2014年11月13日星期四

估值全下调‧避开勘探型 只买有生产力油气股


(吉隆坡12日讯)随着国际油价下滑,分析员将油气业估值全线调低,并建议投资者弃油气“勘探股”,转注重在受油价波动较小的“生产股”上。
由于国际油价节节败退,马银行投行研究将布兰特原油平均销售价预估,下调15%,至每桶85美元,分析员也因此将所追踪的油气股本益比,从原本的15至20倍,下调至7至14倍。
油价短线续低
分析员也预见,油价难以在短期内回弹到10月前的水平,相信油气股的低估值将持续一阵子。
“勘探型”的公司,在油田营运、钻井、造船服务方面,很可能会在此轮低迷油市中遭受挫折。
“一旦每日租金率降低、利用率放软和订单减少的情况出现,小型且独立的勘探与生产商,以及资产老旧和高负债的服务供应商,将首当其冲。”
趁低吸纳4股
马银行投行研究建议投资者可将目光放在从事浮式生产储卸油轮(FPSO)、油槽等“生产型”的公司,因削减资本开销、油价疲弱和波动,对这类业者的冲击较小。
在这当中,一些生产型油气股的股价因国际油市疲弱而遭卖压,反而显现趁低吸纳的魅力。在品质、长期合约和资产负债表上具有优势。
这包括主打FPSO行业的云升控股(YINSON,7293,主板贸服股)和布米阿马达(ARMADA,5210,主板贸服股),还有从事油槽终站服务的戴乐集团(DIALOG,7277,主板贸服股),以及岸外支援船供应商柏达纳(PERDANA,7108,主板贸服股)。
市值蒸发26%
由于早前低估油价的波动程度,该行此轮也大幅度调低所追踪的13家公司估值,并给予油气领域“策略增持”的投资评级。
其中,10家公司的盈利预估遭调低1至83%,11家公司目标价格下修3至55%,并下调5家公司评级。
这些油气股,在油价下跌前市值约720亿令吉,如今已蒸发26%,只剩540亿令吉。
10只股今年至今表现低于大市,只有科恩马(KNM,7164,主板工业产品股)和云升控股表现优越,分别涨70%和26%。

Oil Is Tanking Again


Oil touched new lows on Thursday morning, with Brent crude sinking to its lowest point since 2010.
Brent lost almost $2 in the space of hours, and it is currently trading at $80.56 a barrel. It was trading around $100 a barrel just two months ago. 
Brent 13.11.14
Investing.com
WTI crude suffered similar falls, dropping $1 since from its high of $77.88 a barrel this morning. At the time of writing it is trading at $76.81 a barrel.
Crude Oil 13.11.14
Investing.com
The collapse of oil prices over the last couple of  months is a symptom of both demand shortfalls due to slowing growth in key consumer countries and supply shocks from the US shale oil boom to record supply from Russia. News this morning that industrial output growth slowed in China will do little to boost the oil outlook.
All eyes are now focused on the next move of oil cartel OPEC, which controls 40% of global supplies. OPEC’s largest member Saudi Arabia has repeatedly dismissed rumours of a war on prices in order to combat the shale boom in the US, but the country faces a dilemma between cutting production to bolster prices or allow prices to continue to fall in order to regain market share.
If OPEC does decide against cuts analysts from Societe Generale suggest that falling oil prices could act as a stimulus for the global economy. A $20 decline in oil price adds 0.26% to the global GDP after the first year of shock, according their model.
Here is a long time chart, showing the crude’s performance in 2014:
Screen Shot 2014 11 13 at 9.47.50 AM
FX Investing

Malaysian Is 5th Fatality In Takata Air Bag Scandal



Pic credit: AZUHIRO NOGI/AFP/Getty Images
Honda Motor says a female Malaysian driver was killed by an exploding air bag which deployed with too much force and showered her with metal shrapnel.
The automaker says the woman, who was driving a 2003 Honda City model, died after a crash in July. It did not reveal the identity of the victim.
The air bag was manufactured by struggling Japanese auto parts maker Takata, which has been linked to four previous deaths — all involving Honda cars — in the United States.
The latest fatality spurred Honda to issue a fresh recall of 170,000 cars worldwide.
Takata, which supplies air bags to carmakers including Nissan, BMW and Chrysler, apparently discovered the potentially dangerous defects in 2004, but chose to cover it up instead.
The first air bag recalls were issued only four years later.
Today, some 17 million vehicles have been recalled in relation to the defect.

The 10 Most Important Things In The World Right Now


Comet wathcing
REUTERS/Jacques Brinon/Pool
French National Centre for Space Studies (CNES) president Jean-Yves Le Gall (L) French President Francois Hollande (C) and former French astronaut Claudie Haignere wear 3D glasses during a visit at the Cite des Sciences at La Villette in Paris as they follow the successful landing of the Philae lander on comet 67P/ Churyumov-Gerasimenko, November 12, 2014.
Good morning! Here’s what you need to know for Tuesday.
1. Five major banks, including HSBC, UBS, and JPMorgan Chase, were hit will $3.4 billion in fines for failing to stop bankers from trying to manipulate the foreign exchange market.
2. Authorities also released transcripts as evidence of unacceptable trader behaviour. 
3. Australia is monitoring four Russian warships that are nearing its waters. 
4. The European Space Agency landed a probe, the Philae lander, on a comet for the first time in history.
5. Scientists are now waiting for more information from the probe and praying that it doesn’t bounce off the surface after a harpoon intended to stake the lander into the ground failed to fire.
6. By 2030, China has pledged to cap carbon dioxide emissions and make 20% of energy renewable, although experts say the measures don’t go far enough and it’s not clear how the country plans to achieve these goals, The New York Times reports. 
7. Russia said its airforce will begin conducting air patrols from the Arctic Ocean to the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico for the first time since the end of the Cold War.
9. Hasbro is reportedly in talks to buy DreamWork Animation.
10. Taylor Swift reports she earned $2 million from streaming her songs on Spotify over the last year, significantly less than the $6 million Spotify CEO Daniel Ek claimed top artists would pull in over the next year.
And finally …
Former US presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton had a funny exchange on Twitter and Instagram.

10 Things You Need To Know Before European Markets Open


Shinzo Abe
REUTERS/Ueslei Marcelino
Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe may call a snap election.
Good morning! Here are some of the major news stories moving markets ahead of the market opening in London. 
A Senior Japanese Lawmaker Says Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Has Decided To Call An Election. “It looks like Shinzo Abe has finally made up his mind and it’s fair to consider that he decided to go to the people,” said Tadamori Oshima, a former deputy chief of Abe’s party. 
The Saudi Oil Minister Seems Comfortable With Lower Prices.Minister Ali Al-Naimi denied that the OPEC cartel nations were engaged in a price war, saying that the market set prices, according to the Financial Times.
German Inflation Came In As Expected. Prices rose by 0.8% in the year to October, with more European inflation data out later this morning.
India And The United States Have Resolved Some Of Their Trade Differences. Washington and New Delhi said Thursday they have resolved a row over Indian food subsidies that blocked a key WTO trade agreement earlier this year.
Hasbro Is Reportedly In Talks About Buying Dreamworks Animation. Deadline reports that DreamWorks and Hasbro are in talks to create a combined family entertainment company that would be called DreamWorks-Hasbro, and says the deal is at least 60 days away from being finalised. 
Sony Just Unveiled Web-Based Service Playstation Vue. The new cloud-based TV service, PlayStation Vue, is expected to be commercially launched during the first quarter of 2015. The web-based television service allows users to access live TV and on-demand content without a cable or satellite service, the company said. 
China Is Set To Lift Its Aid to Pacific Nations. Chinese President Xi Jinping will offer a broad aid package to Pacific island nations at a summit in Fiji next week, a foreign ministry official said on Thursday, adding that there was also room to work with six island states not invited because of ties to Taiwan. 
It’s A Quiet Day For Data. Confirmations of inflation in Spain, France and Italy are out before 9 a.m. GMT, and US initial jobless numbers are out at 1.30 p.m. GMT, with economists expecting 280,000 applications for unemployment assistance in the week to November 7. 
Asian Markets Rallied. The Nikkei closed up 1.14% in trading today and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is currently up 0.27%
Keystone Pipeline May Finally Pass US Congress Next Week. The US Congress will vote in coming days on approving construction of the much-delayed Keystone XL oil pipeline, a project Republicans claim is step one in their plan for enhanced US energy production.

2014年11月12日星期三

STOCKS GO NOWHERE, TWITTER SURGES: Here’s What You Need To Know


Dick Costolo Twitter
Kimberly White/Getty Images
Twitter CEO Dick Costolo.
Stocks on Wall Street went nowhere on Wednesday, with the Dow and S&P 500 falling slightly and the Nasdaq gaining 0.3%. Shares of social media company Twitter were big winners on Wednesday, gaining more than 7% as the company held an analyst day for the investment community. 
First, the scoreboard:
  • Dow: 17,611, -3.1, (-0.02%)
  • S&P 500: 2,038, -1.2, (-0.06%)
  • Nasdaq: 4,674.7, +14, (+0.3%)
And now, the top stories on Wednesday:
1. The economic calendar is light this week, but on Wednesday we got the latest report on wholesale inventories, which rose 0.3% month-on-month in September which was better than consensus expectations for a 0.2% rise. In a note to clients following this report, Jesse Hurwitz at Barclays said that the changes, which include slight downward revision to August’s data, “suggest a slightly stronger profile than previously estimated,” though Hurwitz and Barclays kept their third quarter GDP tracking estimate at 3%. 
2. The big stock mover on Wednesday was Twitter, which rose more than 7%, its best day since the summer, as the social media company held its first analyst day and made some bullish predictions about its future. Business Insider’s Jay Yarow has the full report on comments made by Twitter CEO Dick Costolo regarding some of the company’s future plans, but the big news out of its analyst day was this chart from Twitter CFO Anthony Noto. The chart shows Twitter’s revenue growing to $14 billion in ten years, and while Noto said this is not a forecast, Jay noted that this is an unusual, and risky, chart and puts a big target on Twitter’s back. 
3. Goldman Sachs announced its new partners on Wednesday, and Business Insider Julia La Roche has the full list of the firm’s 78 new partners. This brings the list of partners at Goldman to 467, or 1.6% of the firm’s full-time staff. 
4. A big loser on Wednesday were shares of SeaWorld, which fell more than 9% after the theme park operator again reported a decline in attendance. The drop in SeaWorld shares of Wednesday follows a more than 30% drop in the stock price seen back in August, as the company still struggles with the fallout from CNN’s documentary “Blackfish.” 
5. This morning, Macy’s cut its earnings and sales outlook for the year, while also reporting a disappointing 1.3% decline in revenue during the third quarter. “We knew we were up against very strong third-quarter sales growth for our company last year, and thus we had anticipated that our year-over-year comparison would be lower,” Macy’s CEO Terry Lundgren said. “Even so, sales did not live up to our expectations in the quarter.”
6. Wednesday marked four weeks since the stock market bottomed on October 15, and in an email on Wednesday morning, Jonathan Krinsky at MKM Partners highlighted some impressive facts about the recent stock snapback. Overall, the S&P 500 fell about 9% peak-to-trough through late summer to the October bottom, but rose 12% after bottoming out in just 19 trading days. In the fall of 2012, stocks fell by a similar amount, but didn’t rise 12% from the bottom for 49 days. And as of Tuesday, the S&P 500 had been trading above its five-day moving average for 18 straight days, one of the longest streaks since 1996, which indicates strong short-term momentum in the stock market. 

European Markets Are Sinking


mud swimming
REUTERS/Ina Fassbender
European stock markets are falling after opening flat. 
Here’s the scorecard:
France’s CAC 40 is down 0.42%
Germany’s DAX is down 0.72%
The UK’s FTSE 100 is down 0.19%
Italy’s FTSE MIB is down 0.79%
Spain’s IBEX is down 0.56%
Asian markets are solidly up. Japan’s Nikkei closed up 0.43%, touching its highest level in 7 years, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed up 0.55%.
US futures are down a hair: the Dow is 14 points lower and the S&P 500 is 2.245 points down. 
Today, there’s big data out of Europe, with UK unemployment at 9:30 a.m. GMT and eurozone industrial production at 10 a.m. ET. Analysts expect UK unemployment to dip to 5.9% and that industrial production in Europe rose 0.7% between August and September.
At 10:30 a.m. GMT, the Bank of England’s inflation report is out: the quarterly update gives the central bank’s view of the economic outlook and the hints of when interest rate hikes may finally begin.
At 12:00 p.m. GMT there are mortgage application numbers from the US for the week to November 7, and after the close in Europe there’s a speech from dovish Fed regional president Narayana Kocherlakota.