Arvind Subramanian, the author of Eclipse:
Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance, may be the only
respected economist who thinks China's GDP has
already passed America.
So what does this uber bull think
of the hard landing talk? Not much, he tells WSJ's
China Real Time Report:
Subramanian: You need to distinguish between the
short term and the long term growth. Even if China has a hard landing [soon], it
has the ability to recover and get back 6.5% annual growth or so over the next
20 years [which would make China’s economy larger than the U.S].
Skeptics always point to Japan. The argument is
that China’s financial system is fundamentally messed up like Japan’s, so China
will go the way of Japan. But that analogy is nonsense. At the end of a
financial event [that halts Chinese growth], China would still be 25% the size
of the U.S. GDP. It would still have the ability to catch up to the U.S. Japan
was already at the level of the U.S. [on a per capita basis when its crisis
began more than 20 years ago].
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