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The world's third biggest brewer has to decide whether to raise its bid or risk losing control of one of Asia's fastest growing brewers to the family of Thailand's second richest man.
Heineken agreed to buy stakes in the Asian brewer held by Singapore conglomerate Fraser and Neave (F&N) last Friday, only for the Thai group to now muscle in on the deal with a higher price for F&N's 7.3pc direct stake.
Kindest Place Groups, a vehicle owned by Charoen's son-in-law, made a surprise offer of S$55 a share to buy F&N's direct stake in APB, S$5 a share more than Heineken agreed to pay in its deal announced last week. F&N controls around 40pc of APB, mostly via a joint venture with Heineken.
The Thai companies, ThaiBev and Kindest Place, had already put Heineken on the back foot last month when they paid $3bn (£1.9bn) to take stakes in F&N and APB.
Heineken, which controls 42pc of APB, agreed to pay F&N S$50 a share for its APB stake which values it at S$5.1bn (£1.5bn). The Heineken deal is worth around $6bn if a buyout of minority shareholders is included.
Heineken's APB bid is already at a rich multiple of 17.4 times (EBITDA) core profits, above the 15.4 times paid by Anheuser Busch InBev for Mexico's Modelo in June.
The Amsterdam-based brewer put a brave face on the situation saying its bid was better than the Thai offer.
"We are convinced that our bid is richer and offers more value to shareholders," a Heineken spokesman told Reuters.
Heineken shares fell to close 2.4pc lower at €44.38 on worries about the prospect of a bidding war with the powerful Thai business family, which could be pushing to control APB or just extract a higher price for its stake.
"With this latest turn of events, Heineken's current offer will fail. It will have to offer more than S$55 per share to outbid the Thai group, possibly S$60 per share," said Goh Han Peng, analyst at DMG & Partners Securities in Singapore.
If Kindest Place's offer succeeds, it will control more than 15pc of APB, having already agreed to buy 7.9pc of the beer maker from Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp and its insurance unit Great Eastern Holdings last month at a lower price of S$45 a share.
Charoen can also try and block the full sale of APB to Heineken by voting against the deal through Thai Beverage PCL, which he controls. ThaiBev, the maker of Chang beer, is F&N's biggest shareholder with about 24pc.
Analysts say Charoen recognises the value of the APB business, which has a dominant position in most markets where it operates such as Vietnam and Singapore, and is expected to enjoy a rising stream of profits for many years to come.
Charoen and ThaiBev had not previously indicated whether they supported or opposed the sale of APB to Heineken.
Japanese beermaker Kirin, F&N's second-largest shareholder with about 15pc, has also not made its views known, although analysts believe it may be interested in F&N's soft drink interests rather than its brewing.
F&N said Kindest Place's offer will lapse at 5pm Singapore time on August 16.
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