MARKET RALLY CRUMBLES IN THE FINAL MINUTES OF THE DAY: Here's What You Need To Know

Sam Ro

 Feb. 28, 2013

Paul-W / Flickr

Markets were up for most of the day.  Midday, the Dow was up as much as 75 point.  Stocks were about to close at a new highs. But the rally disappeared.

First the scoreboard:

Dow: 14,054, -20.8 pts, -0.1 percent

S&P 500: 1,514, -1.3 pts, -0.0 percent

NASDAQ: 3,160, -2.0 pts, -0.0 percent

And now the top stories:

• The Dow and S&P closed almost at a new post-crisis, bull-market high again. But a weird late day sell-off put the markets barely in the red.  Still, both indices are very near their all-time highs. The Dow closed at its all-time high of 14,164 on October 9, 2007.  The  S&P closed at its all-time high of 1,565 that same day.

• Meanwhile, the we have reached the deadline for the sequester.  Sequestration is the $85 billion worth of Federal budget cuts that will begin to ripple across the economy tomorrow.

• There were two big economic reports today.  First was the revision to Q4 GDP.  It was bumped up to +0.1 percent from -0.1 percent a month ago.  However, it was still worse than the expectation for +0.5 percent.  Even worse, the personal consumption component was revised down to +2.1 percent.  "In a way, I would have rather had it stay negative and had the old details that I had before," said UBS's Drew Matus.

• Initial jobless claims, however, was more encouraging.  Claims fell to 344k from 362k a week ago.  This was lower than the 360k expected by economists.

• In notable stock market moves, JC Penney cratered today after the company reported a massive quarterly net loss of $1.95 per share.  This was due to a breath-taking collapse in same-store sales.  One of the big losers in this was hedge funder Bill Ackman, who has a massive investment in the company.
• 
  
• Another big mover in the markets was Herbalife, the company that's being accused of being a pyramid scheme by hedge funder Bill Ackman.  Herbalife announced that it was adding two Carl Icahn nominees to its board of directors.  Icahn, who has a big investment in the company, benefitted from the stock's 7 percent rally today.  Meanwhile, Ackman was a loser again.

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

Matthew Boesler

\ Feb. 28, 2013

flickr / Greg Hernandez

Good morning. Here's what you need to know.

• Markets in Asia soared in overnight trading. The Japanese Nikkei rose 2.7 percent and the Hang Seng advanced 2 percent. European markets are in the green with the exception of Italy, which is currently down 0.1 percent. In the United States, futures point to a positive open.

• The Japanese government officially nominated Haruhiko Kuroda to take over the top spot at the Bank of Japan in April. Kuroda, who serves as the head of the Asian Development Bank, is considered to be strongly dovish toward monetary policy, and he was widely tipped as the frontrunner for the nomination. Nomura economist Richard Koo, for one, likes the pick.

• Japanese industrial production expanded 1 percent in January, missing estimates of 1.4 percent growth. The data reflect a slowing expansion from the previous month, when production grew 2.4 percent. Year over year, output is still down 5.1 percent. Housing starts also missed expectations, rising 5 percent year over year in January versus the 8.8 percent expansion predicted by economists.

• According to documents obtained by Bloomberg, the Reserve Bank of Australia believes that the Aussie dollar is overvalued on the order of 4 to 15 percent, per its own models. However, the documents also clarified that the Aussie dollar doesn't post a near-term risk of deflation, nor is it "contractionary" for the economy, which may temper fears of an intervention to devalue the currency.

• Switzerland reported 0.2 percent GDP growth in the fourth quarter, exceeding estimates of a flat reading but slowing from the previous quarter, when the economy grew 0.6 percent. German employment figures were also better than expected, as 3,000 left the ranks of the unemployed in January.

• J.C. Penney reported quarterly results well below the Street's expectations after the closing bell. The company posted a loss of $1.95 per share versus the $0.24 per-share loss predicted by analysts. Revenues came in at $3.88 billion, well below the $4.08 billion expected. The stock tanked in after-hours trading. 

• Due out at 8:30 AM ET is the second estimate for fourth quarter U.S. GDP growth. Economists expect the second estimate to show that the economy grew 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast with the initial print, which indicated a 0.1 percent contraction. Recent improvements in backward-looking economic data are the main reason for optimism toward today's release. 

• Also at 8:30 AM are weekly jobless claims data. Economists expect claims to decrease slightly to 360,000 from 362,000 the week before. Initial claims are also expected to moderate slightly to 3.143 million from 3.148 million. Last week's data contained estimated figures from four states due to the holiday-shortened week.

• At 10 AM, Chicago PMI for February is released. Economists expect the index to fall to 54.0 from last month's 55.6 reading, indicating a slowing pace of expansion in the Midwest region.

• At 11 AM, the Kansas City Fed releases its monthly survey of manufacturing activity. That index is expected to increase slightly to -1 from -2 last month, indicating improving – yet still negative – conditions in the region. 

28 Feb 2013 Kuala Lumpur Closing Stock Prices

Close Prior Change % Change AMMB 6.32 6.26 +0.06 +0.96 BAT 61.00 60.50 +0.50 +0.83 C&C 2.77 2.71 +0.06 +2.21 Genting 9.49 9.42 +0.07 +0.74 GenM 3.70 3.57 +0.13 +3.64 IGB 2.25 2.27 -0.02 -0.88 L&G 0.38 0.38 unch unch MayBank 9.15 9.12 +0.03 +0.33 MAS 0.74 0.73 +0.01 +0.68 PetGas 18.32 18.36 -0.04 -0.22 PbBank 16.12 15.98 +0.14 +0.88 RHBCap 7.85 7.75 +0.10 +1.29 Sime 9.21 9.17 +0.04 +0.44 Telekom 5.32 5.32 unch unch Tenaga 6.94 6.93 +0.01 +0.14 TopGlove 5.49 5.49 unch unch UMW 12.80 12.30 +0.50 +4.07 YTL 1.65 1.63 +0.02 +1.23

28 Feb 2013 Kuala Lumpur Most Actives

Volume Close Change % Change Patimas 61,924,700 0.045 +0.005 +12.50 Compugt 58,564,900 0.090 +0.005 +5.88 Luster 44,136,800 0.115 +0.010 +9.52 Harta 33,457,300 0.530 -0.130 -19.70 Perdana 24,336,900 1.290 +0.030 +2.38 IngenCo 23,762,500 0.100 unch unch Telekom 23,085,800 5.320 unch unch AGloba 22,924,900 0.085 +0.010 +13.33 GPRO 19,467,300 0.110 unch unch MayBank 17,589,600 9.150 +0.030 +0.33 Axiata 17,360,400 6.400 +0.060 +0.95 DiGi 16,648,500 4.570 unch unch Tiger 16,611,600 0.235 +0.005 +2.17 CIMB 14,292,800 7.200 +0.090 +1.27 PasuKGB 14,092,200 0.185 +0.005 +2.78 SKPetro 13,267,900 2.900 +0.030 +1.05 YTL 12,837,600 1.650 +0.020 +1.23 UEMLand 11,748,300 2.290 +0.010 +0.44 Sime 11,496,300 9.210 +0.040 +0.44 CAP 10,280,200 0.345 -0.015 -4.17 Tenaga 9,424,700 6.940 +0.010 +0.14 Tebrau 9,345,700 0.905 -0.020 -2.16 Naim 9,201,900 0.160 +0.010 +6.67 Frontkn 8,961,900 0.065 -0.005 -7.14 IHH 8,768,200 3.430 +0.020 +0.59 Fastrack 7,768,500 0.090 unch unch Gamuda 7,494,500 3.840 +0.060 +1.59 Itronic 6,995,300 0.595 +0.010 +1.71 IRMGrp 6,838,300 0.125 +0.010 +8.70 Censof 6,416,100 0.465 unch unch Benalec 6,266,900 1.180 -0.010 -0.84 PetChem 6,050,800 6.350 +0.100 +1.60 TMS 5,814,500 0.055 unch unch DRBHICOM 5,784,900 2.570 +0.010 +0.39 UMW 5,276,500 12.800 +0.500 +4.07 Armada 5,204,500 3.790 -0.010 -0.26 DSCSol 5,065,800 0.100 +0.005 +5.26 AsiaBios 4,896,700 0.065 unch unch MRCB 4,844,400 1.290 unch unch AMMB 4,678,800 6.320 +0.060 +0.96 PMCap 4,614,000 0.035 unch unch SPSetia 4,514,000 3.150 -0.030 -0.94 Maxis 4,502,300 6.370 +0.010 +0.16 MMC 4,434,200 2.510 +0.080 +3.29 RHBCap 4,141,500 7.850 +0.100 +1.29 Ingress 3,970,900 1.500 -0.090 -5.66 IOI 3,885,800 4.900 +0.020 +0.41 PbBank 3,842,500 16.120 +0.140 +0.88 HHCORP 3,779,600 0.145 +0.015 +11.54 Perduren 3,737,200 0.740 +0.125 +20.33

10 Hedge Funds With Huge Stakes In Groupon

Julia La Roche

 Feb. 27, 2013

Shares of Groupon are tanking in after-hours trading after the company missed earnings estimates. 

The stock was last trading down more than 25 percent in after-hours. 

Groupon's stock is still up year-to-date.

We noticed that during the fourth quarter of 2012 ended 12/31/2012, a bunch of hedge funds snapped up new stakes in the daily deal company. 

Here's a rundown of the hedge funds with the biggest stake in Groupon, according to 13F data compiled by Bloomberg. 

• Tiger Global Management — 65,000,000 shares or a 9.95% stake (added 63,7000,000 shares in Q4)
• Coatue Management — 7,479,338 shares (new stake in Q4)
• Silver Lake Group — 6,331,116 shares
• Miura Global Management — 3,600,000 shares (new stake in Q4)
• Criterion Capital Management — 3,597,000 shares (new stake in Q4)
• JAT Capital — 2,700,000 shares (sold 7,428,604 shares in Q4)
• TCS Capital Management — 2,000,000 shares (added 1,500,000 in Q4)
• Espalier Global Management — 1,820,936 shares (new stake in Q4)
• Magnetar Financial — 1,564,100 shares (new stake in Q4)
• Shannon River Fund Management — 800,000 shares (new stake in Q4)

Again, this data is from the most recent quarterly hedge fund filings with the SEC. These funds could have sold or added to their stakes in the last couple months. 

Solar Energy Stocks Are Getting Burned

Rob Wile

 Feb. 27, 2013

FSLRFeb 27 05:01PM 27.07 Change -4.29 % Change -13.68%

Solar industry stocks are tanking today.   Yesterday, First Solar issued an ugly outlook.

First Solar was down as much as 16 percent today.

The Arizona-based company said it now expects sales of $650 million to $750 million for the first quarter, which is below the $822 million consensus forecast, according to Marketwatch. Management also put their cash flow from operations forecast range at breakeven to up to $100 million, compared with analysts' expectations of  $214 million.  

Meanwhile, Changzhou-based Trina Solar posted a fourth-quarter loss of $1.23, nearly $0.50 worse than analysts' expectations, Marketwatch said. The company also had gross margins of just  4.4% in 2012 compared with 16.2% in 2011, which it attributed to oversupply and aggressive pricing.

Gold Prices Are Sliding

Mamta Badkar

 Feb. 27, 2013

As stock markets rally, metals are selling off.

Gold is down 1.3 percent, silver is off 1.4 percent, platinum is down 1.3 percent, and copper is down 0.5 percent. Palladium is however up 0.40 percent.

Gold had its "biggest one day rally in three months" yesterday, according to Reuters, after Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed was committed to easy monetary policy during his testimony.

But gold prices are down today as investors are concerned about the precious metals outlook in the long-term and after ETF holdings saw outflows, according to Reuters.

Here's a look at today's gold sell-off:

Fin Viz

DOW HITS NEW BULL-MARKET HIGH: Here's What You Need To Know

Sam Ro

 Feb. 27, 2013

Andrew_N / Flickr

Wow! What a huge day for stocks.

First the scoreboard:

Dow: 14,075, +175.2 pts, +1.2 percent

S&P 500: 1,515, +19.0 pts, +1.2 percent

NASDAQ: 3,162, +32.6 pts, +1.0 percent

And now the top stories:

• The Dow closed at a new post-crisis, bull-market high.  The S&P 500 got close. Both indices are near their all-time highs. The Dow closed at its all-time high of 14,164 on October 9, 2007.  The  S&P closed at its all-time high of 1,565 that same day.

• The big catalyst for the market rally was arguably the January durable goods report.  Aggregate orders actually fell by 5.2 percent, which was worse than the 4.8 percent decline expected.  However, this number tends to be very volatile due to orders for defense goods and aircraft, which both fell dramatically.

• When you strip all of the noisy items away from the report, you get a line item called nondefense orders excluding aircraft.  This is also known as core capex, and it's known to be a good barometer of business investment activity.  Well, core capex surged 6.3 percent.  Economists were looking for 0 percent growth.  Apparently, all of the uncertainty coming out of Washington didn't stop America from buying big ticket items.

• Last fall, economist David Rosenberg argued that core capex is a good recession indicator when you look at the year-over-year change in its three-month moving average.  After falling into recession territory for months, the measure turned positive today.

东益电子业绩有望再捎惊喜

东益电子（GTRONIC，7022，主板科技股）2012財政年业绩优於预期，市场看好今年各项业务可延续优异表现。

该股週三起2.3%或4仙，收报1.78令吉。

东益电子2012財政年业绩超越MIDF研究和侨丰投行的预期。其第四季净利按年大起123%，至1120万令吉，从上年同期的疲弱反弹。2011年第四季该公司面对库存过剩，净利下跌36%。

2012財政年全年净利成长55%，至4140万令吉，主要是大部分客户订单增加、较好的產品组合和经济规模，以及第三季脱售土地和工厂。

此外，第四季业绩也由营业额的强劲成长所带动，按年上升47.3%，至8530万令吉；全年营业额成长9.4%，至2亿9000万令吉，表现优於同行。

儘管第四季传统上乃淡季，但东益电子营业额仍取得8.9%按季成长，主要是新加坡业务的大幅成长。

同时，东益电子宣佈派发含特別股息，共8仙的股息，全年股息增至17仙，相等於9.8%週息率。

业务多元化大功臣

MIDF研究分析员看好，东益电子的业务多元化是业绩成长优异的原因之一，同时可確保未来的成长。其主要业务贡献来自计时和石英晶体装置（34%），以及发光二极管（LED）元件（28%）。管理层预测各项业务今年仍然会取得成长。

侨丰投行分析员指出，该公司在去年7月开始製造感应器（sensor），此新业务在2012財政年贡献总销售的7%，预计今年对公司的总销售可提高至25%。

MIDF研究分析员维持2013財政年盈利预测不变，但表示业绩表现可能再次超越他们的预期，受惠於智能装置的需求强劲。

基於去年表现良好，侨丰投行分析员则將2013財政年营业额和净利预测分別上调28.8%和9.5%。

MIDF研究和侨丰投行皆维持「买入」评级，分別给予1.96令吉和2.08令吉目標价格。 -

攫取智能手机平板电脑市场 东益电子成长前景看好 財经

-

面对科技领域波动的局势，东益电子（GTRONIC，7022，主板科技股）选择在迅速成长的智能手机和平板电脑市场发展，加上其强劲的基本面，市场看好其成长前景。

东益电子在2012年7月开始组装、製造和测试感应器，尤其是新一代的感应器和供相机使用的光学镜片。

这类感应器涵盖电源管理器件，可確保智能手机和平板电脑具有省电模式，加强產品电池寿命。

侨丰投行分析员对该公司的感应器和光学镜片业务持有正面看法，其中东益电子已在11月间成为有关產品承包商。有鑑於此，分析员相信东益电子在2013年开始，营业额和净利將有正面效应。

同时，该公司近期获得为期10年的先锋地位，享有全面免税的优惠。

在过去十年，东益电子的净赚幅稳步成长。这归功於，该公司从纯製造集成电路业务，多元至生產光二极管、水晶和定时装置的策略，隨后更扩展至迅速增长的智能手机和平板电脑相关的感应器產品生產。

未来，分析员预测东益电子的赚幅將持续提升，由高赚幅感应器產品贡献。

截至去年9月杪，该公司持有1亿零570万令吉现金，相等於每股39.2仙，且未有任何借贷项目。

另外，东益电子以净利50%作为股息的政策，且早在1998年已开始派发股息。

在2011財政年，该公司一共派发每股8.5仙股息，相等於85.1%的高派息率。

管理层导航

分析员预计东益电子在2012和2013財政年將派发每股11仙和14仙股息，周息率分別达7.7%和9.8%。

分析员看好东益电子有良好的管理层，可以在行业的上升和下跌循环中，为公司导航；此外，该公司也有强劲的资產负债表、持续性的高派息率，以及攫取智能手机和平板电脑蓬勃发展的能力。

因此，分析员给予该股「买进」评级，合理价格为1.91令吉。

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

Matthew Boesler

 Feb. 27, 2013

    Good morning. Here's what you need to know.

• Asian markets were mixed in overnight trading. The Japanese Nikkei fell 1.3 percent while the Shanghai Composite rose 0.9 percent. France is leading the way in Europe, up 0.6 percent. In the United States, futures point to a positive open.

• Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke concludes his semi-annual congressional testimony on monetary policy with a visit with the House Financial Services Committee, beginning this morning at 10 AM ET. Last week, the Committee gave Bernanke an ultimatum, asking him to release documents related to the Federal Reserve's plans for unwinding its $3 trillion bond portfolio by March 5.

• An auction of Italian 10-year government bonds went relatively smoothly this morning, assuaging fears of extreme market turmoil in the wake of the Italian election. Italy sold 4 billion euros of 10-year bonds at a yield of 4.83 percent, up from 4.17 percent at the previous auction. Markets rose on the news.

• A revised estimate of U.K. GDP indicated 0.3 percent growth in 2012, better than the initial estimate of no growth. However, the gains came earlier in the year, as Q4 GDP estimates remained unchanged at -0.3 percent.

• Euro zone economic confidence rose more than expected in February to 91.1 from last month's index reading of 89.5. Economists had predicted a smaller advance to 89.9. Survey data were collected prior to the Italian election, and Jonathan Loynes of Capital Economics said, "The Italy situation could renew these market pressures and reinforce the fact that the euro zone still faces huge pressures, both economic and political."

• Apple's annual shareholder meeting commences today at 12 PM ET. Investors will be listening closely for any comments from CEO Tim Cook about the company's giant cash horde, which has been the topic of intense debate in recent weeks. The meeting comes against a backdrop of efforts to deploy the cash led by activist hedge fund manager David Einhorn.

• New Jersey Governor Chris Christie legalized online gambling in his state yesterday. The move could generate $410 million per year, according to one estimate, of which the state of New Jersey will collect a 15 percent tax.

• A few retailers are set to report earnings before the opening bell this morning. Dollar Tree is expected to post earnings of $0.99 per share, while Target is expected to announce EPS of $1.52 and TJX, $0.80. Investors will be listening closely for a read on the American consumer, which is likely feeling the effects of higher gas prices and the expiration of payroll tax cuts.

• Due out at 8:30 AM ET are January durable goods orders data. Economists expect orders contracted 4.7 percent in January after expanding 4.3 percent in December. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft (core capex) are expected to post no growth after contracting 0.3 percent in December.

• January pending home sales data are released at 10 AM ET. Economists expect sales to have risen 7.9 percent last month after posting 4.9 percent gains in December.

27 Feb 2013 Kuala Lumpur Most Actives

Volume Close Change % Change Patimas 58,205,600 0.040 -0.010 -20.00 TMS 56,409,100 0.055 -0.005 -8.33 Compugt 48,481,600 0.085 -0.005 -5.56 AirAsia 33,552,800 2.860 +0.220 +8.33 PMCap 27,911,500 0.035 -0.030 -46.15 Luster 27,465,600 0.105 -0.005 -4.55 GPRO 22,006,000 0.110 unch unch PasuKGB 18,418,900 0.180 -0.015 -7.69 DiGi 17,942,500 4.570 +0.010 +0.22 MayBank 17,083,700 9.120 -0.020 -0.22 Axiata 13,634,700 6.340 +0.010 +0.16 ECM 12,799,500 0.860 +0.005 +0.58 Telekom 12,431,200 5.320 -0.010 -0.19 Perdana 10,030,000 1.260 +0.080 +6.78 IRMGrp 9,698,000 0.115 -0.020 -14.81 Tebrau 9,260,500 0.925 +0.040 +4.52 Maxis 9,093,300 6.360 +0.010 +0.16 CIMB 8,396,500 7.110 +0.040 +0.57 MAS 8,133,500 0.730 +0.030 +4.29 KNM 7,743,400 0.475 +0.010 +2.15 Censof 7,739,900 0.465 +0.010 +2.20 CAP 7,694,000 0.360 unch unch SPSetia 7,277,500 3.180 +0.010 +0.32 IngenCo 7,196,300 0.100 unch unch ASuprem 6,887,000 0.185 -0.010 -5.13 Tenaga 6,838,400 6.930 unch unch Sime 6,360,300 9.170 unch unch SKPetro 6,278,100 2.870 -0.010 -0.35 IHH 5,637,400 3.410 unch unch IRCB 5,631,400 0.195 -0.015 -7.14 Penta 5,623,800 0.210 +0.005 +2.44 WinSun 5,250,800 0.110 +0.020 +22.22 Harvest 5,215,500 0.265 +0.010 +3.92 Alam 5,210,200 0.820 +0.020 +2.50 Ingress 5,048,300 1.590 +0.120 +8.16 Itronic 4,766,100 0.585 unch unch PMHld 4,713,900 0.035 -0.010 -22.22 Mtronic 4,583,000 0.100 -0.005 -4.76 AGlobal 4,510,000 0.075 -0.005 -6.25 PbBank 4,460,400 15.980 +0.060 +0.38 Harta 4,014,000 0.660 +0.010 +1.54 Gamuda 3,956,900 3.780 -0.070 -1.82 YTL 3,900,400 1.630 unch unch CBSA 3,835,700 0.450 +0.005 +1.12 UMW 3,798,600 12.300 +0.200 +1.65 UEMLand 3,294,700 2.280 unch unch FGV 3,229,800 4.430 -0.010 -0.23 DRBHICOM 3,190,700 2.560 +0.050 +1.99 AMedia 3,144,100 0.140 unch unch Flonic 3,120,500 0.070 unch unch

Japan's Stock Market Is Having Another Down Day

Sam Ro

 Feb. 26, 2013

tHis1tRik4U / Flickr

Markets are mostly up in Asia follow a rally in the US that was fueled by positive economic data.  But Japan is the notable loser.

Japan's Nikkei is down 0.8 percent.

Korea's Kospi is up 0.2 percent.

Australia's S&P/ASX is up 0.7 percent.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng is up 0.4 percent.

China's Shanghai Composite is up 0.3 percent.

Japan's sell-off is likely attributable to modest gains in the yen against other international currencies.  This makes the country's exports more expensive and it's the exact opposite of what its leaders want.

Okay, It's Time We Talked About Apple's iWatch...

Henry Blodget

 Feb. 26, 2013

USPTO

See Also

Apple Stock Tanks Again -- Getting Close To A New Low

This Is 'Apple's Biggest Challenge' Making An iWatch

Apple's 'iWatch' Patent Filing Revealed

One of the few remaining hopes of the Apple bulls is that Apple will soon introduce a dazzling new smartwatch--the iWatch--that will instantly create a whole new must-have gadget category that Apple will dominate.

After all, that's what Apple did with portable music players, smartphones, and tablets.

And the years after Apple invented and then dominated those gadget categories were good years indeed.

There is certainly a lot of evidence to suggest that Apple is about to introduce this iWatch. There are the non-stop reports that Apple's working on such a watch, for example. And there's the patent filing. And there's supply chain scuttlebutt. And so forth.

So let's just go ahead and assume that Apple's going to launch the iWatch.

And let's assume that the iWatch will do the following:

• Show the time
• Show calendar reminders
• Show directions and maps (GPS location-powered)
• Show instant messages, texts, and emails
• Show news headlines
• Show the weather
• Maybe stream music to bluetooth headsets
• Maybe allow you to do the Captain Kirk thing and talk to your wrist while making awkward phone calls
• Maybe tell you how many steps you've walked and other fitness-type things
• Maybe connect via WiFi when you're at home
• Tether to your iPhone to do all of this when you're out and about (otherwise it's just a watch)
• Have apps
• Do other cool-sounding things

And let's assume that Apple will charge, say, $199 for this watch.

Are you really going to want one?

Well, obviously, if you're an Apple zealot, you're going to want one. If you're an Apple zealot, you're going to wait in line all night for one and rave about it the moment you get it and feel superior to and sorry for people who don't have it.

But if you're a normal person are you going to want one?

Well, obviously we should reserve final judgement until we actually see the iWatch, but I have to say that, thus far, I don't feel any great desire to have one.

Why not?

Because I just don't think it's all that much of a burden to take out my smartphone.

I love my smartphone (an iPhone). I'm so used to using it, it is basically a part of my hand by now. I don't consider it a burden at all to hold on to or operate my iPhone.

And with the exception of the possible "fitness tracking," the iWatch just sounds like a smaller, more limited, more awkward smartphone.

We presumably will not be able to type on our iWatches.

We presumably won't really be able to use the Internet on our iWatches.

We won't be able to watch movies on our iWatches.

We won't be able to take good pictures with our iWatches (or, at least, we won't be able to take good pictures any more easily than we can with our iPhones).

And if I'm going to have to carry my smartphone anyway, to give the iWatch Internet access, I can't imagine why I would also want to carry around another smaller, crappier version of my smartphone.

Maybe the iWatch will just connect directly to cellular networks, thus alleviating the need to carry around a smartphone.

That would make the iWatch more appealing for some people, presumably--the folks who rarely use the screens of their smartphones.

But assuming the iWatch does need to be "paired" with a smartphone?

Then it just doesn't seem all that useful.

The Observer

Some iWatch concepts.

The Wall Street Journal's gadget god Walt Mossberg just reviewed another smartwatch, by the way--the new "Pebble" smartwatch that the techochamber is all jazzed about. He didn't like it much. The Pebble watch didn't work very well when Walt used it, but presumably the Pebble folks will work the bugs out. More disturbing, at least for those who expect the iWatch to save Apple, is that the Pebble watch just didn't seem that useful.

And then there's the price.

Anything's possible, but it's hard to see how Apple could charge more than, say, $199 for a smartwatch--especially if it needs a smartphone to operate.

And if Apple charges $199 for the iWatch, then Apple has to sell an absolute boatload of iWatches for the iWatch to really move Apple's revenue needle.

So, although I confess that I'm excited by the possibility that Apple might soon launch a whole new product category, I'm skeptical about the near-term potential of the iWatch. It just doesn't sound that insanely great to me.

Dow Now Up Over 120 Points After 4 Big Pieces Of News

Joe Weisenthal

 Feb. 26, 2013

DPA Moscow

The dow is up over 120 points.

There are four big pieces of news

• New Home Sales crushed expectations.
• Richmond Fed manufacturing jumped unexpectedly.
• Consumer confidence surged.
• Bernanke said risks remain tilted in favor of more easing.

Oh and there's some subsiding of the Italian panic.

The USDA's Corn Crop Forecasts Are Almost Always Too Optimistic

Rob Wile

 Feb. 26, 2013

AP Images

Morgan Stanley agriculture analyst Bennett Meier hammers the USDA's 2013 corn crop outlook today, saying the agency's late-winter corn call is almost always wrong.

Given asymmetric yield risk, USDA’s first forecasts are overly optimistic in our view. USDA based its 163.6 bu/acre corn yield forecast on a weather-adjusted trend model, assuming “normal” early-season plantings and June/July weather. Good weather during the growing season could produce such an outcome, but we view the USDA yield outlook as more of a bull case than a base case.

The USDA has a history of being too optimistic early in the marketing year, with final yields coming in below initial estimates in 5 of the past 6 years. Moreover, the ongoing drought in the US plains presents significant downside risk in the event of a dry summer.

Meier is calling for yields of 155 bushels per acre and 13.8 billion total bushels of production, compared with the USDA's 163.6 bu/acre and 14.5 billion figure.

As it happens, Maier's projections still represent an improvement over last year's figures of 123.4 yield and 10.7 billion bushels of production.

DOW JUMPS 115 POINTS: Here's What You Need To Know

Sam Ro

 Feb. 26, 2013

shayhaas / Flickr

After some swings, stocks ended up for the day.

First the scoreboard:

Dow: 13,900, +115.9 pts, +0.8 percent

S&P 500: 1,496, +9.0 pts, +0.6 percent

NASDAQ: 3,129, +13.4 pts, +0.4 percent

And now the top stories:

• Stocks staged a nice rally today in the wake of some good economic news.

• According to Case-Shiller, U.S. home prices jumped 6.84 percent year-over-year in December.  This was slightly above the 6.62 percent gain economists were looking for.  Of the twenty cities tracked by Case-Shiller, only New York City saw a decline.

• New home sales crushed expectations and surged 15.6 percent in January.  Economists were looking for a modest 3.0 percent gain.  New home supply also fell to a multi-year low of 4.1 percent.  However, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Michelle Meyer warned us that these monthly numbers can be quite volatile.  "We could see a revision or a partial payback in coming months," she said.

• Consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, surged to 69.6 in February, up from 58.4 in January. "Consumer Confidence rebounded in February as the shock effect caused by the fiscal cliff uncertainty and payroll tax cuts appears to have abated," said Lynn Franco of the Conference Board.

• The big event of the day was without a doubt Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to the Senate Banking Committee.  Bernanke continued to defend ultra-easy monetary policy, as many expected. 

• But things got heated during the Q&A.  Senator Bob Corker prefaced a question about perception by talking about regulatory capture, suggesting that the Fed was in the pockets of the banks. "None of the things you've said is accurate," said Bernanke at one point.