2011年11月30日星期三

IT'S OFFICIAL: Europe Has 10 Days To Save The Euro


BRUSSELS (AP) — Under pressure to deliver shock treatment to the ailing euro, European finance ministers failed to come up with a plan for European countries to spend within their means. Such a plan is needed before Europe's central bank and the International Monetary Fund consider stepping in to stem an escalating threat to the global economy.

The ministers delayed action on major financial issues — such as the concept of a closer fiscal union that would guarantee more budgetary discipline — until their bosses meet next week in Brussels.

Stock markets fell Wednesday as a top EU official conceded that the future of the euro now rests heavily on the meeting of European heads of state on Dec. 9. Stock markets had risen this week on hopes that intense bond market pressure would finally force the eurozone into quicker and more robust action.

"We are now entering the critical period of 10 days to complete and conclude the crisis response of the European Union," EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said, adding: "There is no one single silver bullet that will get us out of this crisis."

At a meeting Tuesday night, finance ministers for the 17 countries that use the euro handed Greece a promised euro8 billion ($10.7 billion) rescue loan to fend off its immediate cash crisis and promised to increase the firepower of a fund to help bail out ailing eurozone countries.

But they failed to increase the firepower of a European bailout fund to euro1 trillion ($1.3 trillion), as they had hoped to do.
"It will be very difficult to reach something in the region of a trillion. Maybe half of that," said Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager.

Klaus Regling, head of the bailout fund, tried to be upbeat, saying the ministers had committed to increasing its size from its current euro440 billion ($587 billion) but refusing to give a specific size. He assured reporters it was more than big enough to deal with Europe's immediate debt problems.

"To be clear, we do not expect investors to commit large amounts of money during the next few days or weeks," Regling said. "Leverage is a process over time."
The ministers did agree to use the bailout fund to offer financial protection of 20-30 percent to investors who buy new bonds from troubled eurozone nations.
"We made important progress on a number of fronts," eurozone chief Jean-Claude Juncker insisted late Tuesday. "This shows our complete determination to do whatever it takes to safeguard the financial stability of the euro."

Wednesday's meeting in Brussels has brought in the 10 non-euro finance ministers from the 27-nation EU, who have been pressing hard for a swift solution for fear that their economies will suffer.
Sweden's Anders Borg said there was no more time to waste and that the markets don't provide "any honeymoons" for any countries that stray from fiscal austerity. He stressed that Spain and Italy need to "take out all the skeletons" from their financial closets and implement budgetary belt tightening measures.
Many economists say the 17 nations that use the euro have little choice but to back proposals for much closer coordination of their spending and budget policies.

Though such a change would reduce their ability to run budget deficits, it could potentially pave the way for much more aggressive support from the European Central Bank.
"If the eurozone is to survive, there needs to be more fiscal union," said Eswar Prasad, an economics professor at Cornell University in the state of New York.
For struggling economies, this might be the necessary price of survival. With such discipline in place, the ECB could then agree to make major purchases of government bonds from Europe's troubled countries. Doing so could help lower their borrowing costs and enable them to finance their debts.
For now, the ECB has been reluctant to take such a frontline role, arguing that it's up to governments to sort out their fiscal mess. It's voiced worries that a big bond-buying program could allow economically reckless countries off the hook for painful spending cuts and tax increases.
But a tighter fiscal union could reassure the ECB and lead it to act more forcefully, said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, a fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
The alternative could be a default by Greece, or even Italy, and a break-up of the eurozone. That could spark chaos, forcing some or all the countries to return to their own individual currencies.
A default could also cause lending to seize up worldwide. Some European banks holding large amounts of government debt would likely collapse. As credit dried up, other banks around the world would probably hoard cash. The credit crunch could push European countries into a deep recession.
A European downturn would also slow the flow of exports to Europe from the United States and Asia and weaken their economies. U.S. stock markets would likely fall, reducing household wealth and consumer spending and further choking growth.
Many economists say the threat of default means the International Monetary Fund might end up contributing to a bailout fund. An IMF spokesman denied Tuesday that the international lending group is consulting with the Italian or Spanish governments.
But the IMF could work with institutions like the ECB, Cornell's Prasad said. Funneling money through the IMF would be more politically palatable for the ECB than directly aiding individual countries.
Still, the IMF has only about $390 billion available to lend. That wouldn't be anywhere near enough to rescue Italy, which has $1.2 trillion in debt.
"In the short term, there is only the ECB," Kirkegaard said.

Finally, Something Bullish Out Of Washington


congressKnock on wood, but it sounds like Washington might avoid an opportunity to hurt the economy.

Reuters and other outlets are reporting that Republicans are likely to support extending the payroll tax cut.
Various firms have estimated that the tax cuts are worth 0.5-1.5% of GDP, so it's a big deal.

There's still a dispute about how the tax cuts would be "paid for". Hopefully they can come up with some accounting trick. Bottom line though is that it seems it's just too politically costly to be seen as opposing a continued tax cut

By The Way, The Shanghai Market Got Crushed Last Night


Just to put a little bit more context on China's cutting the Reserve Requirement Ratio: Shanghai got clobbered last night, with stocks falling 3.3%.

You can see the index (via Bloomberg) is getting very close again to its lows of the year.

chart
Image: Bloomberg


The Incredible Swing In The German Yield Curve


This is a great chart tweeted out by Reuters Jamie McGeever comparing the German yield curve to the yield curve three weeks ago.

Two things to note: Short term German yields are now negative, a sign of extreme demand for the most liquid, safe products across the continent.

And on the other hand, the longer part of the curve is now yielding more, as concerns creep into German credit.
Pretty remarkable.
The dark line is the current curve.

chart

Stocks Just Turned Around And Surged Higher After China Slashes Reserve Requirements



The PBOC has cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks by 50 basis points.

Stocks have instantly reversed course.

Whereas before Dow futures were off some 40 points, now the Dow is up37 points.

What this means for China is that it's now less concerned about inflation, and more concerned about fighting slow growth.
Of course, this is the trend all around the world.

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell



Kourtney Kardashian
Image: Shutterstock

Good morning. Here's what you need to know.
  • Asian markets were mostly lower, with the Shanghai SE Composite shedding 3.3%. Europe followed suit, with the French CAC and German DAX down moderately. U.S. futures are pointing to a higher open.
  • Standard & Poor's downgraded 37 financial institutions yesterday, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, setting off a cascade of worries among analysts that banks will need to post additional collateral against trades held. 

  • The People's Bank of China lowered reserve requirement ratios for banks by 50 basis points. Before the announcement, the PBOC held the requirement at 21.5% for the country's largest banks, on concerns that economic growth could cool.
  • South Korea’s industrial output dropped 0.7% sequentially in October, but increased by 6.2% year-on-year. The country's domestic machinery shipment index declined by 8.1%, while consumer trends ticked upwards as retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month.
  • Indian GDP grew by 6.9% in the quarter ending this September, its slowest expansion in more than two years. However, that was in line with analyst expectations. Manufacturing output increased 2.7% while mining fell 2.9%.
  • Today kicks off a slew of economic data announcements. ADP announces private payrolls, with analysts expecting growth of 130,000 jobs. At 2 p.m., the Federal Reserve's Beige Book will be released.
  • Silver Lake has entered a bid for a minority stake in Yahoo! at $16.60 a share, Brian Womack, Jeffrey McCracken and Douglas MacMillan of Bloomberg report. That comes in lower than a bid by TPG Capital and values the firm at $20.6 billion.
  • The FCC is allowing AT&T to withdraw its application to take over smaller wireless carrier T-Mobile for $39 billion. Documents delving into both carriers operations would have been made public had the FCC refused. Take a look at the investment banks that have it all riding on deals like this.
  • Pfizer's blockbuster cholesterol pill, Lipitor, loses its patent exclusivity today, allowing generic competitors to enter the market. Last year, Lipitor generated revenue of $10.7 billion. Analysts have predicted that could fall by nearly 70% in 2012 as generics begin competing for share.
  • Unemployment in Italy jumped unexpectedly as the economy slowed further. The jobless rate hit a 17-month high of 8.5%. Meanwhile good news in Germany, unemployment was revised lower to 6.9% as 2.9 million people remain out of work.

歐債衝擊‧小股當道‧臨尾反彈27點‧綜指11月挫20點


  • (圖:法新社)
(吉隆坡30日訊)歐債與美經濟存變數,企業盈利表現乏善可陳,馬股11月如預期節節敗退,儘管低價股在炒風刮起下逆流而上,馬股臨尾絕地反攻,但始終無法力挽狂瀾,富時綜指單月挫1.33%,富時全股指數也跌1.04%。
創業板指數逆市漲2.57%
總結11月表現,馬股各指數幾乎收黑,但因一些小型股逆勢當道,創業板指數卻意外開紅盤作收,以單月漲2.57%,傲視全場。
然而,歐洲決策者或採取措施遏制歐債惡化,令馬股臨尾出現一線曙光,即使國際信評機構標準普爾在歐債危機削減全球獲利前景下調降美國信評,亞股普遍下跌,馬股依舊延續週二漲勢,特定藍籌股業績唱好帶動下,綜指大反彈,不但站穩1450點,更以全日最高1472.10點閉市,漲27.38點。
除因業績唱豐收的豐隆銀行(HLBANK,5819,主板金融組)、雲頂(GENTING,3182,主板貿服組)、貿易風(TWS,4421,主板消費品組)與健力士英格(GAB,3255,主板消費品組)等藍籌股也因市場調整投資組合,臨尾趕上漲潮列車。
儘管大馬第三季經濟成長超越預期,達5.8%,但歐美經濟陰影揮之不去,意大利可能成為下個倒債國家、意希政治危機、美減赤破局、歐洲評級下調等負面消息接踵而來,令馬股難突破重圍,11月表現特別沉重,部份企業表現疲弱,也進一步向馬股施壓。
低價股與憑單成交量齊破億
馬股炒風猛吹,市場棄高價股,馬股11月掀起低價股與憑單母子輪番上陣,成交量齊破億的罕見情景,因首相拿督斯里納吉公子莫哈末納茲福丁受委為非執行董事,身價在短短一個月漲超過20倍豐盛工業(HARVEST,9342,主板工業產品組)最受矚目,惟在該股被列為“指定股”與納茲福丁呈辭後,卻屢上演跌停板行情。
此外,除具抗跌屬性的消費品指數,原產品價略趨穩,也令種植指數順利保住漲勢,表現最亮眼,單月起1.65%。
建築股指數表現最差
經濟轉型計劃不敵低迷市道,建築股指數上個月反彈後開始泄氣,表現最差勁,單月挫3.99%。
儘管馬股11月表現欠佳,肯納格研究副研究主管陳建堯認為,表現並沒有想像中糟,馬股臨尾的大反彈更為股市注入強心劑。
黃氏發展證券高級抽傭經紀盧文豪也提到,馬股最後一日表現超越區域,可能歸功於大選與基金經理趁機進場以迎接12月的原因。
櫥窗粉飾‧大選佈局
馬股12月上看1500點
馬股11月臨尾反彈,年尾在基金經理櫥窗粉飾支撐下上漲動力有望延續,低價股炒風也可能續發威,但因歐美情況仍不明朗,間中難免回調,年杪目標水平為1485點,國內大選主導下馬股有望重展1500點雄風。
陳建堯直言,12月一般是第四季表現最好的一個月,因此,馬股在11月大失血後,有望隨基金經理調整投資組合重振旗鼓。
強力反攻料持續
馬股11月最後一個交易日強力反攻,陳建堯不排除該衝勁持續,但因外圍未撥開迷霧,或不時隨外圍震盪,出現小調整。
盧文豪認為,馬股通常在12月表現穩健,雖然歐債疑雲未解,農曆新年前漲潮可能不大,但相信大選因素或助馬股取得一些突破。
“除基金經理的櫥窗粉飾,美國股市12月表現一般也不俗,令馬股12月表現可期。”
另外,儘管低價股炒風逐漸平靜,陳建堯不排除低價股隨大市唱好繼續高歌,因據以往經驗,低價股衝力一般延續到新年。
藍籌股有望轉強
不過,盧文豪對低價股表現有所保留,認為自豐盛工業被列為“指定股”,低價股炒風已收斂,相信12月份可能更平靜,反觀,藍籌股或在基金經理趁機調整投資組合下轉強。
按技術層面論,肯納格研究12月馬股的阻力水平落在1470點,立即支持水平為1430點。陳建堯不排除馬股站上1500點的潛力,惟因歐美情況仍令人忐忑,保持目標水平1485點。
盧文豪不排除,國內大選利好帶動馬股士氣,並奮勇站上1500點,但這將是很大的阻力水平,支持水平為1430點。
根據MIDF研究,12月份是馬股傳統旺季,很可能掀起年杪及佳節漲潮,而過去11年,馬股在11月轉弱後,12月份料強勁反彈。該行年杪目標同樣是1485點。