relax: 十一月 2011

2011年11月30日星期三

昨天被惊吓了，奖励自己一杯，平复下精进。

Thursday, 1 Dec 2011. MAS – Stock Pick

MAS ( 3785 : 1.40 ) : Targeting 1.59
Description
Resistance : 1.59 1.67
Support : 1.32
RSI of 53
RSI is recovering
STOCHASTIC
It is on an up swing
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The sharp upkick yesterday is likely to spillover, to target the 50% retracement of 1.59
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 1.32

Thursday, 1 Dec 2011. TENAGA – Stock Pick

TENAGA ( 5347 : 5.65 ) : Targeting 5.84
Description
Resistance : 5.74 5.84
Support : 5.39
RSI of 48
RSI has started to recover
STOCHASTIC
It is oversold
TREND INDICATOR
Down
Comment
The recent correction has bottomed at the Double bottom of 5.34, indicating a rebound to 5.74, and possibly
5.84
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 5.39

Thursday, 1 Dec 2011. AWC – Stock Pick

AWC ( 7579 : 0.27 ) : Targeting 0.34
Description
Engineering services
Resistance : 0.30 0.34
Support : 0.255
RSI of 61
RSI is rising
STOCHASTIC
It is on an up swing
TREND INDICATOR
Up
Comment
The sharp upkick yesterday is likely to spillover, to target 0.34
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.25

Thursday, 1 Dec 2011. VERSATL – Stock Pick

VERSATL ( 4995 : 0.37 ) : Targeting 0.42
Description
Containers and packaging
Resistance : 0.42
Support : 0.30
RSI of 86
RSI is overbought
STOCHASTIC
It is on an up swing
TREND INDICATOR
Up
Comment
The sharp upkick yesterday is likely to spillover, to target 0.42. A stop loss should be placed at the price gap
of 0.30
Trading Strategy
Buy. Stop loss is at 0.30

Bursa Malaysia Trade Statistics – 30 November 2011

Bursa Malaysia Trade Statistics – 30 November 2011
Participation Bought Sold Net
% RMm RMm RMm
Local Insts 31.0 458.0 796.3 -338.3
Local Retail 21.5 352.5 517.3 -164.8
Foreign 47.5 1213.8 710.7 503.1
100.0 2024.3 2024.3 0.0
Source: Bursa Malaysia

( Total value continue to be greater than total volume, big cap or index counters were in focus as Foreign Fund participation had raised to 47 % )

Eng Kah Corp +0.3%; Kenanga Keeps At Buy

Eng Kah Corp. (7149.KU) is up 0.3% at MYR3.18; this despite the company saying 3Q net profit fell to MYR2.96 million from MYR3.51 million.

Kenanga Research says, despite a lower 3Q net profit, the company's nine-month net profit is still in-line with expectations. "We continue to like Eng Kah for its growth story as it rides on the expansion and growing demand from its multinational corporation customers," the house says.

It also expects 4Q results to be strong due to robust festive demand. The house also says the company offers an attractive dividend yield of 7.1%, and keeps a Buy rating with a price target of MYR3.82.

KSL +1.4%, Result Above View; RHB Ups Forecast

KSL Holdings (5038.KU) is up 1.4% at MYR1.40, outperforming the benchmark index, after reporting strong 3Q results; net profit rose 93% on-year to MYR30.0 million while revenue doubled to MYR81 million.

With a nine-month net profit of MYR72 million, the results came in slightly above analysts expectations, accounting for about 76% of consensus forecast for FY11.

RHB Research upgrades KSL to Market Perform from Underperform and lifts its target to MYR1.50 from MYR1.20 after raising FY11-FY13 earnings forecasts by 23%-33%.

The house says underlying regulatory risk that had weighed on the sector has been lifted after the central bank issued guidelines to promote more prudent household lending recently. "The stronger recurring rental income should also provide KSL an additional buffer to withstand challenging economic conditions ahead," it says.

RHB Research Upgrades KPJ Healthcare To Outperform

RHB Research upgrades KPJ Healthcare (5878.KU) to Outperform from Market Perform, and raises its price target to MYR4.71 from MYR4.44 after revising its target FY12 P/E to 17.4X from 16.1X "in line with the recovery in the share prices of KPJ's regional peers."

The house says, its target P/E is based on a 10% discount to regional peers' average of 19.3X; "we think KPJ is currently trading at a relatively cheap valuation of 15.5X FY12 EPS in comparison to regional peers' average of 19.3X FY12 EPS." The stock is 0.7% higher at MYR4.21.

RHB Starts Multi-Purpose Holdings At Outperform

RHB Research starts Multi-Purpose Holdings (3859.KU) with an Outperform rating and a price target of MYR3.10, which implies P/E of 12.3X forecast CY12.

The house says it believes the company is a deep value stock at current prices; "at current market price, after deducting our estimated value of all of MPHB's other assets, we estimate that the market is pricing the gaming business at only 7X CY12."

The house says more rerating catalysts for the stock will be disposal of more of its non-core assets. It expects the company to deliver a 3-year earnings CAGR of 10.8%, with earnings driven by the gaming division, as well as lower interest expense after the partial repayment of its outstanding debt. The stock is up 0.8% at MYR2.59.

China's Move Kindles Emerging-Market Bulls

DJ OPTIONS REPORT:

--Traders focus on ETFs that track emerging-market stock ETF

--U.S. stocks rally after China's cut to its reserve-requirement ratio

--Options traders look for rise in Taiwan, Malaysia ETFs

(Updates with closing stock prices.)

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Traders in the options market made a series of bullish bets on emerging markets and Asia after China moved to give a shot in the arm to its economy, the world's second-largest.

The People's Bank of China said it would cut the reserve-requirement ratio for major banks for the first time since December 2008. Investors said the surprise policy action, which would free up lending, likely reflects a more-aggressive stance toward targeting economic growth.

The move came just hours before major central banks disclosed a joint agreement to reduce the cost for Europe's banks to receive dollar loans. Investors cheered the developments, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed Wednesday up 4.2%.

For emerging-market stocks, China's reserve-requirement ratio cut is "definitely a constructive sign," said Vijay Chopra, managing director of international equity at Mesirow Financial. "The government is changing its stance from tightening to loosening."

Among the U.S. options market's largest single trade was a bet that the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) exchange-traded fund can climb higher over the next several weeks.

A buyer picked up 50,000 call options that convey the right to buy shares of the ETF for $44 by Dec. 16, according to derivatives strategists at Susquehanna Financial Group. The ETF rose $2.35, or 6.2%, to close at $40.01. The contracts work best should shares jump 10% by expiration.

Separately, a trader bought a large block of $38-strike December EEM calls and also sold $44 calls that expire in the same month. The "spread" profits most should the ETF close at $44 over the next two and a half weeks.

EEM is made up of more than 800 global stocks, and its largest holdings include China Mobile Ltd. (CHL, 0941.HK) and Samsung Electronics Co. (SSNHY, 005930.SE).

Additionally, options traders, with unusual gusto, targeted ETFs that track Taiwanese and Malaysian stocks. Bullish positioning drove Wednesday's overall options volume in the iShares MSCI Taiwan Index Fund (EWT) to four times the daily average, according to data from Trade Alert.

One trader established a new position by purchasing roughly 15,000 January $13 call options. EWT rose 46 cents, or 3.9%, close at $12.35 Wednesday. The contracts turn a profit should the ETF gain about 7% and surpass $13.22 by the middle of January.

Meanwhile, in the iShares MSCI Malaysia Index Fund (EWM), traders targeted $14-strike calls that expire in December and January. Wednesday's call volume in the ETF was 15 times the daily average. Just 10 put options in the ETF traded compared with 15,000 calls.

Shares of EWM rose 79 cents, or 6%, to close Wednesday at $14.04.

Here Comes The Alibaba Bid To Buy All Of Yahoo

Matt Rosoff

Nov. 30, 2011

5:51 PM

An investment group led by Jack Ma's Alibaba is preparing to make a bid for all of Yahoo, according to Bloomberg, citing three people familiar with the matter.

Alibaba has gotten its financing in order to buy the whole company,. Blackstone and Bain are also in on the consortium. The group would prefer an invitation for a friendly bid rather than doing a hostile takeover.

Yahoo hasn't received the bid yet, though, and no word on the price.
Yahoo's stock jumped 4% after hours on the news.

Alibaba wants to reclaim the 40% share that Yahoo now owns in Alibaba. Ma has said several times recently that he's "very interested" in buying the company.

Yesterday, a consortium led by Silver Lake and Microsoft reportedly bid $16.60 per share for a minority stake in the company, and TPG Capital came in with a

The European Death Spiral In One Simple Chart

Joe Weisenthal

Nov. 30, 2011

1:52 PM

From Goldman's Jan Hatzius...

Image: Goldman Sachs

全球观察:亟待评估自贸协定利弊·许国平

尽管技术统治论者已经掌管了处于最近危机中心的希腊和意大利的顶级政治要位，但欧洲金融危机似乎并没有缓和。

如果说有什么区别的话，危机似乎更糟糕，上周法国和德国出现了债券投资利率下降的信号。

这证实全球经济减速或衰退的预期不断增大。最近几天，有报道说出现资本为寻求安全从新兴国家流出最初信号，担心信贷危机可能扩大到发展中国家。

一些显要的发展中国家正出现货币快速走弱的情况。南非兰特对美元的汇率从四个月前的6.7兰特对1美元，贬值到了现在的8.5。

检讨经济政策

全球的情况正在促使发展中国家重新思考他们的一系列经济政策。这包括需要调节资本流动，防止过多的波动对其资本市场和和货币带来巨大破坏，需要促进内需和国内公司的发展来抵消出口减少。

巴西、南非、中国及其它一些国家正在引入或恢复传统上曾经使用过，用来支持当地企业和国内经济的措施。

他们还恢复或加强了包含了整个经济的发展计划，是旧模式工业政策的扩大版。11月11日，南非启动了国家发展计划，巴西已经引入了三个版本的发展生产力计划，中国最近通过了最新的五年发展计划。马来西亚有自己的五年发展计划和经济转型计划。

但是，一些发展中国家也出现了一些反倾向，介入了与发达国家，尤其是与美国和欧盟的自由贸易协定谈判。

例子包括美国与8个其它国家之间的跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定（其规则主要以美国自由贸易协定为基础），以及欧盟与非洲国家、印度、东盟之间的自由贸易协定等。

降低关税近零

或许，促进这些国家进行谈判的动力是增加到美国和欧洲的市场准入，并期望欧美投资者能更愿意进入。

与这些好处相反的则包括“政策空间”减少或者说采取传统用来促进当地企业和国内经济的广泛措施，或保护资本投机流动的能力减弱。

这引起了诸多关注。鉴于全球危机，促进当地经济和管理波动资本流动的目标应给予更高的优先性，但是需要的政策措施却被这些自由贸易协定所禁止或阻碍。

由于美国和欧盟在自由贸易协定议程中不希望减少其农业补贴（其主要的贸易扭曲），因此商品出口方面的收获十分有限。

纺织方面，出口商对于美国自由贸易协定中的“纱推进规则”有困难，根据这个规则，只有从其伙伴国家买纱才可享受贸易互惠。

与此同时发展中国家伙伴却不得不降低几乎所有的关税到零或接近零，从而把其国内公司置于与廉价的进口商品竞争的境地。那些受影响的公司收入将减少，市场份额将减少，或者会倒闭。

限制开放产业

自由贸易协定中的服务章节责成发展中国家开放其整个服务业与自由贸易协定的伙伴竞争。而在WTO中，各国可以列出其限制开放的产业。

与此形成对比的是，美国自由贸易协定中有一个“否定清单”方法，根据这一方法，除非明确列为例外，否则所有产业都注定要开放。
因此，还没有存在的未来的服务也被承诺（比如，互联网或某些类型的金融服务在几十年前甚至还不存在）。

投资章节有重大的影响。有承诺允许各种类型的资本自由流动。这对控制资本流入和流出是一个障碍，阻碍了金融权威机构预防或管理金融波动性和不稳定性的能力。 .

它还责成各国大幅放松国内屏蔽外国公司进入，或者为其建立设置条件的法律和制度，比如公司类型（分公司、与当地公司合作、合资等）以及允许的实体程度等。

由于经营要求被禁止，这影响了为外国公司设立制定条件的能力，比如管理（如雇佣当地人）或技术转让。

分析成本收益

美国自由贸易协定还包括了一个十分严厉的投资者与国家争端系统。

在这个系统中，外国公司可以起诉东道国“征用”，其定义通常包括“间接征用”或者如果政策或措施改变带来的未来利益损失。

很多发展中国家在被自由贸易协定规定的国际法庭起诉后已经被迫支付大笔赔偿。

特权被剥夺

采购的章节迫使政府向自由贸易协定伙伴国家开放其商品、服务以及发展项目的采购。

正常给予本地公司优于外国公司供应商品或获得建设工作和发展项目合同的特权将严格被剥夺。

“竞争”章节也把主要的限制放在给当地公司特惠和支持上，剥夺了政府拥有或与政府有关联的企业运行的规则。事实上，自由贸易协定的一大目标就是阻止与国家有关联的公司的范围与运行，以便可以向外国公司开放机会。

知识产权章节迫使发展中国家履行WTO TRIPS协定已有的之限制政策的规定以外的义务。

药品价高涨

自由贸易协定的限制是如此之多，以至于基因药物的生产商和进口商将发现更难运行或生存，结果药品价格将上涨，在一些情况下将超出患者的支付能力。
开放和竞争可能会有一些好处，这也是为什么很多发展中国家开始去管制和私有化。
但是，这通常需在让当地公司和国内经济受益，同时提高消费者的效率和利益的情况下进行。
但是在美国和欧盟自由贸易模式中变为义务的开放、去管制和向全球金融与商品市场开放的极端形式很可能会制造很多麻烦。
在当前的经济危机情况下，当各国不得不敏捷地查看形成未来战略的多种选择时，对他们来说获得使用各种政策措施的自由是非常重要的。
另一方面，一个加入自由贸易协定或跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定的国家预计将享受商品出口以外的好处，因为其公司也可以到国外投资，得到更高级别的投资者保护。
因此很重要的一点是进行成本收益分析，而不仅仅是贸易和经济方面的分析，但是也有社会和政治方面的分析，因为自由贸易协定对其社会经济结构和这些国家的根本政治理解将有影响。
结果远远超出了贸易和投资。

许国平南方中心总执行长

幸馬泰（SUMATEC ) 和哈林沙轄分享哈薩克油田合約

幸馬泰資源（SUMATEC，1201，主板貿服組）與丹斯里哈林沙轄名下的Markmore能源（納閩）有限公司簽署架構協議，以分享生產在哈薩克Shelly油田的碳化氫的合約。

該公司發文告指出，Markmore能源旗下子公司Caspi Oil Gas有限責任公司（COG）早在2000年獲哈薩克政府頒發Shelly油田的特許經營權，經營權時效為25年。

經礦業調查顧問SRP顧問私人有限公司調查，上述油田擁有122.3萬桶碳化氫庫存、3千300萬桶原油以及8千930萬桶天然氣庫存，分享合約所注名的成果分享比例為50：50。

“生產分享合約（PSC）是公司重組計劃下的其中一環，包括強化公司財務情況，重組資產負債表，注如新資金以及解決債務問題。”

文告也提及，公司目前正致力完成重組計劃，希望儘早擺脫PN17行列。（星洲財經）

標普降15銀行信評

基于全面修訂評級標準，國際評級機構標準普爾（簡稱標普，S&P）宣佈調降15家大型金融機構的信用評級，並以歐美重量級銀行為主。

　綜合外電報導，標普宣佈全球前37大銀行適用新評級標準后的信評調整結果，其中20家銀行信評維持不變、2家獲調升、15家遭調降。
信評遭調降一級的大型金融機構包括摩根大通、美國銀行、花旗集團、富國銀行、高盛集團、摩根士丹利、巴克萊銀行、匯豐控股、瑞士銀行等知名銀行。
標普也更新37家大型銀行旗下數十家子公司的評等。
雖然標普早在1年多前就警告，將以新評級標準調整銀行信評，但這項調整結果的出爐適逢銀行債券市場相當脆弱之際，造成的衝擊勢必放大。

穿梭美日大型商場谷歌提供全新線上地圖

谷歌（Google）在美國和日本推出全新的免費線上地圖服務，幫助用戶在機場、轉運站、大型商場等室內場所穿梭自如。

　“中央社”報導，最新版Android智能手機軟體“谷歌地圖”（Google Maps）已開通，用戶可從地圖藍點找到自己所在位置，還有數公尺內的樓層平面圖。
該公司地球暨地圖部門工程副總裁麥克蘭登指出，Android裝置的地圖軟體，可讓用戶搞清楚在室內的所在位置，還有想去的地點。

　加州的網絡巨擘谷歌與大型零售業者、機場和轉運站合作推出室內地圖功能，並計劃持續新增全世界公共建築樓層平面圖。

南歐失業青年多大批湧入德國找工

南歐國家的年輕人面對嚴重失業問題，儘管語言不通，近幾個月，大批年輕人仍湧入德國找工作。

　德國其實仍需包括工程師、電腦軟體程式設計師、醫護人員及市場開發人員等專業人才，促使不少西班牙、希臘、意大利和葡萄牙的失業年輕人想到德國碰碰運氣。
根據德國聯邦外籍專業人士工作仲介機構資料，最近登記申請工作的西班牙年輕人就有1萬4000多人。
不諳德語求職碰壁
歐盟國家中以西班牙年輕人失業率最高，超過40%，估計500萬失業人口當中，有一半是25歲以下的年輕人。
許多到德國找工作的南歐青年擁有醫護或是工程方面的專業，只是不諳德語，所以在求職時仍會碰壁。
即使到德國學校附設的語文班上速成課程，初級班7個星期的語文課也要繳約300歐元（約1274令吉）學費，多數來找工作的南歐青年連這筆費用都無法負擔。
根據經濟合作暨發展組織（OECD）15歲到24歲年輕人失業的最新資料，西班牙的失業率是41.6%、希臘32.9%、意大利27.9%、葡萄牙22.3%，德國僅9.7%。

面子書持股24% 朱克伯格身價料759億

面子書（Facebook）傳出計劃明年次季上市，市值有望突破1000億美元（約3164億令吉），創辦人兼總執行長朱克伯格身價將隨之增至240億美元（約759億令吉）。

　《華爾街日報》報導，計劃上市的面子書市值若達到至少1000億美元，根據朱克伯格擁有面子書約24%股權計算，他將擁有240億美元的身價。
據《福布斯》雜誌（Forbes）估計，朱克伯格的財富將落后于微軟主席蓋茲和甲骨文（Oracle）總執行長艾里森，卻比谷歌（Google）共同創辦人佩吉和布林富有。
面子書尚未揭露大股東的持股情況，但遞交首發股資料時便能知曉。
現在矽谷人人都在悄悄計算，面子書掛牌后自己會變得多富有。
已離開面子書的共同創辦人莫斯科維茨（Dustin Moskovitz）和沙弗林（Eduardo Saverin）各擁有6%和5%股權。
曾任早期主管的帕克有4%股份，投資者席爾（Peter Thiel ）則持股3%。

美股大漲415點全球6大央行消息利好

美國股市週三早盤大幅攀升，3大股指漲幅均超過3%。美聯儲聯手其他五家央行向遭受歐債危機打擊的銀行提供流動性支持；中國央行下調存准率以促進經濟增長。

　美東時間週三上午10時12（大馬時間週三晚11時12分），道瓊斯工業平均指數上漲380.73點，報11，936.36點，漲幅為3.29%；納斯達克綜合指數上漲75.39點，報2590.90點，漲幅為3.00%；標準普爾500指數上漲37.76點，報1232.95點，漲幅為3.16%。週三盤中道指最高曾上漲超過415點。
美聯儲週三宣佈，週三與英國央行及歐央行等5家央行達成一致，將下調美元流動性互換利率0.5%，並將互換協議延長至2013年2月1日。
此前中國下調存款準備金利率的消息已經推動美股期指攀升。中國央行週三宣佈，將下調國內銀行業存款準備金率50個基點以促進國內經濟增長。

歐債危機　引爆全球銀根緊縮

《紐約時報》報導，受歐債危機影響，歐洲銀行抽緊銀根，導致企業借不到錢，從柏林到北京的全球各行各業都感到信用緊縮的壓力，全球經濟瀕臨衰退。

各行均受緊縮銀根
報導說，不論是航空公司、運輸業和小製造商，都受到歐洲銀行為保留現金，緊縮銀根的壓力。
歐洲銀行由於持有大量意大利、西班牙等負債國家的公債，被投資人視為全球金融體系脆弱的一環。美國貨幣市場基金已停止借錢給歐洲銀行，迫使歐洲銀行提高放款標準，甚至對長期客戶抽銀根。
更糟的是，歐洲金融主管當局要求銀行提高放款準備金，迫使銀行降低貸款額度。分析師說，歐洲銀行未來幾年可能砍掉3兆歐元貸款，相當於銀行總資產的1/10。
法航採購飛機的款項，有15%向法國巴黎銀行和興業銀行融資，現在這些銀行抽法航的銀根，法航只好轉向日本和中國銀行貸款。

調低GDP增長預測　泰央行減息0.25%

泰國央行將關鍵利率下調0.25%，基準回購利率由3.5%，降至3.25%。央行稱，洪災將導致泰國2011年GDP增速下降2.1%，若經濟狀況需要將進一步下調利率。

泰國央行以5:2的票數通過利率決定，其中兩名委員希望降息50個基點。泰國央行稱，降息將有助於應對洪災，提振信心。
泰國央行同時將對今年該國GDP增長預期，從2.6%下調至1.8%。此前市場預測泰國央行將會降息50個基點至3%，但泰國央行降息幅度小於預期。
除了泰國，本周將有巴西和菲律賓等數個新興經濟體央行召開貨幣政策會議。
分析人士稱，儘管部份亞洲新興經濟體仍因通脹高企而保持觀望姿態，但是新興經濟體貨幣立場的「再寬鬆」已成為定局。歐債危機和美國經濟復甦乏力，導致外需疲軟、外資逆流和金融市場動盪，是新興經濟體進一步放寬貨幣政策的主要原因。

　泰央行減息0.25%

索羅斯斥資1.5億　認購周大福IPO

香港《明報》週三報導稱，香港珠寶商周大福首次公開發售股份（IPO）除獲得恆地主席李兆基和華置主席劉鑾雄支持外，金融大鱷索羅斯亦有參與認購，金額不少於5000萬美元（1億5897萬令吉）。

報導援引消息人士稱，索羅斯在前日周大福首日路演已敲定參與認購，而且「買入數額一定不會少」。由於說明會仍在進行，不排除進一步「加碼」認購。
周大福是次IPO將發行10.5億股股份，相當於上市後股本10.5%，招股區間定在每股15至21港元，預計最多可籌集28.3億美元。
該股份預計12月8日定價，15日在聯交所掛牌上市。
報導稱，索羅斯近年曾與不少新股接洽認購，但由於基金規模較大，故只會認購集資規模較大的新股，比如其認購的龍湖地產、四環醫藥、正通汽車等。

11月普遍下跌　馬股12月料掀漲潮

歐美經濟持續不明朗的局勢，依舊主導11月馬股及區域股市的下跌走勢。儘管如此，市場人士仍相信，來臨的2011年最後一個月，在櫥窗粉飾的效應下，馬股將呈現良好的上升勢頭。

至於11月的最後一個交易日，區域股市表現起落參半。富時大馬綜合指數上漲27.38點或1.9%，收在1472.10點；泰國曼谷指數攀升7.27點或0.74%，收在995.33點；印尼雅加達指數上漲27.31點或0.74%，閉市報3715.08點；而新加坡海峽指數上漲14.36點或0.53%，閉市報2702.46點。其餘股市則以跌勢掛收。
回顧11月份的表現，區域股市中僅有泰國曼谷指數按月攀漲2.11%，其他股市皆呈現跌勢。其中跌幅最大的有香港恆生指數，共下跌9.44%；隨後則是台灣加權指數和日經225指數，分別下跌9.01%及6.16%。
另外，上海證券指數、新加坡海峽指數和首爾綜合指數，亦各別下跌5.46%、5.37%和3.22%。
至於跌幅較低的則是馬尼拉股票指數和印尼雅加達指數，分別下跌2.83%及2%；而富時綜指屬區域股市內跌幅最低的指數，達1.33%。
總結11月份的馬股走勢，大馬抽佣經紀協會主席黃峋理認為，馬股的成交量相當穩健，平均維持在15億至20億股左右。「同時，二三線股的賺幅平均皆超過一倍以上，預計散戶在11月間已從中獲利。」
聯昌國際投行研究主管黃大任則指出，馬股11月普遍處於下跌局勢，但將從這波動較大的格局中找尋支撐點。
同時，他表示，歐美不明朗局勢，亦拖累馬股的整體走勢。
仙股熱潮冷卻
與此同時，11月初馬股出現仙股被熱捧的趨勢，但這股趨勢近期已逐漸冷卻，其中最熱門的仙股，即豐升工業（HARVEST，9342，主板工業股）亦被大馬交易所列為「指定股項」，而從高峰大幅下跌。儘管如此，黃峋理認為，該股的「指定股項」限令一旦被解除，依然可為馬股製造新一波流通量。
至於12月份的走勢，市場人士相信，隨著股市已恢復健康水平，預計馬股或出現大漲的局勢。
黃大任認為，12月一般上是一年內表現最好的月份，且相信將在12月中或12月杪市場將進行「櫥窗粉飾」活動。
倘若歐美國家的經濟局勢持穩，預計馬股將有強勁的成長格局。黃大任預計馬股年杪將收在1490點的水平。
此外，黃峋理則透露，大選及農曆新年將近的因素，有助馬股在12月呈現上漲的趨勢。
對於2012年的走勢，黃峋理表示，市場的資金流動強勁，但基於這些資金相對鬆動且無目標，因此無法預計資金會否流向股市，而帶動股市走高。
然而，他相信馬股將呈現良好的走勢，並建議散戶在合適的時機提早進場，以從中獲益。
黃大任則預計馬股將在2012年杪攀升至1570點的水平。
此外，他表示，備受看好的領域有油氣領域、建築領域和產業領域。至於電訊領域的表現則較趨向保守型。

STOCKS EXPLODE HIGHER AFTER LATEST ATTEMPT TO SAVE THE WORLD: Here's What You Need To Know

Sam Ro

Nov. 30, 2011

4:00 PM

Central banks around the world to the rescue?
First, the scoreboard:
Dow: +490.1 pts, +4.2%
S&P 500: +51.7 pts, +4.3%
NASDAQ: +104.8 pts, +4.2%
And now, the top stories:

Global coordinated intervention. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, and the Swiss National Bank announced they would lower the cost of swapping dollars. Specifically, they are cutting the U.S. dollar liquidity swap rate by 50 basis points. This is an effort to boost liquidity in the European bank funding markets. The announcement, which came before the markets opened, caused futures to roar higher.

In case that wasn't enough, the Fed also reminded us that it could still do much more: "[W]ere conditions to deteriorate, the Federal Reserve has a range of tools available to provide an effective liquidity backstop for such institutions and is prepared to use these tools as needed to support financial stability and to promote the extension of credit to U.S. households and businesses."

In other market moving central bank actions, the People's Bank of China cut its reserve ratio requirement for banks by 50 basis points. In other words, the PBOC reduced the amount of money banks have to keep on hand, which should encourage more lending activity. This move is likely to appease those fearing a hard landing for the slowing Chinese economy.

U.S. financials were among the big winners today. This despite last night's S&P ratings cuts, which included Bank of America (+7.3%), Citigroup (+8.9%), and Morgan Stanley (+11.1%). S&P also cut Wells Fargo (+7.4%) and Goldman Sachs (+7.9%) and slapped negative outlooks on the two banks.

Metals were also among the major movers today. Gold jumped 2% and copper soared 6%. Mining stocks were big winners today. Rio Tinto and Freeport McMoran jumped 9.2% and 8.6%, respectively.

The U.S. saw three pieces of good economic data this morning. According to ADP, companies added 206k private payrolls in November, crushing economists estimate of 130k. This is encouraging ahead of Friday's big BLS jobs numbers

The Chicago PMI came in at 62.6, beating the estimate of 58.5. October pending home sales jumped 10.4%, smashing the estimate of of 2.0%.

The Fed Beige Book of economic anecdotes was released this afternoon. It showed 11 of 12 Fed districts were showing slow to moderate growth. The only exception was the St. Louis district, which includes parts of Arkansas, Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi.

There were few losers in the stock markets today. Netflix was the biggest loser in the S&P 500, falling 4.5%.

Market Breaking News 30/11/11

1.Central Banks Make Coordinated Move to Address Pressures in Global Money Markets

2.ADP Private Sector Jobs Rose 206,000.
3. Third-Quarter Productivity Revised Downward, Now Up 2.3% During the 3Q.

4. Contracts to Buy Existing Homes Surge in October at a Quicker-than-Expected Pace

5. Mortgage Applications Fell 11.7 Percent in Week Ended Nov. 25.

6. Stocks soared at the open Wednesday following news global central banks announced coordinated actions to enhance their capacity to provide liquidity to financial systems and after China said it would loosen monetary policy by cutting banks' reserve requirements.

All 30 Dow components jumped, led by BofA and JPMorgan.

7. 3.Stocks extended their sharp gains across the board Wednesday after global central banks announced a coordinated plan to support the global financial system and following a handful of better-than-expected economic news.

The Dow is back in positive territory for 2011.

8. Stocks traded near highs Wednesday after global central banks announced a coordinated plan to support the global financial system, a handful of better-than-expected economic news and China said it would loosen monetary policy.
The Dow and S&P are on track to post their best weekly point gains in almost three years.
All 10 S&P sectors were firmly in positive territory led by materials and industrials.

9. US economic activity increased at a slow to moderate pace in most regions, according to the Fed's beige-book report for November. The one exception was the St. Louis area.

10. Stocks rallied sharply to finish at their best levels Wednesday after global central banks announced a plan to support the global financial system, a handful of better-than-expected economic reports and China said it would loosen monetary policy.

All 30 Dow components finished higher, led by JPMorgan and Caterpillar. The blue-chip index is back in the black for 2011.

MARKETS SURGE AS FED/ECB/BOJ/BOE/SNB/BOC ANNOUNCE COORDINATED INTERVENTION

Joe Weisenthal

Nov. 30, 2011

8:01 AM

Image: Air Force

All the world's central banks have just announced a big coordinated intervention to lower swap rates.

What does that mean?

Basically this: European banks have been parched for liquidity, and need access to dollars. The ECB can't supply them dollars unless it borrows them from the Fed.

Essentially today's action makes it easier for the ECB and thus European banks to borrow dollars.
It's not a solution to the euro crisis by any means; it just means that the most acute liquidity problems will be mitigated for now.
The market is loving the news.
US markets had been down by 0.5% at one point this morning, but now futures are pointing to a 3% gain. Dow futures are up 2.83%.
Note that there are some other bullish things going on today. China lowered its Reserve Requirement Ratio also this morning, and we got a strong ADP jobs report.
So, lots of bullish action going on.
Here's the full announcement from the ECB.
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30 November 2011 - Coordinated central bank action  to address pressures in global money markets

The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing coordinated actions to enhance their capacity to provide liquidity support to the global financial system. The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity.

These central banks have agreed to lower the pricing on the existing temporary US dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points so that the new rate will be the US dollar Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rate plus 50 basis points. This pricing will be applied to all operations conducted from 5 December 2011. The authorisation of these swap arrangements has been extended to 1 February 2013. In addition, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank will continue to offer three-month tenders until further notice.

As a contingency measure, these central banks have also agreed to establish temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements so that liquidity can be provided in each jurisdiction in any of their currencies should market conditions so warrant. At present, there is no need to offer liquidity in non-domestic currencies other than the US dollar, but the central banks judge it prudent to make the necessary arrangements so that liquidity support operations could be put into place quickly should the need arise. These swap lines are authorised through 1 February 2013.

European Central Bank Decision
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided in co-operation with other central banks the establishment of a temporary network of reciprocal swap lines. This action will enable the Eurosystem to provide euro to those central banks when required, as well as enabling the Eurosystem to provide liquidity operations, should they be needed, in Japanese yen, sterling, Swiss francs and Canadian dollars (in addition to the existing operations in US dollars).
The ECB will regularly conduct US dollar liquidity-providing operations with a maturity of approximately one week and three months at the new pricing. The schedule for these operations, which will take the form of repurchase operations against eligible collateral and will be carried out as fixed-rate tender procedures with full allotment, will be published today on the ECB’s website.
In addition, the initial margin for three-month US dollar operations will be reduced from currently 20% to 12% and weekly updates of the EUR/USD exchange rate will be introduced in order to carry out margin calls. Those changes will be effective as of the operations to be conducted on 7 December 2011. Further details about the operations will be made available in the respective modified tender procedure via the ECB’s Website.

股價異常波動　蔚世泰 ( VERSATL ) 遭交易所詢問

由於蔚世泰公司（VERSATL，4995，主板工業股）今天的股價異常波動，因此接獲大馬交易所發出不尋常交易活動（UMA）詢問。

蔚世泰公司週三的股價與成交量均大幅攀高，成為全場第4大熱門股。該股以0.375令吉掛收，揚升27.12%或8仙。

蔚世泰公司全天處於漲勢，早盤以0.33令吉開市後，雖一度稍微收窄至全天最低的0.32令吉；但午盤的走勢相當凌厲，一度登上全天最高的0.43令吉。

該股全天共有5289萬9200股易手，遠超週二的1471萬9700股。

市場傳言蔚世泰公司的股價急漲27%，可能是因為該公司即將出現大股東變動。根據現有的股權架構，Versatile Credit & Leasing公司是蔚世泰公司的最大單一股東，持有20.64%股權。

MORGAN STANLEY: This Is What The US Economy Will Be Like In 2012 And 2013

Sam Ro

Nov. 28, 2011

10:45 AM

Image: Flickr

As 2011 comes to a close, Wall Street analysts are slowly unveiling their forecasts for 2012.

Morgan Stanley's Global Economics Team led by Joachim Fels just released their updated global economic outlook for 2012 and 2013.

Included in the report is their forecast for the U.S. economy.

"Our U.S. base case remains anaemic growth of just over 2% next year, but this crucially depends on our assumption that Congress will extend most of this year’s fiscal stimulus into next year," wrote the analysts.

Morgan Stanley's base case is the Fed will embark on QE3 by spring of 2012.

The report provides a detailed break-down of base, bear, and bull case scenarios for the U.S. economy.