Electronics sector expects vibrant start to 2015

By: DAVID TAN

Qdos factory in Penang.

 

THE electronics industry in Penang is anticipating a vibrant first-quarter 2015, which is normally a slower period.

The electronics segment, covering the industrial electronic component, flex-circuits, printed circuit boards (PCB), PCB assembly (PCBA) products, and test equipment manufacturers, also expects to close the 2014 fiscal year with improved results over 2013.

Qdos Flexcircuits Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of Suiwah Corp Bhd, PIE Industrial Bhd, MMS Ventures Bhd and GUH Holdings Bhd are some of the companies experiencing surging demand for their products this year.

Wearable smart devices, portable health equipment, light-emitting-diode (LED) automotive lighting, energy-saving home appliances, and box-built medical and touch-screen display products have been identified by the companies as the growth drivers in 2015.

Qdos executive director Jeffrey Hwang says for the first quarter of 2015, the company has already secured new projects to develop and manufacture a new range of flex-circuits and integrated circuit (IC) substrates for wearable electronic and Internet of Things (IoT) devices used in the medical and automotive sectors.

IoT are objects with Internet connectivity that allow them to receive and transmit data.

“We plan to commence production of these new products in the third quarter of 2015.

“For 2014 and 2015, the company has allocated RM15mil for designing and development activities to make the new flex-circuits and IC substrates.

“The substrates serve as the connector for the IC chip and the PCB board, which enable the electronic device to function properly,” he says.

Hwang says that the orders for the company’s flex-circuits used in smart devices in the second half of 2014 improved by about 15% over the same period last year.

Qdos’ flex-circuit business generated about 20% of Suiwah’s revenue for the 2014 fiscal year ended May 31, 2014.

MMS Ventures’ managing director (MD) T.K. Sia says the group has secured new projects with international automobile manufacturers to produce testers and handlers to improve the energy-saving LED system used in cars.

“The value of these projects is yet to be fixed, but each test and handling equipment is expected to be priced at RM400,000 to RM500,000, about 40%-50% less than Korean or Japan-made equipment.

“We expect to start commercial production of these equipment in late-2015.

“The automotive segment is expected to generate more than 30% of our turnover for next year,” Sia adds.

Sia says MMS Ventures expects to close the 2014 fiscal year with strong double-digit percentage growth for its revenue and net profit over last year.

“The group is targeting to sell at least 40 units of LED testers and handling equipment in 2014. We have so far delivered 35 units of such equipment, which has an approximate value of about RM30mil, for the smart device and automotive industries.

Automation and robotics

“The equipment was delivered to multinationals in the region and to China, South Korea, the United States and Japan,” Sia adds.

Last year, the group posted RM5mil in net profit on the back of RM27mil in turnover.

PIE Industrial Bhd managing director Alvin Mui says the introduction of automation and robotics in phase one of the plastic injection operation has been completed, while phase 2’s expansion for the plastic injection section is in progress.

These will augur well for this year’s strong fourth-quarter and first-quarter 2015 orders.

The group has secured orders for box-built products used in the medical device and for the touch-screen display segments.

“We will commence production for these products in the first half of 2015,” Mui says.

PIE expects to close 2014 with strong double-digit percentage growth for its revenue compared to last year.

“The year was driven by orders for set-top box and PCB assembly used in industrial motion sensor control and telecommunications products,” he says.

For the nine months of 2014, PIE generated a revenue of RM404mil, which is about 32% higher than the same period last year, and a profit before tax of RM32mil, about 3% lower than the previous corresponding period.

“The net profit softened as a result of a lower-margin product mix and increased provision for slow-moving inventory,” Mui says.

GUH has also received orders and enquiries for its double-sided and multi-layered PCBs used in the energy-saving home appliance industry for the first quarter of 2015.

“We will produce the PCBs for international home appliance brandnames.

“We are shifting to higher-value, double-sided and multi-layered PCBs so as to sustain our margins,” GUH managing director Datuk Kenneth H’ng says .

H’ng said the group’s PCB segment was targeting to achieve a 10% increase from the RM210mil sales achieved last year.

“For the six months of 2014, we have achieved sales of RM115.6mil.

“We are in the process of delivering about RM114mil worth of PCB products in the second half of 2014,” he adds.

About 85% of the PCBs produced in Penang are for the audio and visual segment, while 87% of the PCBs manufactured in Suzhou are for the home appliance and electronic component industries.

STOCKS GO NOWHERE, GOLD RALLIES: Here’s What You Need To Know

MYLES UDLAND

 NOV. 15, 2014

REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann

Gold ended the week with a big day.

Stocks went nowhere to close the week while the price of gold rallied in a quiet Friday for the markets. For the week, each of the equity markets finished with modest gains, lead by the Nasdaq’s 1% advance.

First, the scoreboard:

• Dow: 17,622.1, -31, (-0.2%)
• S&P 500: 2,039, -0.4, (-0.02%)
• Nasdaq: 4,685.5, +5.4, (+0.1%)

And now, the top stories on Friday:

1. In what was otherwise a quiet week for economic data, we got two pieces of positive economic news regarding the health of the US consumer. Retail sales in October rose 0.3% from the prior month, beating expectations for a 0.2% increase, as sales at gasoline stations fell 1.5% against the prior month amid a major bear market for oil. The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer confidence reading for November came in at 89.4, its highest reading since July 2007. 

2. Following the retail sales report, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro said that while sales beat expectations in October, any real boost to consumer spending from the declining price of gas will likely not show up until the November report, though that impact should be larger. Paul Dales at Capital Economics, said the consumer confidence reading indicates there’s a good chance “retailers’ holiday wishes will be granted.”

3. Oil prices keep falling, and Business Insider’s Tomas Hirst has the big outline of the three main reasons being cited for the drop in the commodity: slowing growth in Europe and Asia, more supply drive by the US shale boom, and increased global production. And the International Energy Agency said in a recent report, “a return to previous price highs may not be a close prospect, as it is increasingly clear that we have begun a new chapter in the history of the oil markets.”

4. Virgin America made its debut on the Nasdaq on Friday, and shares of the airline owned by Richard Branson rose more than 30% in their debut, giving the company a valuation of about $1.25 billion. The offering was priced at $23, and shares closed Friday’s session at $x.

5. Despite the lack of action in the equity markets, the “flight to safety” trade — which also saw bonds gain — had a little bit momentum on Friday, lead by the price of gold spiking more than 2% to around $1,190, the highest price for the precious metal since it breached $1,200 back at the end of October.  

6. Hertz shares fell more than 5% on Friday after the company disclosed that its net income will be reduced by $87 million over its fiscal years 2011, 2012, and 2013 after it restates its financial results following an internal review. The company said the biggest errors identified in its probe related to depreciation for some assets and accounts in Brazil, among other items. 

7. It was a quiet week in the markets, but don’t let that lull you to sleep. In a midday email, the NYSE’s Rich Barry said that markets are in “quiet consolidation mode,” but this is okay! “As we noted yesterday, the major indices are technically overbought,” Barry wrote. “This means the recent action we’ve witnessed since the October 15th six-month low has represented nothing less than a buying stampede into stocks. History tells us that ‘overbought’ scenarios are usually corrected either by an abrupt pullback in prices or by a period of boring, sideways consolidation. Today, we are seeing the latter, but our feeling is that next week we might be confronted with the former. Either way, it is okay.”

10 Most Popular Graduate Employers In Malaysia

SHARON TANG

 NOV. 14, 2014

Banking and financial services firms as well as accounting companies topped this year’s ranking of Malaysia’s 100 Leading Graduate Employers.

Lenders Maybank and CIMB Group, and Malaysia’s central bank took three out of the top 10 spots, while Ernst & Young and PricewaterhouseCoopers claimed two.

It was quite a tumble for PricewaterhouseCoopers — the accounting firm fell from the number one spot last year to number 8.

Meanwhile, beleaguered Malaysia Airlines, despite its turmoil, also made it into the top 10, climbing four spots from 13th last year to number 9.

The ranking was compiled from a survey of over 14,000 university students.

Here’s a look at the top ten.

10 Things You Need To Know Before European Markets Open

MIKE BIRD

NOV. 14, 2014, 3:30 PM

REUTERS/Daniel Dal Zennaro/Poo

Good morning! Here are the big news stories having an impact ahead of markets opening in London and Paris. 

French GDP Came In Slightly Better Than Expected.Europe’s second biggest economy registered a 0.3% expansion in the third quarter, a slightly higher figure than analysts thought.

Germany Has Avoided Recession By A Hair. The German economy grew by 0.1% in the third quarter. That’s as weak as growth gets.

Twitter Got Junked. Twitter shares fell more than 5% in afternoon trade on Thursday, giving up almost all of their gains from Wednesday, after the company received a “junk” rating from credit agency S&P.

RBS Is Exiting The US Mortgage Business. Royal Bank of Scotland Plc’s securities unit will now exit its US mortgage trading business after originally planning to shrink it by two-thirds.

US Retail Sales Are Coming. That’s the biggest data release from the US today, at 1.30 p.m. GMT. Analysts are expecting a 0.2% boost for October, after an unexpected 0.3% fall in September.

Takata Says It’s Adding Two Lines At A Mexico Plant To Meet Recall Need. Takata said on Friday it would add two new production lines at its Monclova factory in Mexico to meet replacement demand for air bag inflators at the center of a recall of millions of vehicles worldwide.

Airbus Recorded A Boost In Profit. Airbus Group reported a 12 percent rise in nine-month underlying operating profit on Friday led by its planemaking and helicopter divisions, and reaffirmed its profit forecasts for the year.

European GDP And Inflation Are Coming. At 10 a.m. GMT, we’ll get numbers for the eurozone’s GDP and inflation for Q3 and October respectively. Economists are expecting a 0.4% reading for inflation and just a 0.1% rise in GDP.

Asian Markets Are Up. Japan’s Nikkei climbed again, closing up 0.56%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is also currently up 0.13% just ahead of the close. 

David Cameron Is Warning Of More Sanctions On Russia. Russia could face further sanctions if it does not commit to resolving the conflict in Ukraine, British Prime Minister David Cameron said Friday, as he called Moscow’s actions “unacceptable”.

The 10 Most Important Things In The World Right Now

 

JIM EDWARDs

NOV. 14, 2014, 

Rob Libetti/Business Insider

Another successful IPO.

Here’s what your planet looks like this morning:

1. Growth has come to a halt in Germany. GDP there grew just 0.1%.That’s pathetic. Europe’s economic powerhouse has run out of steam, it seems.

2. Richard Branson just made another £70 million. The IPO of challenger bank Virgin Money raised £1.25 billion overall.

3. Asian markets are up. Japan’s Nikkei climbed again, closing up 0.56%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is also currently up 0.13% just ahead of the close.

4. David Cameron is warning of more sanctions on Russia.Russia could face further sanctions if it does not commit to resolving the conflict in Ukraine, British Prime Minister David Cameron said Friday, as he called Moscow’s actions “unacceptable”.

5. The heirs to the Samsung fortune are cashing in on their stakes as succession looms. An IPO for a unit of Samsung put a value of 5.6 trillion won ($5.09 billion) on shares held by the Samsung Group’s three heirs.

6. The US used spy planes to suck up data from citizens mobile phones. Everyone was targeted, the Wall Street Journal reports. Basically, the tin-foil hat people turned out to be right.

7. The Islamic State has announced it will mint its own currency. And yes, they’ve basically chosen a variation on the gold standard. “The highest-denominated 5 dinar coin is set to contain 21.25 grams of 21 carat gold, worth about $694,” The Financial Times reports. “The purchasing power of the money they’re emitting will be wholly dependent on what the purchasing power of gold, silver and copper are,” a professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University told the FT.

8. People who leave Britain to go fight for Islamic State will be banned from coming back. PM David Cameron proposed the new law in a speech in Australia last night.

9. The market cap of Apple is now bigger than the entire Russian stock market. Bloomberg reports: “If you owned Apple Inc., and sold it, you could purchase the entire stock market of Russia, and still have enough change to buy every Russian an iPhone 6 Plus.”

10. S&P gave a “junk” rating to Twitter’s debt and its stock price dropped 5%. The ratings agency didn’t like the company’s cashflow. Twitter, naturally, disagrees.

And finally …

It doesn’t look good for AC/DC. The rock band’s drummer was behaving erratically even before he was charged with threatening to kill someone, the band says. Bass player Cliff Williams told The Guardian, “We had a few issues before with him, even when we were recording it was hard even to get to him to do the recording … And then he was supposed to show up to do promos with us, to do video shoots and a few shoots and a few other things, and he never showed up for that either. So, at this stage, it’s a pretty tough call for us.”

棕油价每跌RM100损失2亿 森那美（SIME) 首季业绩恐逊色

森那美（SIME，4197，主板贸服股）总执行长丹斯里巴基沙烈表示，原棕油（CPO）价格每滑落100令吉，集团潜在营收损失则会达2亿令吉。

巴基沙烈在股东大会后向媒体指出，原棕油价格会直接影响业绩，“不过，他认为目前的原棕油价格走势还算稳定。”

原棕油在今年9月初，跌至1914令吉的5年最低点后回弹，但涨势因美国大豆油丰收而受到抑制。

相较于去年同期每吨2400令吉至2600令吉水平，目前原棕油价格徘徊在2100令吉至2300令吉水平。

根据森那美年报，截止6月杪财年全年，平均原棕油价格为2451令吉，按年增5.8%。

其他业务可抵消损失

今日闭市时，1月原棕油期货闭市时收每公吨2232令吉，跌27令吉。

虽然巴基沙烈暗示种植业务营收不如上财年同期，但不愿透露现财年关键绩效指标（KPI），仅表示会在本月28日（周五）举行的首季业绩汇报会上公布详情。

“原棕油价格走跌，我们的种植业绩营收当然会受影响，但森那美是一家基础稳健的公司，其他业务可抵消部分损失。”

上财年，森那美种植业务贡献109亿5350万令吉营业额，相等于总营业额的24.9%。

森那美今天收跌1仙或0.1%，报9.6令吉，成交量达510万7900股。

分拆汽车业务进展顺利

问及分拆汽车业务上市的进度，巴基沙烈指正依据计划筹备中。

“我们还在做准备。”

稍前，他公开表示，将脱售非核心业务，并计划在明年上半年分拆上市汽车业务。

根据年报，森那美汽车业务贡献营收的40.4%，相等于177亿4520万令吉。

巴国拟增持至30% 不影响献购新英棕油

森那美在10月初宣布53亿3000万令吉全购新英棕油（NBPOL），但持有后者18%股权的巴布亚新几内亚（PNG）政府表示，有意增持股权至30%。

对此，巴基沙烈并不担心会影响争取新英棕油控制股权，也乐见其成。

“巴国政府提高持股权对我们是好的，我们当然愿意与当地政府成为伙伴，一起发展新英棕油。”

他预料，整个收购计划可在今年圣诞节前完成。

“我们重申取得最少51%控制股权的目标，但现在没有人知道未来会发生什么事。”

他说，虽持有新英棕油49%股权的居林（KULIM，2003，主板种植股）已表示接受献购，但仍需获得股东们点头才能落实。

OIL PLUNGES, TWITTER TANKS: Here’s What You Need To Know

MYLES UDLAND

 NOV. 14, 2014

flickr/IFPRI

Stocks went nowhere, but still made a record high, on Thursday in a session that saw the averages rally early before selling off to trade nearly unchanged. The big story on Thursday was oil, which continued its recent tumble, falling below $75 for the first time since 2011. 

First, the scoreboard:

• Dow: 17,640.2, +28, (+0.1%)
• S&P 500: 2,039, +1, (+0.05%)
• Nasdaq: 4,676.3, +1.1, (+0.02%)

And now, the top stories on Thursday:

1. Crude oil got completely slammed. Again. West Texas Intermediate crude fell more than 3.5% on Thursday to well below $75 a barrel, its lowest level since 2011. WTI crude is now down about 30% from its highs earlier this summer, and in a note to clients economists at Capital Economics wrote that they expect Brent crude prices (which are used as the global benchmark and are currently around $78), to fall to $70 a barrel by 2016, four years earlier than the firm had expected. 

2. The latest report on weekly jobless claims showed claims rose about 12,000 last week to 290,000, though this level is still near 13-year lows. Following the report, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro said that, “absent any shove from tighter policy, claims can remain close to their current trend for an extended period.” 

3. The BLS also released its latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, which showed there were slightly fewer job openings in September than in August, though job openings are still near multi-year highs. The biggest piece of data from the report, however, was the quits rate, which showed a 2% quit rate from workers in September, up from 1.8% the previous month. The report showed 2.8 million workers left their job during September, which a number of Wall Street economists took as a positive sign for the labor market, with the idea being that workers are more likely to leave their job if they are confident they can find another one. 

4. New York Stock Exchange legend Art Cashin highlighted comments from hedge fund manager Paul Singer in his morning note on Thursday, including Singer’s recent commentary that “There is a current set of delusions that is powerful and dangerous: that monetary debasement can be infinitely pursued without consequences.” The New York Times’ Paul Krugman isn’t so sure. 

5. Warren Buffett is buying batteries. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway announced on Thursday that it would acquire the Duracell brand from Procter & Gamble, with P&G getting $4.7 billion worth of its own shares currently held by Berkshire. The deal is expected to close in the second half of next year. 

6. DreamWorks Animation shares gained more than 10% on Thursday after reports from both Deadline.com and The New York Times said the company is in talks with Hasbro regarding a potential deal. But Business Insider’s Kirsten Acuna, highlighting comments from analysts at Sterne Agee, reported that some in the investment community don’t think the deal makes any sense. Hasbro shares fell more than 4% following the news. 

7. Twitter shares fell more than 5% on Thursday, retracing most of their gains from Wednesday, as S&P assigned the company’s debt a ‘BB-’ rating, which is considered “speculative grade” or “junk” by the bond market. 

8. Apple shares gained more than 1% on Thursday, rising to a new all-time high and pushing its market cap to its highest-ever level of $663.2 billion. 

9. Alibaba disclosed that it plans to sell debt to US investors, in a deal that Bloomberg said could be worth $8 billion. 

10. Baker Hughes shares exploded higher late in the day Thursday after a report from The Wall Street Journal said Halliburton is in talks to acquire its oil-field services rival. The report made no mention of a potential price, but shares of Baker Hughes, which were halted for volatility after the news, logged gains of more than 15%. 

Billionaire Investor Ray Dalio Says These 5 Habits Made Him Successful

RICHARD FELONI

 NOV. 14, 2014

AP

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio.

Ray Dalio has been called “Wall Street’s Oddest Duck” for his highly unusual approach to management, but no one has ever questioned his brilliance.

He turned his company Bridgewater Associates into the world’s largest hedge fund, with $160 billion in assets, and amassed a personal fortune estimated at around $15.2 billion.

Dalio runs Bridgewater according to the theory of “radical transparency,” which means that all meetings and interviews are recorded and archived, and any level of employee is encouraged to criticize another if necessary. Every Bridgewater employee is given a copy of the 123-page manual he wrote on leadership.

It includes a section in which Dalio outlines the habits he believes took him from a lower-middle class childhood to one of the most powerful people in finance. We’ve summarized them below:

1. Working for himself and not just doing what others wanted him to do

Dalio writes that he hated school as a boy because he could not find practical applications for things he was forced to memorize. He decided that he wanted to be successful, requiring him to be motivated. And to be motivated, he had to work for himself.

He started delivering newspapers, mowing lawns, and caddying, and at the age of 12 he made his first investment in the stock market.

“All the work I ever did was just what I needed to do to get what I wanted. Since I always had the prerogative to not strive for what I wanted, I never felt forced to do anything,” Dalio writes.

2. Coming up with the best independent opinions he could to advance his goals

When he started investing as a kid, he began cutting out coupons from issues of Fortune magazine that could be mailed in for annual reports for Fortune 500 companies. He gathered as many as possible and took an amateur shot at figuring out the market.

It’s the same attitude he’s taken toward managing his employees. At this point, he’s used to Bridgewater being called cultish and weird, but he’s consistently responded by saying that the employees who work there naturally fit into the firm’s unique culture. And it’s certainly been working for them.

3. Surrounding himself with smart people and learning from the way they thought

Dalio says that as a novice investor, he started the habit of asking the opinion of anyone he deemed a somewhat savvy investor — his stockbroker, the people he caddied for, and even his barber.

“I never cared much about others’ conclusions — only for the reasoning that led to these conclusions,” he writes. “That reasoning had to make sense to me. Through this process, I improved my chances of being right, and I learned a lot from a lot of great people.”

4. Being wary of overconfidence and limiting exposure to high-risk situations

Dalio has grown Bridgewater so tremendously because he lowers his risk as much as possible before making a decision.

“Sometimes when I know that I don’t know which way the coin is going to flip, I try to position myself so that it won’t have an impact on me either way. In other words, I don’t make an inadvertent bet. I try to limit my bets to the limited number of things I am confident in,” he writes.

5. Reflecting on how he made decisions and figuring out why they led to either success or failure

A major portion of Dalio’s manual is dedicated to decision-making and analysis of results. He says that learning to appreciate failure early on was very valuable for him:

I learned that each mistake was probably a reflection of something that I was (or others were) doing wrong, so if I could figure out what that was, I could learn how to be more effective. I learned that wrestling with my problems, mistakes, and weaknesses was the training that strengthened me. Also, I learned that it was the pain of this wrestling that made me and those around me appreciate our successes.

YouTube Superstar Michelle Phan Shares Her Tips For Building A Social Media Brand

MADELINE STONe

 NOV. 14, 2014

YouTube

With more than 7 YouTube million subscribers, her own L’Oreal line, and a growing e-commerce beauty startup, hair-and-makeup guru Michelle Phan is one of the most successful YouTubers ever. 

But getting to the top was no easy task. Phan told Re/code that she was once rejected from a job at a Lancome makeup counter because she had no sales experience, and she and her family lived on food stamps for a period of time. 

Phan recently released a book called “Make Up: Your Life Guide to Beauty, Style and Success — Online and Off.” In it, she tells the story of how she turned makeup tutorials into a full-blown media empire. 

Her book also offers some advice for establishing a solid social media presence. 

1. Choose a platform. 

Phan says it’s a good idea to continue using the platforms you already use to communicate with friends and family, then develop a presence on the platforms that are most frequented by your target audience.

If you’re starting a blog, text-heavy formats like Twitter are a good place to start, while photographers should go for a medium that prioritizes visual content, like Instagram. 

“Don’t feel you need to go with the most popular platform,” she writes. “Pick the one that has the strongest community that will support your vision.” 

2. Claim your name, and keep it consistent. 

It’s important to create a profile on a platform that’s just starting to become more popular. 

“Social media is an ever-changing world,” Phan writes. “You want to be ready if a certain platform becomes red-hot, and you don’t want someone else taking your company name as his or her handle. That does happen!” 

Make sure you have the same name across all of the platforms you use — it’s essential for defining your brand. 

3. Create content that’s new and fresh.

Interesting, diverse content is the most important part of amassing a follower base. Pick a topic and become an expert at it.

“You need interesting content that entertains or informs — preferably both,” she writes. “You want people to look forward to your posts and come back for more. People want to follow you. They want to hear your words and see your vision.” 

YouTube

4. Make a schedule. 

Becoming a social media guru does involve a significant time commitment. Sticking to a schedule, or posting different kinds of content on different days, will help you avoid annoying your followers. 

“You need to carve out time (preferably daily) to monitor and update. This is why it’s best to focus on one or two platforms and commit to doing them well,” Phan writes. “Robust activity on one site is so much better than halfhearted activity on multiple sites.”

5. Engage with your followers. 

Picking the right people to follow can give you a big advantage. 

According to Phan, “part of having a social media strategy is being smart about whom you follow. Ask yourself who is important to your company or brand. Figure out who needs to know you exist.” 

And once they know you exist, be sure to interact with them. 

“That old saying ‘If you build it, they will come’ doesn’t apply to social media,” she writes. “You need to be, well, social, and put out that virtual welcome mat.” 

Some Economists Think Brent Crude Will Drop To $70 And ‘The World Will Soon Be Awash With Oil’

MIKE BIRD

NOV. 13, 2014

REUTERS/Supri

That’s according to the guys over at Capital Economics: they’d been expecting a drop in the oil price but they didn’t think it would fall to $80 per barrel (as it did yesterday and today) until 2016.

So they’re accelerating their forecasts, and suggesting the world will “soon be awash with oil,” cutting the per-barrel Brent Crude price to just $70 (£44.4) by the end of 2016, four years earlier than they previously thought. 

Here’s the basis of their bullish case: 

• Less risk from the middle east. The turmoil and wars around the Arab Spring have kept prices elevated, but the outlook isn’t quite as dramatic any more.
• Saudi and the other Gulf states aren’t particularly unhappy.  Despite the drop in prices, there’s been no knee jerk reaction from the Arab world’s massive oil producers yet.
• Demand is likely to be weak. Even if OPEC, the oil producing countries’ cartel, did cut supply, demand is pretty weak. With a modest to poor growth outlook for most of the world’s advanced economy, and a slowdown in China, Capital Economics’ Julian Jessop and Thomas Pugh think there’s going to continue to be downward pressure on prices.
• Other factors could offset the drop in shale production. Falling oil prices will likely hurt US shale production, because of the relatively expensive cost of extracting the gas. But that’s likely to have a limited effect, and other potential factors like a loosening of sanctions on Iran could have a much larger effect and push prices down further.

Though they’re forecasting $75 per barrel by the end of 2015 and $70 by the end of 2016, they add: “Given the current negative sentiment in the market, it is clearly possible that $70 could be hit much sooner… we believe that lower oil prices are here to stay.” 

A Popular Currency Trading Website Vanished Overnight And $1 Billion Disappeared With It

MIKE BIRD

 NOV. 13, 2014

Domain Tools

A popular currency trading website that gained popularity with small investors suddenly disappeared earlier this, and could have taken more than $1 billion with it, Bloomberg reports. 

Secureinvestment.com — which was briefly more popular than widely-trusted currency trading platform  forex.com — vanished to the dismay of the many small investors who trusted the site with their savings.

According to Bloomberg Markets: 

Secure Investment said that it traded in excess of $4.8 billion daily for more than 100,000 investors in 140 countries. The company said it posted all of its trades every day, showing which ones were winners and which were losers. The site said investors had averaged net gains of 1 percent each trading day during the past five years…

The site said that those average gains of 1 percent daily couldn’t be compounded into an annual return. Even without compounding, those kinds of daily returns would amount to an annual gain of about 250 percent — or more than 25 times the average annual return of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, with dividends reinvested, for the past 50 years. Secure Investment didn’t provide that kind of context.

But the site disappeared in May this year. Rajibuddin Mandal, a doctor in England, told Bloomberg that he received an email from Secure on April 30: “Our Technical Department is currently working on system updates. Our company sincerely apologises for any temporary glitches that may occur.”

The website went offline the next day and it doesn’t look like it’s coming back. According to Bloomberg, Mandal’s entire $60,000 investment has probably disappeared forever.

Here’s what the site looked like in August 2013:

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Secure Investments was linked to a fake address in Panama, as well as invented offices in Hong Kong, Singapore and London. Customers were asked to transfer funds to banks all over the world and were fobbed off with excuses when they attempted to withdraw the money. 

The news also serves as a bit of a warning about believing video testimonials. Many of those on secureinvestment.com were done by actors. Bloomberg explains: 

Secure’s website included 54 video testimonials, supposedly from investors; a six-minute infomercial; and three animated cartoons.

One testimonial is from a bearded man wearing a jacket and tie. After introducing himself as Michael, he praises Secure in an 80-second video. He says he’s pleased with his return on investment.

“Every year, I’ve watched my ROI grow,” he says. “I’m getting closer and closer to my retirement goals. They take all the stress out of it.”

Michael is actually Al Eddy from Chattanooga, Tennessee. Eddy, 42, who has recorded video endorsements for a fee, says he was hired by an intermediary for Secure and paid $20 to perform as Michael. He says he’s never invested with Secure, nor traded forex nor even purchased a share of stock. Nothing he said in his endorsement is true, Eddy says, adding that he no longer does testimonials.

The site’s been gone since May, and it doesn’t look like it’s coming back.