STOCKS SURGE TO RECORD HIGH: Here’s What You Need To Know

SAM RO

 NOV. 1, 2014

REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

The stock market is right back at all-time highs.

First, the scoreboard:

• Dow: 17,368.9, +173.5, (+1.0%)
• S&P 500:2.013.1, +18.5, (+0.9%)
• Nasdaq:4,625.1, +58.9, (+1.2%)

And now, the top stories on Wednesday:

1. The rally really began in Japan when two pieces of news crossed. First, Nikkei reported that Japan’s $1.2 trillion behemoth Government Pension Investment Fund would ramp up its exposure to foreign and domestic stocks. Second, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly announced a big boost to its quantitative easing stimulus program. The Nikkei went bonkers, surging 4.8% to close at a 7-year high.

2. The US had some good economic news. The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index unexpectedly jumped to 86.0 in October from 84.6 a month ago. The Chicago PMI unexpectedly spiked to a 12-month high of 66.2 in October from 60.5 in September. “The bounceback in the Barometer marks a solid start to Q4 and suggests that against a backdrop of concerns about weakening growth in Europe and China, the US economy is still growing firmly,” ISM— Chicago said in its release.

3. In a sign of labor market tightness, the employment cost index jumped 0.7% in Q3. “This is the fastest pace of quarterly compensation that we have seen since late 2008,” BNP Paribas’ Bricklin Dwyer noted. “The measure popped up to 2.2% y/y, accelerating from the previous 10-month’s 1.8-2.0% range.”

4. The stock market has been on an absolute wild ride in the last two months. It went from its all-time intraday high of 2,019 on September 19 (all-time closing high 2,011.36 on September 18) down its October 15 low of 1,820.66. The Dow set an intraday all-time high of 17,395 today.

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

MIKE BIRD

 OCT. 31, 2014

REUTERS/Toru Hanai

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda smiles as he leaves the International Conference on the Future of Asia in Tokyo May 24, 2013.

Good morning! Here are the major stories making headlines and moving markets globally early Friday.

Japan Shocked Markets With More QE. In the face of disappointing inflation, Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda has hiked Japan’s bond purchases, and the Nikkei soared to a six year high. 

The Eurozone’s Inflation Ticked Up A Little. Eurozone inflation rose to 0.4%, taking pressure to ease off the European Central Bank a little, but not much: the core measure of inflation is at its joint-lowest in history. 

Russia Hiked Interest Rates Massively. The Russian central bank raised rates by 150 basis points to 9.5% in a gamble that higher rates will halt the ruble’s slide against the dollar and the euro.

German Retail Sales Fell Through The Floor. Germany’s retail sales dropped 3.2% in September, the worst monthly decline since May 2008.  

European Stocks Are Surging. France’s CAC 40 index is up 2.03%, Germany’s DAX is up 1.75% and the UK’s FTSE 100 is up 1.11%. That’s after a massive rally which sent the Nikkei up 4.83%.

Ukraine Seems To Have Brokered A Gas Deal With Russia. Russia agreed to resume gas deliveries to Ukraine through the winter in an EU-brokered deal reached by the three parties in Brussels on Thursday, an EU source said. 

Consumer Spending Is Coming. Personal income and spending figures from the US are coming, at 8:30 a.m. ET, figures that should give some idea of the economy’s strength in September. 

RBS Is Braced For $639 Million Of Fines. State-owned Royal Bank of Scotland has set aside £400 million (€509 million) to settle allegations of price-rigging in foreign exchange markets. 

Sony Reported A Narrower Q2 Loss Than Expected. Operating loss reached 85.6 billion yen ($771 million) in July-September, compared with the 164.3 billion yen average estimate of three analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.

Carimin Petroleum public tranche oversubscribed 22.1 times

Carimin Petroleum Bhd’s initial public offer of 11.70 million shares at RM1.10 for the public was oversubscribed by 22.1 times.

The offshore oil and gas (O&G) support services company said on Friday there were 13,421 applications for 269.70 million shares.

The IPO comprised of a public issue of 60.7 million new ordinary shares and an offer-for-sale of 5.9 million vendor shares.  Carimin is scheduled to list on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia on Nov 10.

Its managing director Mokhtar Hashim said despite the current volatility in the O&G sector, the significant oversubscription of its IPO reflected the investing public's strong confidence in the company’s growth prospects and its underlying fundamentals as one of the leading providers of O&G support services.

“Carimin's upcoming listing is a key milestone that grants us access to capital for capacity building, to better execute ongoing projects and strengthen our technical capabilities. At the same time, being a listed entity backed with strong track record would boost our profile for future tenders," he said.

The company provides offshore hook-up and commissioning (HUC), platform maintenance services, and supplies skilled workers for the O&G industry in Malaysia. 

Its clientele include O&G majors such as Petronas Carigali, Shell, Murphy Oil, Talisman, Exxon Mobil and Newfield.

As at end-September 2014, Carimin’s work value in hand was RM900.8mil and  scheduled for delivery until 2018.

For the FY ended 30 June 2011 to 2014, Carimin recorded a 15.7% in compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in revenue to RM245.6 million. Net profit rose 32.0% CAGR to reach RM21.9mil in the same period.

Of the RM66.80mil to be raised from the IPO, RM35.3mil would be used to purchase an accommodation workboat, RM12mil to upgrade the group's fabrication yard in Kemaman and RM8mil to repay of bank borrowings. Another RM8mil would be used as working capital and the remaining RM3.5mil to defray listing expenses.

European Markets Are Climbing After A Huge Rally In Asia

MIKE BIRD

OCT. 31, 2014

REUTERS/Stringer

European stocks are climbing.

European stocks are all climbing Friday morning, after a big Asian boost following Japan’s unexpected decision to extend its quantitative easing program.

Here’s the scorecard:

France’s CAC 40 is up 1.62%

Spain’s IBEX is up 1.48%

Italy’s FTSE MIB is up 1.45%

Britain’s FTSE 100 is up 0.92%

Germany’s DAX is up 1.53%

Asian markets saw a massive rally. The Nikkei closed up 4.83%. The Hang Sengclosed up 1.25%.

US futures are climbing too: The S&P is up 16.75 points and the Dow is up 149 points. 

This morning, we’ve already had some terrible retail sales figures for Germany: with a 3.2% drop in September, they are the worst since 2007.

From Europe, at 6:00 a.m ET, we have inflation and unemployment numbers. Analysts expect that unemployment stayed basically flat in the eurozone in September, and that inflation crept up from 0.3% to 0.4% in October, remaining extremely depressed. 

At 8:30 a.m. ET from the US, personal spending data is out. Analysts are expecting a 0.3% boost to personal income and a 0.1% boost to spending for September. 

Japan Just Boosted QE And The Nikkei Exploded To A Seven Year High

MIKE BIRD

 OCT. 31, 2014

The Bank of Japan just boosted QE, and the Nikkei closed up 4.83%, hitting a 2007 high.

In a tight vote the BoJ backed an 80 trillion yen ($720 billion) target for expanding the monetary base (a measure of the amount of money held by the central bank and in the economy). That’s up from a 60-70 trillion yen target before.

No prizes for spotting the announcement on this graph of the Nikkei: 

Bloomberg

This was a major unexpected move by Haruhiko Kuroda, the Bank of Japan’s governor, and a big new chapter in the country’s ‘Abenomics’ experiment, named after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. 

It’s all in reaction to a slowdown in inflation: the BoJ has committed itself to reaching a 2% inflation target, but core inflation dropped from 1.1% to 1% in October, the lowest in nearly a year.

The dollar and yen are reacting pretty much as you’d expect too. Here the dollar is is, up 1.76% against the dollar. 111 yen to the dollar is the highest since 2008. 

Bloomberg

The 10 Most Important Things In The World Right Now

DINA SPECTOr 

REUTERS/Finbarr O’Reilly

An Israeli policeman aims his weapon during clashes with Palestinians inside the old city of Jerusalem Oct. 30, 2014.

Good morning! Here’s what you need to know for Friday.

1. The Bank of Japan unexpectedly announced Friday morning that it would ease monetary policy due to concerns about falling oil prices. 

2. Israel is reopening a holy site in Jerusalem, which was closed on Thursday for the first time in many years “after an Israeli counter-terrorism unit killed a Palestinian man suspected of trying the night before to assassinate a leading agitator for increased Jewish access to the site,” The New York Times explained. 

3. Sweden has become the largest European nation to recognize Palestine as a state. 

4.  A Human Rights Watch report released on Thursday describes a horrific incident in which ISIS militants lined up 600 Shia, Christian, and Yazidi male prisoners and executed them at point blank range. 

5. Apple CEO Tim Cook has publicly come out as gay. 

6. After months of drawn-out negotiations, Russia has guaranteed it will deliver gas supplies to Ukraine through March. 

7. Andy Rubin, the Google executive who created Android, is out of the company. 

8. Doctors Without Borders warned that its “too early to draw conclusions” about the spread of Ebola following the World Health Organisation’s promising announcement that Ebola might be slowing down in Liberia. 

9. In an effort to curb climate change, Australia said it was going to pay companies to reduce emissions, a plan that has been harshly criticized as being ineffective. 

10. Beijing has banned the wearing of Halloween costumes on the subway because it might cause “panic.”

And finally…

People are upset that the mannequins at Top Shop have legs that are unrealistically thin. 

SMRT cheapest education stock on Bursa: CIMB Research

Friday, 31 October 2014

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research believes that SMRT is the cheapest education stock on Bursa Malaysia.

It said on Friday with 80% recurring revenue and a projected 35% to 50% three-year EPS CAGR, in turn supported by its medical university and English language teacher training contracts, this under-researched gem is poised for a re-rating.

CIMB Research said SMRT is trading at only 9 times to 11 times FY16 price-to-earnings (P/E).

“Assuming SMRT’s FY16 net profit to be around RM21mil to RM27.5mil (without Pro ELT and with Pro ELT) and pegging the value of the stock at 16 times FY16 P/E (in line with the education sector), it could trade up to RM1.04  to  RM1.38, giving investors 40-86% upside.

“Potential re-rating catalysts are its transfer from the ACE Market to the Main Board and award of the Pro ELT contract,” it said.

保罗·克鲁格曼：意识形态与投资

新经学 10月29日

        美国著名专栏作家及诺贝尔经济学奖获得者保罗·克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman）在10月24日发表专栏文章《意识形态与投资》，指出美国共和党人一味地强调预算平衡，并为此而拼命压抑公共投资，这只会让美国经济止步不前，让民众看不到经济复苏的希望。以下是全文，供参考。

        

        美国曾是一个为未来而建设的国家。有时候，美国政府表现得很直接，例如推行公共工程（从伊利运河到州际高速公路系统），为经济发展提供了强大的支撑。有时候，它鼓励支持私营部门，例如，为刺激建设铁路的用地许可。不管怎样，总是有大量人支持投资，这使我们更加富有。 

        但现在，即便投资需求显而易见，即便时机好的不能再好，我们也根本不会投资。不要告诉我这个问题是“政治阻挠”或者其他一些跑题的说法，以图逃避责任。我们不投资并不是说“华盛顿”有麻烦，这反映的是一种破坏性的意识形态，它已经控制了共和党。 

        这里有些背景需要说明：房地产泡沫破灭已时过七年，自打那时起，美国就一直在进行省钱——或者更准确的来说，期望省钱——因为它无路可走了。贷款买房行为得到了很大地恢复，但比率仍然很低。企业赚取了巨额的利益，但仍然不愿意对消费需求疲弱的市场进行投资，因此，他们囤积现金或回购股票。银行持有近2.7万亿美元的超额备用金，这些备用金原本可以贷出去，但却他们选择了闲置。 

        期望的省钱和投资的意愿之间的差异使得经济持续低迷。记住，你的消费就是我的收入，我的消费即是你的收入。因此，如果每个人都试图同时少消费一点，那么每个人的收入就会同时减少。 

        应对这个情况，有个显而易见的政策，即公共投资。我们有巨大的基础设施建设的需求，尤其是水利和交通，联邦政府可以极为便宜的价格借贷——事实上，通胀保值债券的利率在大多数时候都是不乐观的（现在是0.4%）。因此，贷款修路、修下水道或者其它工程似乎都是显而易见的。可是，事实切好相反。就在奥巴马刺激经济的计划生效后不长的时间，公共工程支出骤降。这是什么原因？ 

        从直观上看，公共投资的下降反映了州和地方政府的财政困境——它依赖的是大量公共投资。 

        在法律上，这些政府必须达到平衡预算，但是，在经济衰退时，他们却看到收入暴跌，某些费用增加。因此，他们推迟或者取消了大批建设项目，以节省资金。 

        然而，这原本不需要如此。美国联邦政府原本能很容易地向各州提供援助——事实上，刺激经济的法案中就包括这种援助，这也是公共投资短期增加的主要原因。但是，一旦共和党控制了众议院，任何投资基础设施的钱都将“消失”。共和党人一度谈论想要花更多的钱，但他们却又阻止奥巴马政府的所有倡议。 

        这都是意识形态上的事情，是一种过分反对任何形式的政府开支的行为。这种反对从攻击社会项目开始，尤其是那些援助穷人的项目，但随着时间的推移，它将扩大到反对任何形式的支出，无论多么必要，无论什么国家什么经济体制。 

        看看预算委员会主席保罗·瑞安（Paul Ryan）领导下的众议院共和党人的提案，即可感觉到这种意识形态。例如，2011年，即使在面对高失业率和被视为“凯恩斯主义”的观念前，以《花的少、欠的少，经济就发展》（Spend Less, Owe Less, Grow the Economy）为题的2011年宣言呼吁大幅削减开支，“减少政府支出、减少政府投资基础设施”。（我认为这只是算数，我并不知道这是怎么回事。）或者从《华尔街日报》中选取一篇题为《伟大的错误》（The Great Misallocators）的文章，声称任何政府的支出都会把资源转移到私营部门，而后者总能更好利用这些资源。 

        没关系，这种断言下的经济模型在实践中都彻底失败了，说这些话的人又在预测失控的通货膨胀和年复一年攀升的利率，一直在犯错误。他们不是重新思考自己观念和证据的人。同样，也没关系，私营部门不会供应大部分基础设施（从地方公路到排水系统）。这种区别已在“私营部门很好，政府做的不足”的言论中又不复存在了。 

        正如我所说，结果是美国背弃了自己的历史。我们需要公共投资；在利率很低的时候，我们很容易负担。但是，我们不会投资！

        译者：谭源星

Pavilion REIT Q3 earnings higher at RM63mil

 Pavilion Real Estate Investment Trust’s (REIT) earnings rose to RM63.03mil in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2014 boosted by higher net property income but it expects the rest of 2014 and 2015 to be challenging.

In its statement issued on Thursday, the earnings were 19% higher compared with RM52.95mil a year ago.

The concerns were the potential increase in cost of some items / services due to the gradual removal of government subsidies and the impending GST implementation in April 2015. 

“Furthermore, filling up office spaces / vacancies remain a challenge with the many options available,” it said.

Pavilion REIT said income before tax for the quarter under review was RM63.0 million, which was RM10.1mil or 19% higher than Q3, 2013 mainly due to higher net property income. Distributable income was RM64.9mil or 2.16 sen per unit, consisting of income after tax of RM63mil.

Revenue increased by 8.8% to RM101.43mil from RM93.20mil. Earnings per share were 2.09 sen compared with 1.76 sen. The higher revenue was mainly contributed by rental reversion after all due tenancies have been renewed from Q3, 2013. 

“Total property operating expenses was lower by RM2.3 million or 8% as compared to Q3 2013. This was mainly due to the reversal of overprovision of assessment charges recorded in the first half of 2014 and recognition of credit / overcharge of electricity charges on one of the electricity metering system by Tenaga Nasional Bhd. 

“These were off-set by the incurrence of repair and preventive maintenance work and maintenance cost incurred for some advertising sites. These have resulted in total net property income increased by RM10.6mil or 16% in Q3, 2014 as compared to Q3, 2013,” it said.

For the nine months ended Sept 30, 2014, its earnings were RM175.29mil. This was an increase of 10.1% from RM159.17mil in the previous corresponding period.

Pavilion REIT’s revenue during the period rose to RM301.22mil from RM279.06mil.

Maybank, DNeX in online financing platform tie-up

Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) and Dagang NeXchange Bhd (DNeX) are collaborating to launch a centralised online trade financing facility platform that targets RM5bil worth of trade financing in three years.

The platform, myTrade2Cash, is aimed at Malaysian-based small and medium enterprise (SME) exporters.

It is estimated to serve more than 100,000 SME customers nationwide via the National Single Window e-Commerce Trade Facilitation service managed by DNeX.

“This is also expected to significantly boost Maybank’s total trade finance volume,” the company said in a statement.

STOCKS RALLY, GOLD TUMBLES: Here’s What You Need To Know

SAM RO

 OCT. 31, 2014

REUTERS/U.S. Geological Survey

A slow-moving lava flow from the Kilauea Volcano burns vegetation as it approaches a property boundary in a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) image taken near the village of Pahoa, Hawaii, October 28, 2014.

The stock market extended its rebound back toward all-time highs.

First, the scoreboard:

• Dow: 17,196.4, +222.1, (+1.3%)
• S&P 500: 1,994.6, +12.3, (+0.6%)
• Nasdaq: 4,554, +5.0, (+0.1%)

And now, the top stories on Wednesday:

1. The Dow far outpaced the rest of the market because of Visa, which surged 10% after its better-than-expected earnings announcement. Because it’s a price-weighted index, the 21-point rally in the Visa is adding a full 134 points to the Dow. (Currently, a 1-point move in the Dow translates to a 6.42195-point move in the Dow.)

2. US GDP grew at a 3.5% pace in Q3, beating expectations for 3.0% growth. Personal consumption climbed 1.8%, which was a bit lighter than the 1.9% expected. Real final sales (GDP less the change in private inventories) jumped 4.2%, up from 3.2% in Q2.

3. Notably, government spending jumped 4.6%, adding 0.83 percentage points to the GDP growth rate. “After being such a massive drag on the economy in recent years, the public sector is now a big positive,” Capital Economics’ Paul Ashworth said.

4. Different economists were surprised by different components of the GDP report. “The big upside surprise in the data is the residential investment component, where the 1.8% increase is impossible to square with the monthly construction data — we expected a 10% drop — and a downward revision in due course is a decent bet,” Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Ian Shepherdson noted.

5. Initial jobless claims climbed to 287,000 from 284,000 a week ago. This was a bit higher than the 285,000 expected. The four-week moving average sat at 281,000, the lowest level since 2000. “Looking past weekly volatility, trend initial jobless claims remain at extremely low levels and are consistent with our outlook for further improvement in labor markets,” Barclays’ Jesse Hurwitz said.

6. Gold fell below $1,200 again for the first time in a month. The yellow metal fell from around $1,215 to as low as $1,196.

GOLD BREAKS $1200

AKIN OYEDELe

 OCT. 30, 2014

REUTERS/David Gray

Gold fell below $1,200 an ounce.

Prices slid from Wednesday’s high of $1,216.50 to as low as $1,195.50 minutes ago.

Thursday’s sell-off comes after the BEA reported the US economy grew by 3.5% in Q3, beating expectations for just 3.0% growth. 

The yellow metal was once widely considered a safe-haven investment. However, the price of gold has performed dismally in recent years.

Gold briefly dipped below $1,200 earlier this month.

“Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.” That’s what Warren Buffett said back in 1998.

Here’s a chart from FinViz showing the decline in the gold price this morning:

FinViz

And here’s the ugly chart for silver trading down to a 55-month low:

FinViz

Terrible Things Happen All Of The Time And The Stock Market Keeps Going Up

SAM RO

OCT. 30, 2014

Dr. Ed’s Blog

After an incredible 5-year bull market run, which saw the S&P 500 double from its March 2009 low of 666, many stock market watchers were sure this would be the year that things would finally turn.

There certainly has been no shortage of bad news that would cause investors and traders to sell.

“Just this year alone, the list of anxiety-provoking events has been a long one: Emerging markets mini crisis (January 23), Crimea invasion (February 28), Yellen rate-hike scare (March 19), momentum stocks meltdown (April 3), ISIS invasion of Iraq (June 10), Portuguese bank panic (July 10), Malaysian jet crisis (July 17), sanctions imposed on Russia (July 29), and the global growth and Ebola scares (September 30),” writes stock market guru Ed Yardeni.

“And the year isn’t even over yet.”

Yardeni’s listing of bad news echoes of Warren Buffett’s New York Times op-ed from the darkest days of the financial crisis in October 2008. Here’s an excerpt:

…A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497…

Unexpected tragedies and disasters are just a part of life and investing. This doesn’t mean the stock market won’t crash tomorrow or next. All this means is that investors should never be surprised to see stock prices rise amid horrible news.

Keep in mind, stocks are a discounting mechanism, which means much of their value is derived from expectations for the future, not the news of the present.

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

MIKE BIRD

OCT. 30, 2014

REUTERS/Amit Dave

Good morning! Here are the major stories making an impact early Thursday.

Rosneft’s Profits Are Collapsing. Rosneft, Russia’s biggest oil producer, reported a net profit of just 1 billion rubles ($23 million) in the third quarter, down from 172 billion rubles ($3 billion) in the previous quarter

German Unemployment Took An Unexpected Plunge. According to figures out Thursday from the country’s statistical agency, the number of people out of work and looking fell by 22,000 in October. The rate stays unchanged at 6.7%.

Modi Madness Catapulted India Stocks To Record Highs. India’s Sensex stock index is climbing to record intraday highs early Thursday. It’s up 0.92% today so far, sitting at 27,265.73 currently.

European Business Sentiment Ticked Up. After four months of stagnation or decline, economic sentiment among business managers in Europe has finally picked up in the euro currency area (by 0.8 points to 100.7).

Chad Holliday Will Be Shell’s First American Chairman. Bank of America’s ex-chairman Chad Holliday is about to become oil giant Shell’s chairman, according to a filing from the massive multinational Thursday morning. 

European Markets Are Getting Hit. After opening up, the major European equities indices are taking a beating. France’s CAC 40 is down 1.11%, Germany’s DAX is down 1.40% and the FTSE 100 is down 1.04%.

Barclays Is Braced For An $800 Million Forex Fine. Barclays on Thursday set aside £500 million ($800 million) linked to probes into price-rigging allegations in foreign exchange markets, and posted slumping third-quarter net profits.

US GDP Is Coming. Third quarter GDP figures will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, with analysts expecting 3% annualized growth, a slight slowdown from the second quarter. 

Retailers Are Changing Their View On Apple Pay. MCX CEO Dekkers Davidson shot down an earlier report from The New York Timesthat said MCX members would suffer fines or penalties if they accepted Apple Pay.

Samsung Profits Are Sinking. Samsung Electronics says its third-quarter income has plunged 49% to the lowest level in nearly three years as its handset business slows down.

刘楚群每股69.7仙 再增持婆罗洲石油（BORNOIL)

亚洲马赛地大亨丹斯里刘楚群，再次增持婆罗洲石油（BORNOIL，7036，主板贸服股）股权，巩固大股东地位。

根据文告，刘楚群是在周一（27日）通过旗下合成保险服务私人有限公司，以每股69.7仙，购入694万4600股，相等于2.47%股权。

持股25.5%

他是在10月3日入股婆罗洲石油，首次即买进5306万1700股，或19.1%股权，晋升为大股东。

随后，再以每股72仙，增持1100万股，将股权推高至23.1%。

随着昨天再次增持股权，刘楚群目前的持股率已达25.5%。

获刘楚群“加持”后，婆罗洲石油的股价生色不少，迄今涨幅已达38.33%。

该股全天扬升0.5仙，或0.6%，收报83.5仙，成交量553万4400股。

The Fed Is Taking Away The Punch Bowl — Here’s What Usually Happens To Stocks When They Do That

HENRY BLODGET

 OCT. 30, 2014

AP Images

That’s enough for now, boys.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen made it official yesterday:

After nearly a year of “tapering,”the Fed is done buying bonds. The next step, barring a deterioration in the economy, will be to raise interest rates.

Slowly but surely, in other words, the Fed is taking away the punch bowl.

That’s generally not good news for stock prices.

For the past five years, the Fed has been frantically pumping money into the financial system, keeping interest rates low to encourage hedge funds and other investors to borrow and speculate. This free money, and the resulting speculation, has helped drive stocks to their current very expensive levels.

But now the Fed’s policy is moving the other way.

To be sure, for now, the Fed is still pumping oceans of money into Wall Street. And if you limit your definition of “tightening” to “raising interest rates,” the Fed is not yet tightening. But, in the past, it has arguably been the change in direction of Fed money-pumping that has been important to the stock market, not the absolute level. 

In the past, major changes in direction of Fed money-pumping have often been followed by changes in direction of stock prices.

Not immediately.

And not always.

But often.

Let’s go to the history …

Here’s a look at the past 50 years. The blue line is the Fed Funds rate (a proxy for the level of Fed money-pumping.) The red line is the S&P 500. We’ll zoom in on specific periods in a moment. Here, just note that Fed policy goes through “tightening” and “easing” phases, just as stocks go through bull and bear markets. And sometimes these phases are correlated.

Business Insider, St. Louis Fed

Now, lets zoom in. In many of these time periods, you’ll see that sustained Fed tightening has often been followed by a decline in stock prices. Again, not immediately, and not always, but often. You’ll also see that most major declines in stock prices over this period have been preceded by Fed tightening. 

Here’s the first period, 1964 to 1980. There were three big tightening phases during this period (blue line) … and three big stock drops (red line). Good correlation!

Business Insider, St. Louis Fed

Now 1975 to 1982. The Fed started tightening in 1976, at which point the market declined and then flattened for four years. Steeper tightening cycles in 1979 and 1980 were also followed by price drops.

Business Insider, St. Louis Fed

From 1978 to 1990, we see the two drawdowns described above, as well as another tightening cycle followed by flattening stock prices in the late 1980s. Again, tightening precedes market drops.

Business Insider, St. Louis Fed

And, lastly, 1990 to 2014. For those who want to believe that Fed tightening is irrelevant, there’s good news here: A sharp tightening cycle in the mid-1990s did not lead to a crash! Alas, two other tightening cycles, one in 1999 to 2000 and the other from 2004 to 2007 were followed by major stock market crashes.

Business Insider, St. Louis Fed

One of the oldest sayings on Wall Street is “Don’t fight the Fed.” This saying has meaning in both directions, when the Fed is easing and when it is tightening. A glance at these charts shows why.

On the positive side, the Fed’s tightening phases have often lasted a year or two before stock prices peaked and began to drop. So even if you’re convinced that sustained Fed tightening is now likely to lead to a sharp stock-price pullback at some point, the bull market might still have a ways to run.