2011年12月3日星期六

9 Huge Dates In Europe You Can't Afford To Miss


Image: Derrick Tyson on Flickr
Europe is abuzz with chatter about meetings of EU leaders next week that they hope will lay out a plan for a rescue of the euro monetary union.
Sentiment has been positive late this week that some sort of resolution is on the way, but EU leaders still have lots of hurdles to jump.


Here's our guide to all the big events you need to be keeping track of in the euro crisis.


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1. Monday, December 5

Monday, December 5
German newspaper Bild's take on the dynamic duo.
Image: Bild
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy will present a plan to create a "stability union" after they meet in Paris.
To date, the French and German leadership has become increasingly divided, with Merkel strongly opposing the more radical action Sarkozy and others have been endorsing.

 

2. Wednesday, December 7
Wednesday, December 7
Image: AP
The Greek Parliament votes on its 2012 budget. With ex-ECB member Lukas Papademos replacing ex-PM George Papandreou, the budget is expected to pass without issue. It will include new austerity and growth measures aimed at bringing Greek debt under control.
It must pass this budget in order to receive the next tranche of €8 billion ($11 billion) in EC/ECB/IMF aid. This is all expected to go off without a hitch, but if for some reason it doesn't this could undermine the stability of the euro currency.

3. Wednesday, December 7 and Thursday, December 8

The European People's Party meets in Marseilles, France. The center-right party enjoys membership of 16 of the European Union's 27 heads of state, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, as well as EU leaders Herman van Rompuy, Jean-Claude Juncker, and Jose Manuel Barroso.
Leaders often engage in debates on issues crucial to EU governance at the meetings, and agree upon party-wide positions. Given the growing ideological divide between Sarkozy and Merkel, this debate could turn heated but important differences could also be resolved.
Those agreements could indicate the direction that an upcoming summit of EU leaders could take.


4. Thursday, December 8

Thursday, December 8
Image: AP/Riccardo De Luca
The European Central Bank will announce its second policy rate decision under the leadership of President Mario Draghi. Draghi will give a press conference following the release.
ECB members are already hinting at cutting rates again in December, after a surprise rate cut in November. Analysts will also be praying for Draghi to change his stance on ECB involvement in the euro crisis and its willingness to purchase virtually unlimited quantities of sovereign debt. The bank has up until now opposed such measures, but this could change at a moment's notice.


5. Friday, December 9

Friday, December 9
Image: AP Images
EU leaders will meet at a summit in Brussels. Opinions made at the European People's Party a few days earlier, the ECB's policy decision, and market conditions will likely influence their thinking on an endgame solution for the eurozone.
Investors have become more optimistic recently about leaders' ability to make some progress at the summit, particularly since it is clear that they are rapidly running out of time to take action. Markets will be hoping for significant, tangible decisions to be made at this meeting, but Germany could still stand in the way.

6. Monday, December 12


Monday, December 12
Greece will start negotiations with the EC/ECB/IMF troika on its next round of bailout funding, or the first tranche it will receive as part of the bailout agreement reached in July and amended in October.


7. Tuesday, December 13

Tuesday, December 13
Image: Wikimedia Commons
The Spanish Parliament will meet for the first time since the center-right Partido Popular took back power from the Socialist Party yesterday. It will have just over a week to decide on a new cabinet and prime minister, although party leader Mariano Rajoy is a shoo-in for the latter.
However, whispers since the election have indicated that the outgoing Socialist party may have attempted to disguise some of the country's national debt. This would inevitably lead to a spike in government borrowing costs, which has not yet happened in force with all the attention on Italy.

8. Wednesday, December 14

Wednesday, December 14

Italy holds a bond auction. Despite yields falling recently in the secondary market, the auction will probably go terribly if EU leaders don't make credible commitments to the stability of the eurozone in the long-term on December 9.

9. Monday, December 19

Monday, December 19
Image: Flickr
€1.22 billion ($1.65 billion) of Greek debt matures. This date should not prove problematic if the next tranche of troika aid is dispersed as planned.
However, if for some reason the Greeks do not succeed in passing a 2012 budget that conforms with troika guidelines, this could be the day that Greece does a hard default on its sovereign debt.

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