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2014年8月27日星期三

STOCKS GO NOWHERE AND GLOBAL YIELDS TUMBLE: Here’s What You Need To Know

michael jackson
REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon
Zhang Guanhui, impersonating Michael Jackson, dances in front of his house located in a village for migrant workers during an interview with Reuters in Beijing.
Stocks didn’t do much, but they remain near all-time highs. The bond markets, however, made some notable moves.
First, the scoreboard:
  • Dow: 17,114.3, +7.6, (+0.0%)
  • S&P 500: 1,998.9, -1.1, (-0.0%)
  • Nasdaq: 4,566.4, -4.2, (-0.0%)
And now, the top stories on Monday:
1. Today was one of those not-so-exciting days. There wasn’t much volatility, and there were no major economic reports released to move markets in a major way.
2. Interest rates around the world continued to make their way lower. According to Bloomberg, the yield on the German 10-year bond fell to a record low of 0.909%. Spain’s 10-year yield fell to 2.083%.  “Rates on similar-maturity Austrian, Belgian, Dutch, Finnish, Irish and Italian debt also fell to all-time lows,” reported Bloomberg’s David Goodman and Lukanyo Mnyanda.
3. Earlier Wednesday, we learned that Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence index fell to 8.6 from 8.9 a month ago, and France’s INSEE business confidence index fell to 91 from 93. Both were worse than economists’ already pessimistic expectations. All of this follows a series of disappointing economic reports from the region, which have economists and bond traders increasingly convinced that the European Central Bank will make moves to ease monetary policy further.
4. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell to as low as 3.11%, the lowest level since May 2013.

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U.S. stocks ended little moved on Wednesday as Wall Street caught its breath, with the S&P 500 closing at a record just above 2,000 for a second consecutive session.
"We had a big move yesterday; these big, round numbers have a psychological impact on investors, who are taking a pause as opposed to going significantly one way or the other," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.
"We're flirting with the milestone 2,000 on the S&P 500, and there is a lack of any catalyst to jar prices above that level," Luschini added.
Symbol
Name
Price
 
Change
%Change
DJIADow Jones Industrial Average17122.01
 
15.310.09%
S&P 500S&P 500 Index2000.12
 
0.100%
NASDAQNasdaq Composite Index4569.62
 
-1.02-0.02%
After a session of fluctuating between modest gains and declines, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 15.31 points, or less than 0.1 percent, at 17,122.01.
Finishing at a record just above the 2,000 milestone for a second day, the S&P 500 added a fraction to 2,000.12, with utilities the best performing of its 10 major sectors.

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York.
Getty Images
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York.

On Tuesday, stocks gained, lifting the Dow to an all-time high and the S&P 500 to its first finish above 2,000, after better-than-expected reports -- including a jump in orders for durable goods -- cast favorable light on the U.S. economy.

Government Bond Yields Around The World Are Making New Lows Day In And Day Out


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Government borrowing rates continue to tumble around the world.
“Global bond yields have taken over the entire financial chatter this morning,” Brean Capital’s Peter Tchir said earlier today.
According to Bloomberg, the yield on the German 10-year bund fell to a record low of 0.909%. Spain’s 10-year yield fell to 2.083%.
“Rates on similar-maturity Austrian, Belgian, Dutch, Finnish, Irish and Italian debt also fell to all-time lows,” reported Bloomberg’s David Goodman and Lukanyo Mnyanda.
“Not only are yields still making new lows day in and day out, but now some spreads to Bunds are also making new lows,” said Societe Generale’s Vincent Chaigneau. “The rally over the past few weeks was easy to call, given that the catch-up on Bund yields was well deserved after several silly scares on peripherals (euro elections, BES etc.). But now we are in new territory, as spreads return to lows last seen in 2009-2010 in some cases. Our view though remains for the buy momentum to continue.”
When bond yields fall, bond prices are going up.
“We stand ready to adjust our policy stance further,” said Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB).
Draghi made this statement on Friday at the Kansas City Fed’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. His speech came after the eurozone economies reported a string of of disappoint reports suggesting that growth had stalled and prices were falling.
Based on recent moves in interest rates, it appears bond traders are betting more monetary stimulus is coming.
“Draghi, who has often been able to get away with just words probably needs to act this time, as the move in the past week has been extreme and seems like it will require real action,” Tchir said.
Earlier Wednesday, we learned that Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence index fell to 8.6 from 8.9 a month ago, and France’s INSEE business confidence index fell to 91 from 93. Both were worse than economists’ already pessimistic expectations.
“More misery from leading indicators in France,” said Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Claus Vistesen. “Even on the back of two quarters of stagnation in France, we don’t see much evidence of a pick up in the current quarter. Based on values for July and August, the manufacturing survey is now down a depressing 2.5% q/q in the third quarter, consistent with another disappointing GDP print. “
What’s interesting is that U.S. Treasury yields, while low at 2.36%, continue to be much higher than yields in other parts of the developed world. In other words, those European bonds actually make U.S. bonds look cheap, meaning that yields have room to go lower.
Earlier this month, DoubleLine Funds’ Jeffrey Gundlach told Business Insider that we could see U.S. Treasury yields rise if European yields were to rally. However, he reminded us that the European economy continues to be in much worse shape.
If anything, Europe is on the brink of deflation, which means rates could actually go lower.