STOCKS GO NOWHERE AGAIN AS DEBT CEILING FIGHT HEATS UP: Here's What You Need To Know

Sam Ro

 Jan. 14, 2013

The markets didn't move much.  But trouble may be brewing as the U.S. inches closer to its debt ceiling.

First the scoreboard:

Dow: 13,507, +18.8, +0.1 percent

S&P 500: 1,470, -1.3, -0.0 percent

NASDAQ: 3,117, -8.1, -0.2 percent

And now the top stories:

• This is the second trading session where stocks basically went nowhere.  But no one's complaining considering the fact that stocks currently sit near their five-year high.  However, Vitaliy Katsenelson of Contrarian Edge, notes that stocks are flat since 2000.  And he recently gave a big presentation arguing that stocks could go sideways for another decade.

• Meanwhile, Washington continues to wrestle over a deal that would address the debt ceiling. "If Congressional Republicans refuse to pay America’s bills on time, Social Security checks, veterans benefits will be delayed," Obama said during a press conference today.  Check out this painting that describes what would happen if the U.S. defaults on its debt.

• So, what's with the complacency in the markets?  "A key investment lesson of the last five years is that politicians eventually reach a compromise although markets may suffer in the interim," wrote Goldman Sachs' David Kostin in a note to clients this week. "Investors have become accustomed to midnight negotiations in order to avoid one dire fate after another. Accordingly, downside may be limited this time."

• Meanwhile, computer giant Dell is reportedly in talks to be bought out in a private equity deal.  The stock jumped 13 percent on the rumor.

• Shares of Apple fell by over 3 percent on a Wall Street Journal report that the tech giant was cutting orders for iPhone parts.

3 Things Gold Investors Should Pay Attention To This Month

Andrew Nyquist, See It Market

 Jan. 11, 2013

• Gold Technical Analysis Points to January Trading Bottom

After a Fed-induced rally into October 2012, precious metals lost their luster, trending lower for much of the past 3 months. This price action has been particularly frustrating for Gold bulls, as many thought the previous move higher was set for continuation based on gold technical analysis.

It’s amazing to see how sentiment has changed in just a month or two. Now some pundits are wondering if Gold will need to take out the 2012 price lows before embarking upon a new leg higher. The metals are clearly soaked with uncertainty here, so an uptick in volatility is likely. Gold followers and investors would be wise to block out the noise and focus on the price action and inter-market corollary indicators (i.e. the US Dollar). Of course this is easier said than done, especially with another round of debt ceiling talks and political posturing lurking around the corner.

My thoughts: January will likely tell the tale. And Gold technical analysis and recent cycle analysis seems to confirm this… at least from a trading perspective.

With this in mind, here are three factors that Gold investors should be aware of over the coming days/weeks:

1. Gold Technical Analysis and Levels (in terms of GLD):

So, what levels should investors be watching now and how will investors know when the sparkle is about to return to Gold (GLD)? Well the answer to that question may largely depend on GLD’s ability to hang in and around the 61.8 Fibonacci retrace level (let’s call it $158). Note that this level was briefly touched in December. As well, a similar setup occurred at the same Fibonacci retrace level in April 2012… and resulted in a breakdown. With volatility sure to rise, investors may want to give GLD some intraday leash, or possibly apply a closing rule for exiting positions (note that this rule can be applied for re-entry as well). Gold technical analysis highlights lower supports at $155, followed by the 2012 lows.

Should Gold pivot higher, upside levels to watch include $164 (December breakdown and early January pivot), the upper channel downtrend line ($167 and falling), followed by $170 and $174. Either way, volatility is likely to pick up, so investors (long and short) would be wise to create a plan and manage risk accordingly.

See It Market

See It Market

2. The January Barometer:

Each of the past 3 years have seen significant trading bottoms in or around January. And this year appears to be headed in that direction again. The Gold Bugs Index is extremely oversold and trying to stabilize. The index is also near it’s 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of the summer-fall 2012 rally.

See It Market

3. The US Dollar:

The Dollar is the wild card here. And as one of the best corollary indicators for the direction of gold, it bears watching. After rallying out of a nice rounded bottom in 2011 (which correlated with a topping pattern in Gold), the Dollar spent much of 2012 forming a Head and Shoulders pattern. A sustained break above 81 would foil the pattern and likely start a move higher for the dollar (bearish for Gold). However, a break below the 78-79 neckline level, and Gold will be in rally mode.

See It Market

Other recent articles/notes of interest include Pragmatic Capitalism’s “Two Reasons to be Bullish on Gold,” wherein Cullen Roche highlights David Rosenberg’s 2013 bullish forecast. He points out that monetary expansion and stagnant gold mining production are at the heart of the bullish argument. Also see Minyanville’s “Gold Should Be Nearing a Major Bottom,” wherein David Bannister points to a late December/early January trading bottom.

Trade safe, trade disciplined.

STOCKS GO NOWHERE: Here's What You Need To Know

Sam Ro

 Jan. 11, 2013

Wikimedia Commons

Not much news today.

First the scoreboard:

Dow: 13,488, +17.2, +0.1 percent

S&P 500: 1,472, -0.0, -0.0 percent

NASDAQ: 3,125, +3.8, +0.1 percent

And now the top stories:

• The November U.S. trade deficit came in at $48.7 billion in November, which was much wider than the $41.8 billion expected by economists.  This was largely due to the sharp 3.8 percent jump in imports.

• "Despite recent weakness in investment spending ahead of the fiscal cliff, non-auto capital goods imports managed to increase in November (+$0.4 bil, 0.9%)," wrote UBS's Kevin Coffin.  "More generally, the broad-based increases in imports suggest a fairly decent pace of consumer and capital spending through November, and perhaps some inventory building."

• In a report today, the National Retail Federation wrote that we should expect another spike in imports in the January data as a looming dockworkers strike is forcing retailers to accelerate their inventory shipments.  Craig Sherman of the NRF estimates that imports could jump by around 2.3 percent.

• In other news about balances, the Treasury Department reported that the U.S. has a budget deficit of just $260 million.  This was much narrower than the $1billion expected by economists.  It was also the narrowest December reading since 2007.

• The debt ceiling debate continues in Washington as Congressional leaders spar on a fiscal policy deal.  Meanwhile, Senate Democrats are urging President Barack Obama to "take any lawful steps" to work around the debt ceiling if Congressional Republicans refuse to raise the nation's borrowing limit.

11 Jan 2013 Kuala Lumpur Closing Stock Prices

Close Prior Change % Change AMMB 6.64 6.64 unch unch BAT 60.90 61.10 -0.20 -0.33 C&C 2.80 2.78 +0.02 +0.72 Genting 9.51 9.74 -0.23 -2.36 GenM 3.61 3.75 -0.14 -3.73 IGB 2.46 2.43 +0.03 +1.23 L&G 0.43 0.42 +0.01 +2.41 MayBank 9.00 9.02 -0.02 -0.22 MAS 0.74 0.74 +0.01 +0.68 PetGas 18.98 18.98 unch unch PbBank 16.20 16.18 +0.02 +0.12 RHBCap 7.90 7.83 +0.07 +0.89 Sime 9.59 9.57 +0.02 +0.21 Telekom 5.82 5.86 -0.04 -0.68 Tenaga 6.92 6.90 +0.02 +0.29 TopGlove 5.31 5.47 -0.16 -2.93 UMW 12.40 12.32 +0.08 +0.65 YTL 1.81 1.82 -0.01 -0.55

11 Jan 2013 Kuala Lumpur Most Actives

Volume Close Change % Change Patimas 245,557,700 0.145 +0.045 +45.00 Takaso 92,981,200 0.270 -0.095 -26.03 TMS 77,706,000 0.080 unch unch D.B.E. 67,907,400 0.085 +0.015 +21.43 DSCSol 28,038,100 0.145 -0.025 -14.71 Compugte 19,088,200 0.080 -0.005 -5.88 Tiger 17,927,600 0.315 +0.005 +1.61 Nextnat 15,280,900 0.105 unch unch Astro 12,652,200 2.990 +0.010 +0.34 Silver 12,524,200 0.075 -0.015 -16.67 Permaju 12,341,800 0.415 -0.015 -3.49 Flonic 12,068,700 0.095 unch unch PDZHld 11,876,900 0.085 +0.010 +13.33 Glotronic 11,148,500 1.700 +0.120 +7.59 IRIS 11,138,800 0.175 unch unch AMedia 10,513,400 0.195 -0.005 -2.50 Itronic 9,768,100 0.360 +0.020 +5.88 SKPetrol 9,695,700 3.000 unch unch ETITech 9,493,000 0.065 +0.005 +8.33 Scomi 9,015,300 0.350 -0.010 -2.78 IRCB 8,844,100 0.135 +0.015 +12.50 DRB-HICOM 8,389,100 2.650 -0.050 -1.85 JCY 8,189,100 0.655 unch unch Axiata 7,971,300 6.690 +0.030 +0.45 DiGi 7,707,200 5.170 +0.020 +0.39 NICORP 7,668,100 0.170 unch unch Telekom 7,635,200 5.820 -0.040 -0.68 KNM 7,624,400 0.510 +0.010 +2.00 Hubline 7,218,500 0.060 unch unch Kbunai 6,827,300 0.120 unch unch Sime 6,803,500 9.590 +0.020 +0.21 YTL 6,426,800 1.810 -0.010 -0.55 Tenaga 6,412,300 6.920 +0.020 +0.29 Mtronic 6,348,800 0.115 -0.005 -4.17 Unisem 6,321,500 1.090 -0.020 -1.80 XOX 5,826,200 0.190 -0.010 -5.00 MayBank 5,734,500 9.000 -0.020 -0.22 UEMLand 5,375,400 2.150 +0.050 +2.38 Maxis 5,281,000 6.550 -0.010 -0.15 Luster 5,180,400 0.105 unch unch AFG 5,118,800 4.410 +0.040 +0.92 Tebrau 4,564,500 0.780 +0.050 +6.85 RHBCap 4,504,400 7.900 +0.070 +0.89 Harvest 4,488,800 0.310 -0.015 -4.62 Alam 4,482,500 0.795 -0.010 -1.24 AMMB 4,301,900 6.640 unch unch CIMB 4,287,800 7.660 +0.030 +0.39 IHH 4,176,400 3.450 -0.010 -0.29 THHeavy 4,169,200 0.535 -0.005 -0.93 YTLPowr 4,151,100 1.600 -0.040 -2.44

STOCKS CLOSE AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2007: Here's What You Need To Know

Sam Ro

Jan. 10, 2013

Falling Outside The Normal Moral Constraints

Stocks had another strong day, closing at a multi-year high.

First the scoreboard:

Dow: 13,471, +80.7, +0.6 percent

S&P 500: 1,472, +11.1, +0.7 percent

NASDAQ: 3,121, +15.9, +0.5 percent

And now the top stories:

• It was a relatively quiet day for news.
• On the economic front, weekly initial jobless claims came in at 371k, up from last week's reading of 367k.  Economists were looking for the number to fall to 365k.  So, the number was a tad disappointing.

• However, investors and economists weren't too worried about the report.  "More generally, the claims data can be volatile this time of year because of the difficulty of seasonal adjustment around the holidays," noted UBS economist Kevin Cummins. "It will be several more weeks before the claims data are free of influence from the holiday seasonal factors. Thus, we attach little weight to possible swings for the next couple of weeks."

• If there were a reason to be bullish today, then it was last night Chinese trade report.  Exports surged 14.1 percent year-over-year in December, which was well ahead of the 5 percent gain forecasted by economists.  Considering China is the world's second largest economy, this is good news for everyone. 

• The drama surrounding Herbalife continues to heat up.  Last month, hedge fund hot shot Bill Ackman announced that he was shorting the stock, accusing the company of being a pyramid scheme.  Shares plummeted back then. Yesterday, Dan Loeb, another high-profile hedge funder, announced that he disagreed with Ackman's thesis.  Loeb is now long the stock.  This morning, activist investor Carl Icahn reportedly jumped into the fray, taking a long position like Loeb.  Meanwhile, Herbalife fired back today with their defense, effectively explaining why Ackman's trade will blow up on him.

babychery♥all about us: Penang wall street art

babychery♥all about us: Penang wall street art