First the scoreboard:
Dow: 13,610, +34.7, +0.2 percent
S&P 500: 1,460, -0.4, -0.0 percent
NASDAQ: 3,136, -13.2, -0.4 percent
And now the top stories:
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics released one of the most polictically important jobs reports in a long time today. And it was controversial.
- According to the BLS, U.S. companies added 114k nonfarm payrolls in September, which was essentially right in line with economists' estimates. However, private payrolls grew by just 104k, which was significantly below the expectations for +130k.
- The unemployment rate stunned everyone by dropping to 7.8 percent from 8.1 percent in August. At the same time, the labor force participation rate climbed to 63.6 percent from 63.5 percent a month ago. Minutes after this number was published, former GE CEO Jack Welch smelled conspiracy and tweeted, "Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers." Welch wasn't alone.
- Overall, experts agreed that the move was statistically unusual but not a conspiracy. From Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius: "The most eye-catching part of this report is the 0.3-point drop in the unemployment rate, to 7.8%. For the most part, this looks like a genuine move, as it comes alongside large increases in both the labor force (+418,000) and the tally of jobs in the survey of households (+873,000) of which 187,000 was due to government."
- It's worth mentioning that Hatzius' colleague David Kostin unveiled Goldman's 2013 target for the S&P 500 this morning. Kostin sees the S&P surging to 1,575 by the end of 2013, only after plunging to 1,250 by the end of this year.
- Late in the trading session, the Federal Reserve published its August consumer credit data, and it was a monster. New consumer credit surged $18.12 billion, which was way ahead of economists estimate for $7.25 billion. This suggests that increasingly confident consumers are going shopping again in a big way.
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