2012年8月10日星期五

Edible-Oils To Remain Underperformers - Macq

10 Aug 2012         
 Macquarie expects edible-oils to remain significant underperformers among agri-commodities, diverging from grain and oilseed prices' meteoric rise, due to soyoil's decline in value share in soybeans, indicating edible-oil fundamentals aren't as tight as meal fundamentals.

 It expects the CPO-soy price discount could widen further over the next three months, given CPO's seasonal production recovery. 

Slowing biodiesel demand is also weakening edible oils, partly on crude-oil price declines, it says.

 "We view the edible oils market as well-supplied, despite likelihood of a poor U.S. soy crop, especially in light of slowing demand. Should these demand fundamentals remain unchanged and no new weather-related supply issues develop, we believe that the coming year could be a surplus year for CPO." 

It expects plantation-sector players' earnings to be below street estimates given sharp CPO and palm-kernel price falls during the quarter. Its top picks are Sime Darby (4197.KU) for its non-plantation businesses, First Resources (EB5.SG) for strong production growth and London Sumatra (LSIP.JK) for potential positive earnings surprise. 

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