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2011年11月30日星期三

索羅斯斥資1.5億　認購周大福IPO

香港《明報》週三報導稱，香港珠寶商周大福首次公開發售股份（IPO）除獲得恆地主席李兆基和華置主席劉鑾雄支持外，金融大鱷索羅斯亦有參與認購，金額不少於5000萬美元（1億5897萬令吉）。

報導援引消息人士稱，索羅斯在前日周大福首日路演已敲定參與認購，而且「買入數額一定不會少」。由於說明會仍在進行，不排除進一步「加碼」認購。
周大福是次IPO將發行10.5億股股份，相當於上市後股本10.5%，招股區間定在每股15至21港元，預計最多可籌集28.3億美元。
該股份預計12月8日定價，15日在聯交所掛牌上市。
報導稱，索羅斯近年曾與不少新股接洽認購，但由於基金規模較大，故只會認購集資規模較大的新股，比如其認購的龍湖地產、四環醫藥、正通汽車等。

11月普遍下跌　馬股12月料掀漲潮

歐美經濟持續不明朗的局勢，依舊主導11月馬股及區域股市的下跌走勢。儘管如此，市場人士仍相信，來臨的2011年最後一個月，在櫥窗粉飾的效應下，馬股將呈現良好的上升勢頭。

至於11月的最後一個交易日，區域股市表現起落參半。富時大馬綜合指數上漲27.38點或1.9%，收在1472.10點；泰國曼谷指數攀升7.27點或0.74%，收在995.33點；印尼雅加達指數上漲27.31點或0.74%，閉市報3715.08點；而新加坡海峽指數上漲14.36點或0.53%，閉市報2702.46點。其餘股市則以跌勢掛收。
回顧11月份的表現，區域股市中僅有泰國曼谷指數按月攀漲2.11%，其他股市皆呈現跌勢。其中跌幅最大的有香港恆生指數，共下跌9.44%；隨後則是台灣加權指數和日經225指數，分別下跌9.01%及6.16%。
另外，上海證券指數、新加坡海峽指數和首爾綜合指數，亦各別下跌5.46%、5.37%和3.22%。
至於跌幅較低的則是馬尼拉股票指數和印尼雅加達指數，分別下跌2.83%及2%；而富時綜指屬區域股市內跌幅最低的指數，達1.33%。
總結11月份的馬股走勢，大馬抽佣經紀協會主席黃峋理認為，馬股的成交量相當穩健，平均維持在15億至20億股左右。「同時，二三線股的賺幅平均皆超過一倍以上，預計散戶在11月間已從中獲利。」
聯昌國際投行研究主管黃大任則指出，馬股11月普遍處於下跌局勢，但將從這波動較大的格局中找尋支撐點。
同時，他表示，歐美不明朗局勢，亦拖累馬股的整體走勢。
仙股熱潮冷卻
與此同時，11月初馬股出現仙股被熱捧的趨勢，但這股趨勢近期已逐漸冷卻，其中最熱門的仙股，即豐升工業（HARVEST，9342，主板工業股）亦被大馬交易所列為「指定股項」，而從高峰大幅下跌。儘管如此，黃峋理認為，該股的「指定股項」限令一旦被解除，依然可為馬股製造新一波流通量。
至於12月份的走勢，市場人士相信，隨著股市已恢復健康水平，預計馬股或出現大漲的局勢。
黃大任認為，12月一般上是一年內表現最好的月份，且相信將在12月中或12月杪市場將進行「櫥窗粉飾」活動。
倘若歐美國家的經濟局勢持穩，預計馬股將有強勁的成長格局。黃大任預計馬股年杪將收在1490點的水平。
此外，黃峋理則透露，大選及農曆新年將近的因素，有助馬股在12月呈現上漲的趨勢。
對於2012年的走勢，黃峋理表示，市場的資金流動強勁，但基於這些資金相對鬆動且無目標，因此無法預計資金會否流向股市，而帶動股市走高。
然而，他相信馬股將呈現良好的走勢，並建議散戶在合適的時機提早進場，以從中獲益。
黃大任則預計馬股將在2012年杪攀升至1570點的水平。
此外，他表示，備受看好的領域有油氣領域、建築領域和產業領域。至於電訊領域的表現則較趨向保守型。

STOCKS EXPLODE HIGHER AFTER LATEST ATTEMPT TO SAVE THE WORLD: Here's What You Need To Know

Sam Ro

Nov. 30, 2011

4:00 PM

Central banks around the world to the rescue?
First, the scoreboard:
Dow: +490.1 pts, +4.2%
S&P 500: +51.7 pts, +4.3%
NASDAQ: +104.8 pts, +4.2%
And now, the top stories:

Global coordinated intervention. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, and the Swiss National Bank announced they would lower the cost of swapping dollars. Specifically, they are cutting the U.S. dollar liquidity swap rate by 50 basis points. This is an effort to boost liquidity in the European bank funding markets. The announcement, which came before the markets opened, caused futures to roar higher.

In case that wasn't enough, the Fed also reminded us that it could still do much more: "[W]ere conditions to deteriorate, the Federal Reserve has a range of tools available to provide an effective liquidity backstop for such institutions and is prepared to use these tools as needed to support financial stability and to promote the extension of credit to U.S. households and businesses."

In other market moving central bank actions, the People's Bank of China cut its reserve ratio requirement for banks by 50 basis points. In other words, the PBOC reduced the amount of money banks have to keep on hand, which should encourage more lending activity. This move is likely to appease those fearing a hard landing for the slowing Chinese economy.

U.S. financials were among the big winners today. This despite last night's S&P ratings cuts, which included Bank of America (+7.3%), Citigroup (+8.9%), and Morgan Stanley (+11.1%). S&P also cut Wells Fargo (+7.4%) and Goldman Sachs (+7.9%) and slapped negative outlooks on the two banks.

Metals were also among the major movers today. Gold jumped 2% and copper soared 6%. Mining stocks were big winners today. Rio Tinto and Freeport McMoran jumped 9.2% and 8.6%, respectively.

The U.S. saw three pieces of good economic data this morning. According to ADP, companies added 206k private payrolls in November, crushing economists estimate of 130k. This is encouraging ahead of Friday's big BLS jobs numbers

The Chicago PMI came in at 62.6, beating the estimate of 58.5. October pending home sales jumped 10.4%, smashing the estimate of of 2.0%.

The Fed Beige Book of economic anecdotes was released this afternoon. It showed 11 of 12 Fed districts were showing slow to moderate growth. The only exception was the St. Louis district, which includes parts of Arkansas, Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Mississippi.

There were few losers in the stock markets today. Netflix was the biggest loser in the S&P 500, falling 4.5%.

Market Breaking News 30/11/11

1.Central Banks Make Coordinated Move to Address Pressures in Global Money Markets

2.ADP Private Sector Jobs Rose 206,000.
3. Third-Quarter Productivity Revised Downward, Now Up 2.3% During the 3Q.

4. Contracts to Buy Existing Homes Surge in October at a Quicker-than-Expected Pace

5. Mortgage Applications Fell 11.7 Percent in Week Ended Nov. 25.

6. Stocks soared at the open Wednesday following news global central banks announced coordinated actions to enhance their capacity to provide liquidity to financial systems and after China said it would loosen monetary policy by cutting banks' reserve requirements.

All 30 Dow components jumped, led by BofA and JPMorgan.

7. 3.Stocks extended their sharp gains across the board Wednesday after global central banks announced a coordinated plan to support the global financial system and following a handful of better-than-expected economic news.

The Dow is back in positive territory for 2011.

8. Stocks traded near highs Wednesday after global central banks announced a coordinated plan to support the global financial system, a handful of better-than-expected economic news and China said it would loosen monetary policy.
The Dow and S&P are on track to post their best weekly point gains in almost three years.
All 10 S&P sectors were firmly in positive territory led by materials and industrials.

9. US economic activity increased at a slow to moderate pace in most regions, according to the Fed's beige-book report for November. The one exception was the St. Louis area.

10. Stocks rallied sharply to finish at their best levels Wednesday after global central banks announced a plan to support the global financial system, a handful of better-than-expected economic reports and China said it would loosen monetary policy.

All 30 Dow components finished higher, led by JPMorgan and Caterpillar. The blue-chip index is back in the black for 2011.

MARKETS SURGE AS FED/ECB/BOJ/BOE/SNB/BOC ANNOUNCE COORDINATED INTERVENTION

Joe Weisenthal

Nov. 30, 2011

8:01 AM

Image: Air Force

All the world's central banks have just announced a big coordinated intervention to lower swap rates.

What does that mean?

Basically this: European banks have been parched for liquidity, and need access to dollars. The ECB can't supply them dollars unless it borrows them from the Fed.

Essentially today's action makes it easier for the ECB and thus European banks to borrow dollars.
It's not a solution to the euro crisis by any means; it just means that the most acute liquidity problems will be mitigated for now.
The market is loving the news.
US markets had been down by 0.5% at one point this morning, but now futures are pointing to a 3% gain. Dow futures are up 2.83%.
Note that there are some other bullish things going on today. China lowered its Reserve Requirement Ratio also this morning, and we got a strong ADP jobs report.
So, lots of bullish action going on.
Here's the full announcement from the ECB.
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30 November 2011 - Coordinated central bank action  to address pressures in global money markets

The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing coordinated actions to enhance their capacity to provide liquidity support to the global financial system. The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity.

These central banks have agreed to lower the pricing on the existing temporary US dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points so that the new rate will be the US dollar Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rate plus 50 basis points. This pricing will be applied to all operations conducted from 5 December 2011. The authorisation of these swap arrangements has been extended to 1 February 2013. In addition, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank will continue to offer three-month tenders until further notice.

As a contingency measure, these central banks have also agreed to establish temporary bilateral liquidity swap arrangements so that liquidity can be provided in each jurisdiction in any of their currencies should market conditions so warrant. At present, there is no need to offer liquidity in non-domestic currencies other than the US dollar, but the central banks judge it prudent to make the necessary arrangements so that liquidity support operations could be put into place quickly should the need arise. These swap lines are authorised through 1 February 2013.

European Central Bank Decision
The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided in co-operation with other central banks the establishment of a temporary network of reciprocal swap lines. This action will enable the Eurosystem to provide euro to those central banks when required, as well as enabling the Eurosystem to provide liquidity operations, should they be needed, in Japanese yen, sterling, Swiss francs and Canadian dollars (in addition to the existing operations in US dollars).
The ECB will regularly conduct US dollar liquidity-providing operations with a maturity of approximately one week and three months at the new pricing. The schedule for these operations, which will take the form of repurchase operations against eligible collateral and will be carried out as fixed-rate tender procedures with full allotment, will be published today on the ECB’s website.
In addition, the initial margin for three-month US dollar operations will be reduced from currently 20% to 12% and weekly updates of the EUR/USD exchange rate will be introduced in order to carry out margin calls. Those changes will be effective as of the operations to be conducted on 7 December 2011. Further details about the operations will be made available in the respective modified tender procedure via the ECB’s Website.

股價異常波動　蔚世泰 ( VERSATL ) 遭交易所詢問

由於蔚世泰公司（VERSATL，4995，主板工業股）今天的股價異常波動，因此接獲大馬交易所發出不尋常交易活動（UMA）詢問。

蔚世泰公司週三的股價與成交量均大幅攀高，成為全場第4大熱門股。該股以0.375令吉掛收，揚升27.12%或8仙。

蔚世泰公司全天處於漲勢，早盤以0.33令吉開市後，雖一度稍微收窄至全天最低的0.32令吉；但午盤的走勢相當凌厲，一度登上全天最高的0.43令吉。

該股全天共有5289萬9200股易手，遠超週二的1471萬9700股。

市場傳言蔚世泰公司的股價急漲27%，可能是因為該公司即將出現大股東變動。根據現有的股權架構，Versatile Credit & Leasing公司是蔚世泰公司的最大單一股東，持有20.64%股權。

MORGAN STANLEY: This Is What The US Economy Will Be Like In 2012 And 2013

Sam Ro

Nov. 28, 2011

10:45 AM

Image: Flickr

As 2011 comes to a close, Wall Street analysts are slowly unveiling their forecasts for 2012.

Morgan Stanley's Global Economics Team led by Joachim Fels just released their updated global economic outlook for 2012 and 2013.

Included in the report is their forecast for the U.S. economy.

"Our U.S. base case remains anaemic growth of just over 2% next year, but this crucially depends on our assumption that Congress will extend most of this year’s fiscal stimulus into next year," wrote the analysts.

Morgan Stanley's base case is the Fed will embark on QE3 by spring of 2012.

The report provides a detailed break-down of base, bear, and bull case scenarios for the U.S. economy.