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Credit Suisse tips Malaysia and Indonesia
to be the biggest losers, in trade and inflation terms, of commodity price
changes in Asia ex-Japan.
The house says negative commodity price effects will
aggravate Indonesia's widening trade deficit "which in turn mainly reflects
strong import demand, as well as weak global demand for its exports.
" But the
recent fall in oil prices should help keep investment growth resilient;
"together with the interest rate cut earlier this year, we think investment
growth will stay strong, boosting import demand," it says.
In Malaysia, CS
forecasts weak palm oil prices to negatively hit private consumption growth,
while "the fall in oil prices subtracts from fiscal revenues (oil-related
revenues account for about 34% of the government's total revenues)." However, it
expects a number of pre-election cash handouts and other fiscal "pump-priming"
to help mitigate some of the fallout from commodity price moves.
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