 |
But is this really the deciding moment for Greece?
Some would say Greece is so close to defaulting once €14.4 billion ($18.7 billion) in bonds mature on March 20 that this really is the end.
They would cite politicians who
have laid down an ultimatum for Greece; just this morning Luxembourg's Finance
Minister said Greece must
choose between gripping reforms or euro exit, according to AFP. They will
harp on the likelihood that the current plan on private sector involvement that
doesn't trigger a credit event either won't
happen or will completely destroy the credit default swap markets
.
On the other hand, there are many
signs indicating that EU leaders are once again willing to "kick the can down
the road." Headlines yesterday indicating they could delay
dispersion of some or all of the bailout funds promised to Greece until
April or later suggest they are willing to do just enough to keep the country
from a disorderly default but not enough to truly fix the country's
sustainability problems.
From think tank Open Europe's Raoul Ruparel
this morning:
“There’s no way Greece can actually ever fully
meet the conditions laid down by the EU and IMF – particularly if they keep
piling on new demands. The scale of the cuts goes far beyond any fiscal
consolidation – successful or failed – that any country has gone through in
living memory.”
“The question is instead one of how long the
eurozone’s charade of unrealistic conditions in return for more bailout cash can
continue. Specifically, will Germany and other Triple-A countries accept
half-baked solutions to the big unanswered questions that still haunt the
efforts to save Greece?”
The same goes for the true,
fundamental problems of the eurozone. From
Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer last month:
In Europe, the muddle is the risk. It's not
the breakup of the eurozone we need to fear in 2012 but a reactive, incremental
approach to crisis management that will fail to satisfy investors and could push
events beyond the control of political officials. The uncertainty and volatility
we saw in 2011 has only just begun.
Whether or not this is best for Greece is another story: what are the chances
of the country being able to access the markets for funding anytime in the near
future if it stays in the eurozone versus those if it leaves? What impact will
growth have on that, assuming that a return to growth will probably be easier
with a devalued currency?
EU leaders show every indication
of letting this drag on, with proper protections for their own funds, of course.
The argument over €325 million in new cuts in Greece—trivial in comparison to
the size of the bailout—is more a power struggle than anything else. Germany,
Finland, and the Netherlands are more interested in preserving their economic
interests and punishing Greece for the bad
behavior that has fueled their economies than to truly help the country
recover.
If this is indeed the outcome,
then the Greek people—and not the troubled European leadership—will ultimately
be the ones to instigate a default and even an exit from the euro area. The
societal crisis there deepens daily amid economic contraction and every new
austerity measure has devastating consequences for the general populace. Anger
towards the core over Greek sovereignty and national pride are just starting to
heat up, and if last weekend's protests are any indication then Athens
is ripe to turn into a disaster zone
.
Just as
in Argentina, the people will eventually get fed up, but if this is what
we're waiting on then it could still take a
while.
没有评论:
发表评论