In case you've missed it, the Nikkei has been on a tear this year.
Now granted, lots of markets are booming this year, so what's special about the Nikkei's rise?
Well, two points on that. The first is that Japan has been a long-time laggard, so the rest of the world doing fine has never been a guarantee that Japan would.
And what's catching people's eye is not merely the Nikkei, but the actions of the BOJ and the yen.
See, for the first time in ages, the BoJ actually seems to want to create some inflation, a much derided phenomenon that the country could desperately need. The knock on Japan, is that the society is dominated by the aged, who have enough political clout to oppose any attempts at inflation, and the eating away of their fixed income investments.
But recently, the BoJ actually said it was pursuing an inflation target.
And not only that, the yen -- which has been incredibly strong for decades -- is actually weakening with some pace.
So we're hearing more and more about how it might be different this time in Japan, and the economy could come rumbling back to life.
Makin writes:
Here's a 6-month look at the
index from Bloomberg:
|
Now granted, lots of markets are booming this year, so what's special about the Nikkei's rise?
Well, two points on that. The first is that Japan has been a long-time laggard, so the rest of the world doing fine has never been a guarantee that Japan would.
And what's catching people's eye is not merely the Nikkei, but the actions of the BOJ and the yen.
See, for the first time in ages, the BoJ actually seems to want to create some inflation, a much derided phenomenon that the country could desperately need. The knock on Japan, is that the society is dominated by the aged, who have enough political clout to oppose any attempts at inflation, and the eating away of their fixed income investments.
But recently, the BoJ actually said it was pursuing an inflation target.
And not only that, the yen -- which has been incredibly strong for decades -- is actually weakening with some pace.
Here again, from Bloomberg, is a
look at the dollar vs. yen going back 6 months. As they say: Now that's a
knife.
|
So we're hearing more and more about how it might be different this time in Japan, and the economy could come rumbling back to life.
And the latest bull case on Japan
comes from, of all places, AEI,
where John H. Makin asks: Is Japan Set To Boom?
In addition to discussing the above, Makin does a great job of clearing up
one common worry, which is that a rise in interest rates would cause a rise in
interest rates threatening the countries famously stretched government
budget.Makin writes:
Fortunately, two other important changes would
accompany higher inflation expectations that would help to mitigate the burden
of an eventual rise in interest rates. First, the desire to hold cash and
low-yielding debt would drop and lenders would spend more, especially on durable
goods for which they expect prices to rise. Investors would sell cash and
low-yielding bonds in exchange for stocks as they begin to expect higher
dividends from companies prospering in a faster-growing economy with more
consumption spending and exports. Second, faster growth would generate more tax
revenues, helping defray the government’s higher borrowing costs.
This all amounts to saying that the eventual
normalization of interest rates to, for example, 3 percent on ten-year
government bonds indicates a broader normalization in the Japanese economy that
includes stable prices, higher growth and employment, and an end to chronic
overvaluation of the yen. All major industrial economies go through this process
after a financial crisis; it just does not usually get delayed for twenty years,
during which stagnation prevails. But Japan’s politicians are an unusually
ineffective lot, and the BOJ has been hampered by an almost obsessive fear of
inflation that has led it to tolerate deflation for far too long.
So despite the countrys' massive debt-to-GDP, it needn't fear a rise in
rates. The bigger fear, really, is that the BoJ loses its nerve, or only goes
part way. Still, interesting that people are even talking about this.
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