 Daya 5,636,800 0.215 -0.005 -2.27 Perisai 5,606,000 1.030 -0.010 -0.96 SKPRes 5,592,000 0.335 +0.005 +1.52 HWGB 5,527,600 0.255 -0.010 -3.77 MUI 5,385,600 0.200 unch unch DRB-HICOM 5,371,700 2.590 -0.030 -1.15 IRCB 5,295,300 0.150 +0.005 +3.45 YTL 5,136,100 1.690 -0.020 -1.17 Kbunai 5,134,000 0.115 unch unch PetChem 4,884,700 6.010 -0.020 -0.33 GPRO 4,737,500 0.085 -0.005 -5.56 MRCB 4,618,700 1.410 -0.020 -1.40 XOX 4,530,200 0.145 +0.005 +3.57

STOCKS INCH CLOSER TO AN ALL-TIME HIGH: Here's What You Need To Know

Sam Ro

 Jan. 29, 2013

Nokia's Official Flickr

After a one-day pause, stocks resumed their epic rally.

First the scoreboard:

Dow: 13,954, +72.4, +0.5 percent

S&P 500: 1,507, +7.6, +0.5 percent

NASDAQ: 3,153, -0.6, -0.0 percent

And now the top stories:

• The Dow and S&P 500 are extending their epic post-crisis rallies.  And they're not very from their all-time highs.  On October 9, 2007, the Dow closed at 14,164.  The S&P 500 closed at 1,565 on that same day.

• The Case-Shiller home price report showed that prices climbed 5.52 percent in November, which was right in line with expectations.  This confirmed to everyone that the U.S. housing recovery persists.

• However, the latest reading of consumer confidence kept the optimists in check.  The Conference Board's reading of consumer confidence plunged to 58.6.  Economists were looking for 64.0.  "The increase in the payroll tax has undoubtedly dampened consumers’ spirits and it may take a while for confidence to rebound and consumers to recover from their initial paycheck shock," wrote the Conference Board.

• Skeptics are worried that stocks can't continue this huge rally.  But there are also plenty of strategists who see plenty of reasons for more gains.  One of the most popular bullish arguments right now is the idea of a "great rotation" of funds out of bonds and into stocks.

• Citi's Robert Buckland also examined past experiences with huge stock market rallies.  He found that previous 20 percent rallies were followed by addition double-digit gains when the markets met five conditions: "(1) lower than average starting valuations, (2) double digit EPS growth, (3) rising PMIs, (4) higher US government bond yields and, (5) sustained flows into equities."

• Fidelity portfolio manager Jurrien Timmer closely examined the secular bull and bear markets going back to 1871.  He found that the average secular bear market lasted 14.5 years.  He also noted the secular bear market that we're currently in is "getting a bit long in the tooth" now that it's in its 13th year.  This means we could be witnessing the dawn of a new stock market super cycle.

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

Matthew Boesler

 Jan. 29, 2013

Shutterstock

Good morning. Here's what you need to know.

• Asian markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. The Japanese Nikkei rose 0.4 percent and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.5 percent, officially entering a bull market. European markets are in the red, with Spain and Italy both down 0.6 percent. In the United States, futures point to a negative open.

• The Federal Reserve begins its two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting today. With the bond market more skittish than usual as investors try to guess when the Fed will pull back the stimulus, the outcome of the meeting will be closely watched. The consensus estimate among economists is that the Fed will buy $1.14 trillion in bonds under its latest quantitative easing program before ending asset purchases sometime in the first quarter of 2014.

• Ford reported earnings of $0.32 per share versus estimates of $0.25 and revenues of $36.5 billion versus estimates of $33.03 billion in Q4 2012. Pre-tax profits were the highest in a decade and were driven by a boost in Ford F-Series pickup truck sales in North America.

• Global mining giant Anglo American announced it would take a $4 billion writedown on its iron ore mining project in Brazil after uncontrolled costs and delays upped the final bill on the project. Other mining companies are expected to announce similar writedowns as they deal with the same issues.

• Japan small business confidence rose for the second straight month in January to an index level of 44.3 from last month's reading of 43.8. Manufacturing confidence rose to 41.1 from the last month's reading of 40.7 and nonmanufacturing confidence rose to 46.9 from 46.4 last month.

• The Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates to 7.75 percent from 8 percent and lowered the cash reserve ratio to 4 percent from 4.25 percent in a bid to spur growth, saying it had policy space – "albeit limited" – to do so. The central bank also lowered its March inflation forecast to 6.8 percent from 7.5 percent. The country is facing declining growth rates and growing deficits.

• The German GfK consumer sentiment index rose to 5.8 for February from January's 5.7 reading. The economic expectations sub-index rose to -11.3 from last month's reading of -17.9. On economic expectations, GfK said, "The downward trend of the indicator has come to an end. It is becoming ever more realistic to hope that the tide will soon turn."

• After the closing bell Monday, Yahoo! reported earnings of $0.32 per share versus expectations of $0.28 and revenues of $1.22 billion versus estimates of $1.21 billion. Search revenues were up 14 percent from the previous year, but display advertising was down 5 percent.

• At 9 AM ET, the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index for November is released. Economists estimate the index rose 0.7 percent from the previous month and 5.5 percent from the previous year. The index is expected to clock in at 145.94.

• At 10 AM, the Conference Board releases January Consumer Confidence data. The index is expected to fall to 64.0 from last month's 65.1 reading.

CITI: Here's Why The World's Rich Countries Will Always Win A Currency War

Joe Weisenthal

 Jan. 29, 2013

Wikimedia Commons

The basic concept of "currency wars" is that countries are all trying to weaken their currencies to boost exports. "Wars" is an overly dramatic word to use, but countries to complain about other countries engaging in currency weakening, and it does make for a good soundbite.

Anyway, Citi's currency guru Steven Englander has an interesting note out about who inevitably "wins" these wars, and the answer is similar to that of real wars: the rich countries.

As he puts it, they win because they're indifferent to the consequences.

He lists several reasons why. We summarize.

• Countries with deflation have a big advantage. Rich countries (Switzerland, Japan, etc.) that have falling prices just don't have the inflation risk that, say, a Brazil has. So the rich countries have way more leverage.
• Being poor is a disadvantage. If you have to worry about feeding yourself, then you're taking a big risk weakening your currency.
• Not caring about inflation is an advantage. Again, go back to the first point.
• Not caring about domestic asset inflation is an advantage. If you're the US, UK, or Japan, you don't mind rising asset prices at home. They help from a wealth effect standpoint. China? They're more worried.
• Countries with central banks and Treasuries that are conjoined have an advantage, as the central bank can monetize more easily.
• Currency caps are risky for some countries. If Australia tried to do what Switzerland did (when it capped its currency against the Euro) Australia would be faced with an onslaught of foreign currency buyers that they don't want.

Anyway, some interesting food for thought as you think about the dynamics, and you think about who's doing the "currency wars" complaining. And though the phrase originally originated from Brazil (and seems to be popular in China as well) the latest round of complaining comes from Germany towards Japan, so it's not just a poor vs. rich thing.

29 Jan 2013 Kuala Lumpur Closing Stock Prices

Close Prior Change % Change AMMB 6.36 6.37 -0.01 -0.16 BAT 57.06 58.34 -1.28 -2.19 C&C 2.74 2.76 -0.02 -0.72 Genting 9.52 9.60 -0.08 -0.83 GenM 3.70 3.70 unch unch IGB 2.36 2.41 -0.05 -2.07 L&G 0.40 0.40 -0.01 -1.25 MayBank 8.91 8.90 +0.01 +0.11 MAS 0.70 0.71 -0.01 -0.71 PetGas 18.82 18.90 -0.08 -0.42 PbBank 15.64 15.68 -0.04 -0.26 RHBCap 7.72 7.76 -0.04 -0.52 Sime 9.37 9.29 +0.08 +0.86 Telekom 5.58 5.57 +0.01 +0.18 Tenaga 7.06 7.05 +0.01 +0.14 TopGlove 5.24 5.25 -0.01 -0.19 UMW 12.16 12.10 +0.06 +0.50 YTL 1.71 1.73 -0.02 -1.16

29 Jan 2013 Kuala Lumpur Most Actives

Volume Close Change % Change TMS 145,670,700 0.080 -0.010 -11.11 Patimas 94,122,400 0.115 unch unch OMedia 87,334,900 0.115 unch unch Tebrau 29,201,900 0.910 -0.020 -2.15 IHH 23,080,900 3.210 -0.090 -2.73 Tiger 22,930,700 0.330 unch unch HWGB 20,492,500 0.265 -0.025 -8.62 Daya 19,414,000 0.220 +0.005 +2.33 CIMB 14,074,400 7.240 +0.030 +0.42 Maxis 13,758,300 6.360 -0.020 -0.31 Axiata 13,226,100 6.350 -0.020 -0.31 KAssets 11,611,500 0.055 -0.005 -8.33 Flonic 11,553,400 0.085 unch unch Gamuda 11,220,100 3.760 +0.120 +3.30 Takaso 10,604,000 0.220 unch unch MayBank 9,907,500 8.910 +0.010 +0.11 Compugt 9,893,600 0.090 unch unch Tenaga 9,779,400 7.060 +0.010 +0.14 Telekom 9,394,700 5.580 +0.010 +0.18 Astro 9,353,300 2.830 -0.030 -1.05 KNM 8,213,700 0.490 -0.005 -1.01 GenM 7,982,300 3.700 unch unch YTL 7,961,000 1.710 -0.020 -1.16 Sime 7,940,600 9.370 +0.080 +0.86 Alam 7,819,100 0.850 unch unch AMedia 7,723,200 0.170 unch unch AirAsia 7,640,700 2.760 -0.020 -0.72 Mtronic 7,404,900 0.105 unch unch SKPetro 6,611,400 2.900 -0.050 -1.69 DiGi 6,002,400 4.940 +0.010 +0.20 GPRO 5,841,600 0.085 -0.005 -5.56 AMMB 5,806,300 6.360 -0.010 -0.16 Lingui 5,720,300 1.620 +0.010 +0.62 IRCB 5,608,900 0.145 -0.010 -6.45 DRBHICOM 5,517,400 2.620 -0.010 -0.38 Unisem 5,502,500 1.040 -0.030 -2.80 UEMLand 5,339,500 2.210 +0.020 +0.91 Glotec 5,308,300 0.065 -0.010 -13.33 PetChem 5,301,700 6.030 -0.040 -0.66 Nextnat 5,039,300 0.095 unch unch Scomi 4,807,600 0.345 -0.005 -1.43 Benalec 4,475,100 1.170 -0.050 -4.10 Perisai 4,322,500 1.040 -0.010 -0.95 INIX 4,300,700 0.150 unch unch MRCB 4,124,400 1.430 -0.020 -1.38 IngenCo 4,011,000 0.080 -0.005 -5.88 Genting 3,890,800 9.520 -0.080 -0.83 MISC 3,777,300 4.530 +0.180 +4.14 KBB 3,711,700 0.500 -0.010 -1.96 P.A. 3,497,000 0.135 +0.005 +3.85

STOCKS FALL AFTER EPIC 8-DAY WIN STREAK: Here's What You Need To Know

Sam Ro

 Jan. 28, 2013

AP

The S&P 500's 8-day win streak ended today.

First the scoreboard:

Dow: 13,881, -14.0, -0.1 percent

S&P 500: 1,500, -2.7, -0.1 percent

NASDAQ: 3,156, +4.5, +0.1 percent

And now the top stories:

• The last time the S&P 500 closed positive for nine straight days was November 2004.  Unfortunately, the recent win streak ended at eight.

• Machinery giant Caterpillar announced its Q4 financial results this morning, and sales and earnings were better than analysts' expectations. Management also issued earnings guidance that was right in line with expectations.  The stock rallied today.  

• Caterpillar also provided a detailed, quantitative forecast for the global economy including projections for interest rates and commodities prices. "While we expect some improvement in the U.S. economy, growth is expected to be relatively weak," said Caterpillar CEO Doug Oberhelman. "We believe China's economy will continue to improve, but not to the growth rates of 2010 and 2011. We also remain concerned about Europe and expect economies in that region will continue to struggle in 2013." 

• Durable goods orders surged 4.6 percent in December, which was much higher than the 2.0 percent growth forecasted by economists. However, nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft rose 0.3 percent, missing expectations of a 0.8 percent gain.

• Pending home sales unexpectedly fell 4.3 percent in December.  Economists were looking for the pending figure to remain unchanged.  However, this was not due to lack of demand. Rather supplies for homes under $100k were tight, which kept homebuyers from signing on the dotted line.

• The Dallas Fed manufacturing index climbed modestly to 5.5, which was higher than what economists were expecting.  Gains were led by big jumps in new orders, capacity utilization, and employment.

• Yahoo announces earnings after the closing bell.